# Diversification Email at C2? **URL:** \ **Category:** C2\ **Created:** [July 14, 2023, 4:20pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206 "2023-07-14T16:20:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![ExtremeTrading](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/extremetrading/32/18645_2.png) [@ExtremeTrading](https://forums.collective2.com/u/ExtremeTrading)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2023, 6:27pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/22 "2023-07-30T18:27:01Z")
Absolutely, we are not even counting Old Timer systems that blew up spectacularly a long time ago but are no longer listed on the grid. ---
**Author:** ![InteractiveAssets](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/interactiveassets/32/13320_2.png) [@InteractiveAssets](https://forums.collective2.com/u/InteractiveAssets)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2023, 6:50pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/23 "2023-07-30T18:50:50Z")
31.7% average \> 3.9% average. Old timers are like the planes that made it back. Beat up but back. ![image](https://canada1.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/uploads/collective2/original/3X/7/3/738664e812455a31888b4e19c821a965f3c378e1.png) ---
**Author:** ![ExtremeTrading](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/extremetrading/32/18645_2.png) [@ExtremeTrading](https://forums.collective2.com/u/ExtremeTrading)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2023, 6:52pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/24 "2023-07-30T18:52:59Z")
> [@InteractiveAssets](#): > > 31.7% average \> 3.9% average What is that 3.9% please? ---
**Author:** ![InteractiveAssets](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/interactiveassets/32/13320_2.png) [@InteractiveAssets](https://forums.collective2.com/u/InteractiveAssets)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2023, 6:54pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/25 "2023-07-30T18:54:29Z")
reference to earlier post in this thread: [Diversification Email at C2? - #4 by InteractiveAssets](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/4) ---
**Author:** ![ExtremeTrading](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/extremetrading/32/18645_2.png) [@ExtremeTrading](https://forums.collective2.com/u/ExtremeTrading)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2023, 6:56pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/26 "2023-07-30T18:56:54Z")
Well if you give popular systems enough time they could also produce that kind of return, I guess, in the long run. > [@InteractiveAssets](#): > > Old timers are like the planes that made it back. Beat up but back. But how many Old Timers never came back…? ---
**Author:** ![ExtremeTrading](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/extremetrading/32/18645_2.png) [@ExtremeTrading](https://forums.collective2.com/u/ExtremeTrading)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2023, 7:30pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/27 "2023-07-30T19:30:57Z")
[InteractiveAssets](https://forums.collective2.com/u/InteractiveAssets), I see that you love statistics and numbers, so here is an interesting study for you : the average return of TOS (Trade Own System) strategies. I think the results would surprise you… ---
**Author:** ![InteractiveAssets](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/interactiveassets/32/13320_2.png) [@InteractiveAssets](https://forums.collective2.com/u/InteractiveAssets)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2023, 7:31pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/28 "2023-07-30T19:31:36Z")
Do you have the results? ---
**Author:** ![InteractiveAssets](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/interactiveassets/32/13320_2.png) [@InteractiveAssets](https://forums.collective2.com/u/InteractiveAssets)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2023, 7:34pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/29 "2023-07-30T19:34:15Z")
These are the only results that I have for TOS. ![IMG_5923](https://canada1.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/uploads/collective2/original/3X/2/4/2487c959b12a26903cc37bce5d78821fd7aec5ea.jpeg) FYI the 15 stands for the top fifteen strategies from each leaderboard in the forward test. ---
**Author:** ![ExtremeTrading](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/extremetrading/32/18645_2.png) [@ExtremeTrading](https://forums.collective2.com/u/ExtremeTrading)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2023, 7:38pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/30 "2023-07-30T19:38:20Z")
> [@InteractiveAssets](#): > > Do you have the results? Yes, this TOS study was performed a while ago by an old C2 user (he had his own trading blog), and the results truly surprised me. But see for yourself if you know how to download the data from the grid (I couldn’t find a way to do this). ---
**Author:** ![ExtremeTrading](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/extremetrading/32/18645_2.png) [@ExtremeTrading](https://forums.collective2.com/u/ExtremeTrading)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2023, 7:43pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/31 "2023-07-30T19:43:28Z")
> [@InteractiveAssets](#): > > FYI the 15 stands for the top fifteen strategies from each leaderboard in the forward test. Top 15 TOS systems only? No that wouldn’t work, we want to know the average return of every TOS system listed on the grid… A top 15 listing of anything will always give a superior value and not the real value of the average return, by definition. It’s like trying to find the average return of the stock market by using the top gainers of the day only. ---
**Author:** ![InteractiveAssets](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/interactiveassets/32/13320_2.png) [@InteractiveAssets](https://forums.collective2.com/u/InteractiveAssets)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2023, 8:05pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/32 "2023-07-30T20:05:46Z")
I would love it if you calculated the average of every single one. That would be wonderful. FYI Dwight is my other profile. The manner in which I measured the data is a bit tedious. I can update it but I’m not going to be able to update every single one of the 1,000. This is why I did 15 for the forward test and then would rebalance every quarter or so. So the results are as if a person did an equal weight portfolio of 15 strategies by leaderboard type and rebalanced each quarter or so into the current 15 top. I fell off the wagon because it was tedious. I can update with another rebalance but it won’t have 1000 strategies it will have 15 per board. If the data doesn’t meet your criteria and you don’t have other data to provide then I don’t have much else to say on the topic other than I hope you find a way to provide results for all the strategies etc. ---
**Author:** ![ExtremeTrading](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/extremetrading/32/18645_2.png) [@ExtremeTrading](https://forums.collective2.com/u/ExtremeTrading)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2023, 8:11pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/33 "2023-07-30T20:11:00Z")
> [@InteractiveAssets](#): > > I would love it if you calculated the average of every single one. Alright, I guess I will have to do it manually then, a very tedious task as you can imagine. I will post the results when I am done. > [@InteractiveAssets](#): > > So the results are as if a person did an equal weight portfolio of 15 strategies by leaderboard type and rebalanced each quarter or so into the current 15 top. Oh I see what you mean now. ---
**Author:** ![InteractiveAssets](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/interactiveassets/32/13320_2.png) [@InteractiveAssets](https://forums.collective2.com/u/InteractiveAssets)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2023, 3:35am UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/34 "2023-07-31T03:35:31Z")
Here are updated results. Its all over the place. SPY and IRA board seem to have the highest overall return so far in this method. ![image](https://canada1.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/uploads/collective2/original/3X/1/4/147cb4490f76760d9a5d7870c6bcfb6162cf5917.png) > [@Discussion for: Leader Board Performance vs. Market](https://forums.collective2.com/t/discussion-for-leader-board-performance-vs-market/14150/52): > > I updated the forward test. Sometimes it is difficult to decide exactly what to include because some strategies shut down with open positions. Or they may have a really smooth curve experience massive drop subscribers seem to quite, then they take a big bet and recover. However, subscribers tend to not come back then the strategies close. Items like this and others make it difficult to fully grasp the significance of the results without looking pretty deep at each strategy included. This difficu… ---
**Author:** ![ExtremeTrading](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/extremetrading/32/18645_2.png) [@ExtremeTrading](https://forums.collective2.com/u/ExtremeTrading)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2023, 8:55pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/35 "2023-08-01T20:55:50Z")
So according to your study the return of the SPY is almost 9 times greater than the top 15 “Old Timers”, from 9/12/2020 to 7/30/2023? | Old-Timers 15 | 10.0% | 19.75% | -12.25% | 16% | 5% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SPY with DRIP | 7.2% | 26.93% | 12.73% | 53% | 43% | ---
**Author:** ![QuantTiger](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/quanttiger/32/21441_2.png) [@QuantTiger](https://forums.collective2.com/u/QuantTiger)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2023, 9:21pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/36 "2023-08-01T21:21:27Z")
It appears so. One thing, I think the method is to rebalance into top 15 every quarter. Basically “chase the top systems”. So, conclusion isn’t that top 15 doesn’t work over 3+ years where the top 15 is static, it’s that chasing the top systems doesn’t work (which intuitively can make sense). My guess is if you picked top 15 from start of this test from old timers list, and somehow handled systems that busted or stopped, you’d do better. ---
**Author:** ![ExtremeTrading](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/extremetrading/32/18645_2.png) [@ExtremeTrading](https://forums.collective2.com/u/ExtremeTrading)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2023, 9:36pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/37 "2023-08-01T21:36:27Z")
> [@QuantTiger](#): > > So, conclusion isn’t that top 15 doesn’t work over 3+ years Well they obviously didn’t work, because a simple index fund like the SPY was able to beat them 9 times over. > [@QuantTiger](#): > > that chasing the top systems doesn’t work That’s true for the C2 “Old Timers”, at least for his 3-year test, but it is still unclear if this idea is true in general, as far as trading systems are concerned, even though I have read somewhere that top performing funds tend to underperform the next few years. ---
**Author:** ![QuantTiger](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/quanttiger/32/21441_2.png) [@QuantTiger](https://forums.collective2.com/u/QuantTiger)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2023, 9:38pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/38 "2023-08-01T21:38:53Z")
[quote=“ExtremeTrading, post:37, topic:16206, full:true”] > [@QuantTiger](#): > > So, conclusion isn’t that top 15 doesn’t work over 3+ years > [@](#): > > Well they obviously didn’t work, because a simple index fund like the SPY was able to beat them 9 times over. I need to clarify, when i said “conclusion isnt’ that top 15 doesn’t work over 3+ years” I mean picking top 15, then holding for 3+ years. Because no data was presented for that. ---
**Author:** ![InteractiveAssets](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/interactiveassets/32/13320_2.png) [@InteractiveAssets](https://forums.collective2.com/u/InteractiveAssets)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2023, 9:41pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/39 "2023-08-01T21:41:51Z")
It’s definitely possible I made an error etc. but yes. The only category that beat SPY with drip was the IRA category. So as of now I would say I was certainly wrong to hold the old-timers in higher esteem. Also, this is all before taxes. If someone followed the IRA board outside an IRA they likely would have still underperformed SPY after taxes. @QuantTiger as you pointed out it may have better results to just buy and hold. I have the data needed to compare. If I were to have just taken the original 15 old timers and did zero rebalancing the results would have been about 7.4% for the old timer leaderboard. | Board Category | | Start Date | End Date | Start | End | | Details | Performance | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Old Timers | 1 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $145,600 | $177,630 | 22.00% | [https://collective2.com/details/102427283](https://collective2.com/details/102427283) | [https://collective2.com/performance/102427283](https://collective2.com/performance/102427283) | | Old Timers | 2 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $80,000 | $75,000 | -6.25% | [https://collective2.com/details/106901765](https://collective2.com/details/106901765) | [https://collective2.com/performance/106901765](https://collective2.com/performance/106901765) | | Old Timers | 3 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $100,000 | $90,000 | -10.00% | [https://collective2.com/details/106600099](https://collective2.com/details/106600099) | [https://collective2.com/performance/106600099](https://collective2.com/performance/106600099) | | Old Timers | 4 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $22,267 | $14,065 | -36.83% | [https://collective2.com/details/106004078](https://collective2.com/details/106004078) | [https://collective2.com/performance/106004078](https://collective2.com/performance/106004078) | | Old Timers | 5 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $80,659 | $37,840 | -53.09% | [https://collective2.com/details/106804598](https://collective2.com/details/106804598) | [https://collective2.com/performance/106804598](https://collective2.com/performance/106804598) | | Old Timers | 6 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $21,634 | $40,823 | 88.70% | [https://collective2.com/details/111648302](https://collective2.com/details/111648302) | [https://collective2.com/performance/111648302](https://collective2.com/performance/111648302) | | Old Timers | 7 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $64,199 | $61,735 | -3.84% | [https://collective2.com/details/106187009](https://collective2.com/details/106187009) | [https://collective2.com/performance/106187009](https://collective2.com/performance/106187009) | | Old Timers | 8 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $38,145 | $52,254 | 36.99% | [https://collective2.com/details/107529017](https://collective2.com/details/107529017) | [https://collective2.com/performance/107529017](https://collective2.com/performance/107529017) | | Old Timers | 9 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $399,565 | $153,771 | -61.52% | [https://collective2.com/details/100707640](https://collective2.com/details/100707640) | [https://collective2.com/performance/100707640](https://collective2.com/performance/100707640) | | Old Timers | 10 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $63,918 | $70,542 | 10.36% | [https://collective2.com/details/77331265](https://collective2.com/details/77331265) | [https://collective2.com/performance/77331265](https://collective2.com/performance/77331265) | | Old Timers | 11 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $30,000 | $30,000 | 0.00% | [https://collective2.com/details/77330504](https://collective2.com/details/77330504) | [https://collective2.com/performance/77330504](https://collective2.com/performance/77330504) | | Old Timers | 12 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $496,000 | $797,000 | 60.69% | [https://collective2.com/details/75800796](https://collective2.com/details/75800796) | [https://collective2.com/performance/75800796](https://collective2.com/performance/75800796) | | Old Timers | 13 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $300,000 | $300,000 | 0.00% | [https://collective2.com/details/77477692](https://collective2.com/details/77477692) | [https://collective2.com/performance/77477692](https://collective2.com/performance/77477692) | | Old Timers | 14 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $238,000 | $325,000 | 36.55% | [https://collective2.com/details/94025749](https://collective2.com/details/94025749) | [https://collective2.com/performance/94025749](https://collective2.com/performance/94025749) | | Old Timers | 15 | 6/16/2020 | 7/31/2023 | $29,655 | $37,672 | 27.03% | [https://collective2.com/details/104952602](https://collective2.com/details/104952602) | [https://collective2.com/performance/104952602](https://collective2.com/performance/104952602) | | Average | | | | | | 7.39% | | | ---
**Author:** ![QuantTiger](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/quanttiger/32/21441_2.png) [@QuantTiger](https://forums.collective2.com/u/QuantTiger)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2023, 9:41pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/40 "2023-08-01T21:41:55Z")
yeah in general the idea should be explored, maybe rebalance periods can be tuned, number of systems, etc… Or something like “dogs of the dow” where the lowest of the top 30 systems or something is picked, etc. ---
**Author:** ![ExtremeTrading](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex028/user_avatar/forums.collective2.com/extremetrading/32/18645_2.png) [@ExtremeTrading](https://forums.collective2.com/u/ExtremeTrading)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2023, 9:49pm UTC](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206/41 "2023-08-01T21:49:47Z")
> [@InteractiveAssets](#): > > If I were to have just taken the original 15 old timers and did zero rebalancing the results would have been about 7.4% for the old timer leaderboard. So again the Old timers did worse than a simple index fund like SPY, during the 3-year test, In fact, fading the 15 top Old timers (on a rebalancing basis) could create great returns, or so it seems… [Previous page](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206.md?page=1) [Next page](https://forums.collective2.com/t/diversification-email-at-c2/16206.md?page=3)