Blackjack!

Dear Speculators,



I think I’ve found a system to win in online blackjack! It could just be luck but I’m $6,000 up although it has taken at least 8,000 hands to get there. (approx 30hrs play)



Is there anyone who know’s of, or could write a program so I could test my system to destruction i.e. - automatically calculate the outcome on say a million hands based on set rules to see how much it would make / lose from random cards. (like on-line)



If it does really work then I’m quitting the day job! At the moment I’m just saving for a holiday.



Jim

This is called a "perpetual motion machine." Gambling systems have been tested into oblivion. The house wins.



Like many systems hear, the vendors are convinced they have it licked…

Ross - I’m not convinced this is true. I assume that the cards are chosen using some pseudo-random algorithm. If this is the case then it might be possible to beat the house.



There was a fellow several years ago who won big at an electronic roulette machine (I believe) at a casino just by tracking the pseudo-random number sequence that was being generated. He watched the numbers generated over a 24 hour period then started placing bets and won three times in a row before they shut him down.



Steve

I believe blackjack is the one exception to the rule that the house wins. You can have a small advantage in the long run (even without reverse-engineering the pseudo-random sequence), but it is hard working, and the casino may ask you to leave if you do it.



Jim: I think you are at the wrong forum. Traders don’t see themselves as gamblers. Perhaps this guy can help you out (I don’t know him, just Googled): http://www.saliu.com/bbs/messages/274.html

This is a topic that has me totally baffled. Why is Vegas so successful? People are beating down the doors to get there and loose their money. A gambler will spend all of his energy trying to take a game like blackjack and turn a 49% win rate into a 51% win rate. When I develop stock trading systems I look very hard at the winning percent of trades and the amount of winning trade size compared to the amount of loosing trade size. Right now I am running my signal Wave Rider, It wins 67% of the time and the average win is higher (not by much) than the average looser. I fly to Vegas sometimes and by the looks of that airport there are millions of people going there monthly. Yet Wave Rider doesn’t even get subscribers? If Vegas offered the type of opportunity to make money I am they would run out of money very fast. Indeed all of their expenses paid (electric bill for one) and all of their profits are made on games they have around a 1% or better chance of winning. I will never understand the mentality.





…John Scarne was the first to calculate the house advantage at blackjack: 5.9%. The only advantage the dealer (casino) has is provided by the simultaneous busts. The dealer busts 28% of the time (odds: 1 in 3.57). If the player mimics the dealer (draw to 16 or less, stand on 17 or higher), the player will bust 28% of the time. The odds (probability) for the dealer and the player to bust at the same time: .28 x .28 = 7.84%. But the player is paid 3 to 2 for a natural (blackjack), whereas the dealer is paid still 1 to 1 for a blackjack. Therefore, the house edge will go down to around 5.9%.



The player can learn and play the basic strategy. Thus, the player will reduce the number of busts. The bust probability for the basic strategy player is reduced to 17% (odds: 1 in 5.88). Therefore, the basic strategy player faces a disadvantage of .17 x .28 = 4.76%. But because the player gets paid 3 to 2 for a natural, and because the player can double down or split pairs, the house edge goes all the way down to 1%.

There are several bonehead plays, however. Such foolish plays can increase the house advantage at blackjack to 10%-15%. Example of such a play: hitting a hand of 19 or 20! Some look intrigued at me, but I split a pair of 10-cards. I only do that when there is a high probability I am in a clump of high cards and the dealer face card is 4, or 5, or 6.



Gambling Mathematics, Theory Of Probability Applied To Black Jack.



The house edge can be diminished to only around 1% if the player follows certain rules. The set of rules known as basic strategy make blackjack one of the fairest games of any kind, almost as fair as coin tossing. I strongly recommend that you do not attempt to play blackjack before you learn basic strategy.



An IBM computer scientist, Edward O. Thorp, published “Beat the Dealer” in 1962. The book introduced a winning method known as card counting (also counting cards). The method considered the ten-valued cards and the Aces as “positive”, and the cards 2 to 6 as “negative”. If the net result in the remaining deck was positive, the player must increase the bet accordingly. The method had visible results when only one deck was used and very few cards remained in the deck. The casinos modified the rules dramatically. The “penetration” was introduced: not all the cards in the deck are played. Shuffling is done unexpectedly. Also, most casinos introduced the multiple deck blackjack. Card counting is now very similar to cult believing

Sounds like you know a lot more about it than I do, so I better back off. Only I don’t understand how Thorp could have a winning method if the advantage is always on the house. Of course, whenever a winning method exists the casino’s will change the rules such that you can’t use it anymore.

Does Wave Runner have tinkling sounds and scantily dressed women??? How about free drinks and all you can eat buffee???

Its Wave Rider. And as for your question. You bet ya! And I will tell you if you make 70+% yearly with your money you to could have all of the scantly clad ladies you want. As for the booze just drink up. The more drunks there are running around here the smarter I feel.

"How about free drinks and all you can eat buffee???"



You know her, too? Damn… I didn’t realize buffee was still doing outcall into the Vegas hotel rooms.