PETER BRIMELOW
Star performer relies on the stars
Commentary: Crawford uses astrology to compile year’s best record to date
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:22 p.m. EST Nov. 9, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) – The top-performing letter for this terrible year to date is an astrologer. It figures.
Or maybe it doesn’t figure. I remember having a huge hassle with Barron’s great editor, Alan Abelson, way back in the early 1980s, about whether I should report a conference at which the 2008 top performer, Arch Crawford of Crawford Perspectives, was to speak.
Alan’s view: It was hogwash. My view: Who cared? It was interesting. (By the way: As a good liberal, Alan conceded.)
Now, of course, I would point to the Hulbert Financial Digest ratings. Never mind the system, feel the results.
But Arch Crawford provided a different rationale. Astrology conferences, he said, were great places to meet girls.
Which, I guess, was valuable investment advice.
You got a problem with that?
Over the year to date through October, Crawford Perspectives is up a breathtaking 36% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, vs. negative 32.94% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000.
Over the past 12 months, Crawford is up 6% vs. negative 36.3% for the total return DJ-Wilshire 5000.
This is not a flash in the pan … well, not completely. Over the past five years, the Crawford letter has achieved an annualized gain of 3.1%, vs. 0.8% annualized for the total return DJ-W.
But over the entire period that the HFD has monitored Crawford, the letter has achieved only a 4.7% annualized gain, vs. 8.8% annualized for the total return DJ-W 5000.
This is because, every once in a while, Crawford’s hot hand turns into a cold claw.
For example, Crawford was one the 10 worst-performing letters of 2006. See Dec. 29, 2006 column
Nevertheless, Crawford has been basically short for the last several months at a very propitious time.
Right now he says: "The full moon of Nov. 13 is in tight harmonic aspect with the position of planet Neptune, forming the angle of a “T” within one quarter of one degree! Expect a trading rally in inflation-hedge commodities (gold, oil, CRB, etc.) to begin a few days prior and maximize on or very near that full-moon day. If you have familiarity with trading these vehicles, BUY any positive technical break-out from today forward. Then SELL and SHORT on Nov. 13, most likely in the earlier half of the day. Possibility exists for a double top on Monday, Nov. 17. After that one might add a trailing top-loss or simply hold into the first week in December."
My reaction to this: hmmm.
Crawford continues: "In addition, Mercury enters Scorpio on election day. We have noticed that maximum numbers of planets in Water signs (of the Fire, Earth, Air, Water categories) often coincides with panic lows in stocks. That would point up the period Nov. 5-16 as a potential panic bottom."
Crawford thinks this pause will be significant: "We have quoted this warning over the last few months: We have been bullish on assets in the ground and particularly gold, metals, oil since April 4, 2001. We are now becoming a bit more skeptical about much more immediate continuation in the inflation hedges, looking instead for a few more weeks, and possibly months in correctional phases.
"The long term, multi-year bull market in real things is probably not over, but this correction is liable to be longer and deeper than previously experienced. We judged that the exponential blow-off moves were carried too far recently, and will require a more protracted retracement period in both time and price."
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Star-performer-relies-stars/story.aspx?guid={86972C29-CF1F-4527-87B8-FCF4D3FC86BC}
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Amazing how said "thinker(s)" or Mr. "Know It All(s)" can ramble on through thousands of posts with a highly-educational thesis arguing the futility of certain vendors. . .
Then when something (like the above post) attempts to refute the very basis of said argument - the "intelligent" dialogue ceases to engage!
Tells a LOT about the motive behind these deep "thinkers": Drag a vendor down - at any cost - to a level more comfortable for them. . .putting the very existence of their participation in this Forum in dire jeapardy.
They have no business or place on sites like Collective2.com. Except, of course, to aggravate vendors until only the very strong can survive - not only proving success with a system, but total insolence from extreme negativity in ALL situations. That may be a good thing for budding hedge fund participants.
Regards,
Gilbert
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Why do you constantly drone on in chat and forums? Maybe your 43% ignore rating would go down if you ever said anything meaningful
Geez, will you just shut up?
You are entitled to your opinion and try to put this back on me. Yes, I am human and do ramble at times. But I do not spend my energies vainly putting others in a bad light - like the mindless umpteen posts towards Cari or any other flavor of the day. You, my friend, basically exposed a chord within you. This is easily identified by how complete off-topic you went with your opinion.
I have “opinions” too about others as they present themselves, I just don’t go so far as to say they do not deserve to be heard. BTW the ignore rating came when another individual directed truly mindless rantings - unprovoced - toward me, just before the ignore ratings were implemented. The extreme flames provoked responses from me that I guess no one wanted to here. Needless to say, said person (whom I guess you approve, LMAO) has about double the ignore rating.
Actually, I wish more than the handful would engage in thoughtful posting. Unfortunately, the tone from above mentioned type postings have likely put all that would post off. Yes, I definitely have opinions about your reply, the lack of community here and the blatant disregard by many to not purposely offend, antagonize or otherwise post truly meaningless aggravating “flame” posts.
But be yourself. In time many may wish to truly engage in useful and encouraging community reponse. Yours, just doesn’t fall into that category. Sorry, but it is the truth.
Regards,
Gilbert
[LINKSYSTEM_30875056]
Maybe I am reading more into you and if my reply is not deserving, I apologize. QuickerRetirement.com looks to be respectable and I do well regard many persons from San Mateo
I will look at myself and you question as to why the constant drone.
Regards,
Gilbert
