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I want to devote part of my portfolio to high growth strategies. I have narrowed down my choices to the following two for Autotrading:
eFutures +700% return YTD
https://collective2.com/details/123192436
Elliottwave System + 800% return YTD
https://collective2.com/details/122467638
I will probably invest 15K USD in one of these.
What are your thoughts in terms of risk and can they be effectively scaled down.
Here are screen shots
Thanks in advance!
I like the equity chart on the 1st (looks realistic. wins & lossesâŚ) but the 75% DD would SCARE me away. The equity graph of the 2nd is ??? to me. Looks like all or nothing but others can chime in if Elliot Wave systems normally look like that. Just going by the numbers the 2nd looks safer if the system is âblowoutâ proof. I actually like that it lost 11.5% in April and it only created the smallest dip in the equity graph (you should dive deeper to see how!?). Quick Glance looks like #2.
Thanks BonusCash for the insight. I too am leaning to the Eliottewave strategy.
I too was worried about the draw down in efutures. It happened the first month of trading , but it doesnât clearly appear in the trading data. The drawdown happened in April 29 to April 30 but as you can see it doesnât show. April ROI is 30.6% . The strategy started trading with 2879 USD April 4.
Here is what the platform says : The largest peak-to-valley historical drawdown of the Model Account was 75.1% and occurred between 2019-04-29 and 2019-04-30. In terms of dollars, the largest peak-to-valley drawdown of the Model Account was $2,157.
However the trading data only show a loss of 110 USD on April 29.
So I am wondering if Drawdown can be a misleading indicator or in this case it is just a mistake
Thats worth a quick msg to tech support. How can the graph show one thing and the trading record something different!? You really need the answer to that. If it was early and never happened again it could be a change in strategy so it WONT happen again or it could be a sign of things to come. Iâd ask the dev about it too. 75% DD requires EXTREME caution and investigationâŚ
Be careful @HanyAly, efutures rescaled his strategy contract sizes. (There is no way you can trade .15 contracts of the emini ES. And no he is not using micro futures.
The drawdowns were based on the previous scaling which probably was pretty extreme. The strategy looks like an average down or martingale type strategy since the contract sizes changes.
The general rule most seasoned investors use is that wait for 6+ months of track records before considering to invest since alot of strategies fail before that period.
BtwâŚefutures hasnât made a trade in 13 days nowâŚbeware of strategies that suck subs in only to not trade anymore. All they want to do is collect sub fees. Especially one that charges $450 per monthâŚlol
Hi Hany - When we analyze âMax peak-to-valley drawdownâ we âmark to marketâ the entire portfolio and analyze how it performs while the positions are open. If you think about it, itâs quite possible that individual trades do not reveal the portfolio drawdown within the individual trade lines that C2 shows in the trade-by-trade data.
Here is a simple example to demonstrate:
Imagine you buy 1,000 shares of XYZ stock on Monday for $100 per share. On Tuesday, the CFO resigns, and the stock plummets to $50 per share. But then the CEO reassures investors that all is well, and the stock recovers back to $99. Now, on Tuesday at the end of the trading day you sell the stock @ $99.
So, on C2âs trade data, you would see a âlossâ of only $1 per share ($1,000) on Tuesday.
But the peak-to-valley max drawdown would say the maximum loss occurred on the same Tuesday: $50,000!
Thereâs no discrepancy or error here. The two numbers are describing different things.
Thanks Mathew, Clear!
@HanyAly, hope you listened to the warnings of these 2 systems. Both of these systems have now started to look shaky.
Most systems need at least 6 months of proven trades before you should start considering them to invest with.
Good luck in your search.
Looks like the wave CRASHED!? I dont know enough about Elliot Wave to know if thats possible inside that system or was he outside the rules? eFutures took a hit but if youâre still up if you were in it about 2 months. The loss is also in line with eFutures monthly profit so they might be able to recover pretty quickly.
I didnât invest in Eliottewave. Looked to be good to be true. The biggest hit actually I got was in PvX Forex.
I donât believe in elliot wave since its just a curve fitted trading system. Iâve met so many elliot wave theorists and all they can come up with is âif then else thenâŚâ predictions which just about anyone can predict.
ie. If the market goes up past one 7000 else it will turn down
Elliot wave theory adjusts its waves according to the current moves and that does not necessarily predict with any good accuracy where and which direction the next move will take us or for that matter where will the turning point occur.
Regarding eFutures, the system averages down so be careful that one day it wonât blow up. Its a common occurrence for averaging down systems as they look good for months and then when they picked a big move day against their trade they will lose alot. The trade leader already rescaled so that is an indicaton that the strategy was over leveraged to begin with. A 58% drawdown is a pretty bad drawdown!
It doesnât matter. These systems has every warning there is. The leverage and risk management. If you are going to trade futures make sure you have tight stop or not leveraging 10:1.
Both of the strategy is down 30% in 3 days. Of course developer end up re-scale to look better and buy more each down day.
Thanks Osutai! Valuable advice!
Those poor subs that subscribed to eFutures are down thousands and on top of that paid $450 per month to lose their money! 
On the OTHER Hand⌠- Today was a Good Day. Should get more of the same and/or similar moving forward with the normal market humbling bumps here and there. Still lettinâ it cook in the C2 oven for a couple months. Dont know how theses other guys can stomach such Big Losses. I get SICK looking at Negative trades lurking in my journal. Harder to trade for topside equity but MUCH better Peace of MindâŚ
