# Basics to Avoid Disaster IMHO **URL:** \ **Category:** C2\ **Created:** [March 7, 2021, 7:06am UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779 "2021-03-07T07:06:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![NextLevelTrader](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/nextleveltrader/32/16002_2.png) [@NextLevelTrader](https://forums.collective2.com/u/NextLevelTrader)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2021, 4:54pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779/23 "2021-10-17T16:54:07Z")
That fund has a good average over 20 years, but is closed and just like every other fund there are flat years. Still a solid pick for those who got in. ---
**Author:** ![DwightSchrute](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/dwightschrute/32/13547_2.png) [@DwightSchrute](https://forums.collective2.com/u/DwightSchrute)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2021, 2:41am UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779/24 "2021-10-18T02:41:46Z")
Interesting graph of average hedge fund returns from the article posted a few comments before. Not that impressive on average in my opinion, especially when you compare to the SPY returns below. I think most out-performers are due to survivorship bias. Surely a few are good and skilled, but how do you know which ones will be the good ones ten years from now? I think hedge funds are overrated. ![image](https://canada1.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/uploads/collective2/original/3X/7/b/7bc0270357c7aaf8ac74717bfe154f5f60718884.jpeg) ![image](https://canada1.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/uploads/collective2/original/3X/0/1/0171a0f6e6e32cbc99678ce71cb7d9061130c7a0.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![aarjay\_singh](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/aarjay_singh/32/21957_2.png) [@aarjay\_singh](https://forums.collective2.com/u/aarjay_singh)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2021, 5:41pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779/25 "2021-10-18T17:41:37Z")
Average is really bad way to evaluate hedge funds. Like average C2 returns will be in gutter. You should only focus on top performing hedge funds. Remember winner takes all applies in finance. Not all hedge funds will get similar AUM. ---
**Author:** ![OrderFlowVector](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/orderflowvector/32/22674_2.png) [@OrderFlowVector](https://forums.collective2.com/u/OrderFlowVector)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2021, 9:04pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779/26 "2021-10-18T21:04:06Z")
The following mutual funds have 22 or more years of complete performance data. Here are their cumulative returns since Jan. 1, 1999: PRMTX, 435.03% WMICX, 423.06% FSCSX, 393.40% IALAX, 371.71% PRHSX, 358.17% MSEGX, 354.64% FSMEX, 352.31% FSRPX, 338.02% They are all available to new investors. If you started with $100,000 and divided it up equally among these tickers at the start of 1999, reinvested dividends/cap gains with no re-balancing, you would end up on 12/31/2020 with $1,386,545. Cap gains would be taxed annually at the long-term rate. That’s a 13.27% annualized return over the entire period, .74 sharpe, 1.14 sortino, surviving two extended black swan events and the Covid market plunge of -35%. (These figures from [portfoliovisualizer.com](http://portfoliovisualizer.com)). A 100% SPY investment since 1999 would give you only $454,000, and Berkshire Hathaway $496,000. Where on earth can you find documented returns even approaching that mutual fund basket? Here on C2? There’s only one system here with a strategy age \> 4000 days (approx. 17 years) and that’s extreme-os. Uyen Lee manager. He has, what, 3-4 auto-subscribers and probably that many who do the trades manually. C2 publishes his CAGR as 28.3%, but that’s completely unrealistic. If Uyen had had as many subscribers as those mutual funds over that period of time. His CAGR would be half that. Also, slippage, taxation at short term rates, subscription fees, and auto-trading fees. Soooo, C2 is supposedly the platform for master traders. Where are they? Here 1-3 years, then gone, systems blown out. No master traders or managers here, only Uyen Lee. And nobody is interested in him. I’ve been on C2 since 2005. Only Uyen has a proven edge – he’s the only one who found a wrinkle in the market to exploit. Reversion to the mean. That’s the edge. No trader has any legitimacy to talk about their prowess unless they can do what those mutual fund managers have done for 22+ years. That’s my opinion anyway, try to prove to me otherwise. Enjoying my mutual fund returns and padding my retirement fund … finally. Keep on dreamin’ all! ---
**Author:** ![TheForexSniper](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/theforexsniper/32/13320_2.png) [@TheForexSniper](https://forums.collective2.com/u/TheForexSniper)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2021, 9:42pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779/27 "2021-10-18T21:42:02Z")
> [@OrderFlowVector](#): > > The following mutual funds have 22 or more years of complete performance data. Here are their cumulative returns since Jan. 1, 1999: > > PRMTX, 435.03% What a joke. What this blatant advertising for some supposedly “high performing” mutual funds conveniently fails to mention is that the biggest drawdown of the “top” performing fund on his list(for example) exceeds 75%. And this assuming zero fee. No comment. ---
**Author:** ![NextLevelTrader](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/nextleveltrader/32/16002_2.png) [@NextLevelTrader](https://forums.collective2.com/u/NextLevelTrader)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2021, 10:25pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779/28 "2021-10-18T22:25:17Z")
The Vanguard VGHCX fund has been around since 1984 and has a 16% annual return average. I have had it almost 10 years and last years collapse it did better than SPY, QQQ, and IWM. I think half the returns come from dividends and capital gains. It’s one of my fail safe funds. I consider my QQQ Short Strangle fund on here to be a strategic edge. ---
**Author:** ![JITF](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/jitf/32/10116_2.png) [@JITF](https://forums.collective2.com/u/JITF)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2021, 10:56pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779/29 "2021-10-18T22:56:47Z")
> [@OrderFlowVector](#): > > The following mutual funds have 22 or more years of complete performance data. Here are their cumulative returns since Jan. 1, 1999: what was a chance to choose these 8 funds from potentially hundreds of them 22 years ago? how many of the other funds selected 22 years ago were closed in 2008? it is easy to say right now what one should do 22 years ago. 🙂 this is so-called survivorship bias. ---
**Author:** ![TheForexSniper](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/theforexsniper/32/13320_2.png) [@TheForexSniper](https://forums.collective2.com/u/TheForexSniper)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2021, 11:20pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779/30 "2021-10-18T23:20:55Z")
> [@JITF](#): > > what was a chance to choose these 8 funds from potentially hundreds of them 22 years ago? how many of the other funds selected 22 years ago were closed in 2008? 👍 In fact, more than 81.4% of US equity managers failed to beat the market during the last 15 years : > **[80% of US Fund Managers Underperform S&P 500 Over 5 years - GinsGlobal](https://www.ginsglobal.com/articles/80-of-us-fund-managers-underperform-sp-500-over-5-years/)** > > GinsGlobal, Sept 2020 > [@JITF](#): > > it is easy to say right now what one should do 22 years ago Most people love to predict the past. A quote from the article above : “While it sounds appealing to invest with the current star fund manager, active manager underperformance is proving incredibly costly to investors. It is simply no longer prudent as few global fund managers remain stars. Mostly they are bright comets that flame out, shortly after reaching their brightest moment.” ---
**Author:** ![InteractiveAssets](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/interactiveassets/32/13320_2.png) [@InteractiveAssets](https://forums.collective2.com/u/InteractiveAssets)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2021, 4:05am UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779/31 "2021-10-19T04:05:25Z")
JITF made the perfect point. How could you know it was going to be those 8 funds? I think most people should just buy low cost, low turnover, index funds and be done with it. Buy it and hold it until you need the money to spend. If you have a horizon of 7+ years do equities. If you have less than that look at some bonds. If someone wants to be really aggressive use some leverage but make sure it is done in such a way that you can survive a covid, 2008, dot com crash, or 1987 scenario. This is what I try to do. Emphasis on the word “try.” [Little Book of Common Sense Investing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Little_Book_of_Common_Sense_Investing) ---
**Author:** ![InteractiveAssets](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/interactiveassets/32/13320_2.png) [@InteractiveAssets](https://forums.collective2.com/u/InteractiveAssets)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2021, 4:06am UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779/32 "2021-10-19T04:06:31Z")
> Most people love to predict the past. I love that! I’m going to start using that. ---
**Author:** ![OrderFlowVector](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/orderflowvector/32/22674_2.png) [@OrderFlowVector](https://forums.collective2.com/u/OrderFlowVector)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2021, 9:34am UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779/33 "2021-10-19T09:34:30Z")
Says the guy who hides behind the cloak of a private profile … your analysis of drawdown is about as murky. 75%?? LOL Worst drawdown over the life of any of these tickers is 61% (PRMTX during the dot com era). Average worst drawdown of this collection is 55%. If you can’t stand a drawdown of that magnitude, then you shouldn’t be trading. All big drawdowns recover within 2 years. I’ll admit to a little survivorship bias here, but 25-35 year performance histories are a pretty good assurance of future returns, in my book. Now that you’ve had your little laugh at my expense, won’t you kindly share with us all your superior investment plan? ---
**Author:** ![TheForexSniper](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/theforexsniper/32/13320_2.png) [@TheForexSniper](https://forums.collective2.com/u/TheForexSniper)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2021, 6:16pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779/34 "2021-10-19T18:16:17Z")
> [@OrderFlowVector](#): > > Says the guy who hides behind the cloak of a private profile … ?!? What is there to “hide” exactly, I am not running a system on C2, or anywhere else. > [@OrderFlowVector](#): > > Worst drawdown over the life of any of these tickers is 61% (PRMTX during the dot com era). Is that a fact (as J.R. Ewing from the Dallas TV series would say) ? A quick and simple Yahoo Finance search would show that your “top performing” fund (PRMTX) went from $46.63 (on 10/1999) to $11.36, in less than 2 years, a disastrous 75.64% drawdown. (it then took 7 long years to recover from that huge loss, in other words just to break even…) > [@OrderFlowVector](#): > > Worst drawdown over the life of any of these tickers is 61% (PRMTX during the dot com era). Average worst drawdown of this collection is 55%. If you can’t stand a drawdown of that magnitude, then you shouldn’t be trading. What? Say that again. So according to you, a trading system that manages to lose more than half of your hard-earned money is a good system??? Right, so I guess systems with 100% drawdown are even better. ---
**Author:** ![TheForexSniper](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/theforexsniper/32/13320_2.png) [@TheForexSniper](https://forums.collective2.com/u/TheForexSniper)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2021, 11:29pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779/35 "2021-10-19T23:29:58Z")
> [@OrderFlowVector](#): > > - Identify the hot system de jour, audit for awhile, then jump in with both feet. > - The system begins to go south as soon as you jump in (due to “survivorship bias”, followed by “reality”) Then why don’t you trade the exact opposite signal and make a killing? Funny how traders always think that “hot” C2 systems are doomed to fail but NEVER take advantage of that “knowledge”… [Previous page](https://forums.collective2.com/t/basics-to-avoid-disaster-imho/14779.md?page=1)