This thread is for the strategy called Surfing on 300K managed by SurferDude. I highly recommend reading any posts here if you are looking for more information.
- The use of leverage is 1-3 times, but I use no margin or shorting. Much of the out-performance (assuming there is out performance with the hypothetical account) is dependent upon leverage.
- Patience with longer trades is required.
- A mix of uncorrelated, inverse, and correlated markets (Stocks, Bonds, Crypto, and Volatility) are used.
- Diversity of short and long term indicators for each market to help scale in and out of each market.
- The most extreme bullish allocation is roughly equivalent to 47% TQQQ, 24% ZIV, 24% GBTC, and 5% cash. Another allocation that could also be considered the most bullish is 70% TQQQ, 24% ZIV, and 5% cash. It just depends on how you feel about crytpo.
- The most extreme bearish allocation is roughly equivalent to 2% UPRO, 24% TVIX, 69% TMF, 5% cash.
- Most of the time the allocation will fluctuate somewhere between the most bullish and bearish allocation.
- Very deep stops on each position for single day black swans. Indicators are what are used for exits typically. These stops would only be for a black swan that caught one or all my positions in stocks, bonds, crypto, and volatility off guard.
- I monitor the strategy constantly, but all allocations and trading are fully automated.
Should you decide to follow my hypothetical results I would consider:
- Dollar cost averaging into it for more peace of mind.
- Consider if you can stay consistent.
- Whether or not the strategy has better drawdowns than the market on a longer time horizon I guarantee that it will move up and down faster than the market on most days. This can be tough to watch for some, which is why I encourage monitoring before copying.
- On any given day all products may move down or up together.
- There are inherent risks to 3 times ETFs, crypto, volatility products, etc.
- My investment philosophy is based on a mixture of backtests and reality checks.
If I am interested in trading can you please send me more information and what would I need to fund the account with. How lone did you backtest for and how long have you been actually trading this strategy. I look forward to hearing from you.
My system uses many different subsystems (Multiple stock, bond, volatility, and crypto systems) and not all have data for the same time frames. I have tested each aspect of my strategy as far back as I can doing my best to avoid curve fitting. Some subsystems have been tested to 2015, 2010, 2007, 2004, 2000, 1993, 1986, and 1953. In all of these I took care to incorporate slippage, fees, avoid curve fitting, and most of all use rationality tests.
Since I don’t trade options or futures scaling down or up should be easy if you wish. So someone could follow with a small amount of money. However, you would certainly want to make sure that the fees for subing and autotrading aren’t so high that they will eat up all profits. If someone wishes to subscribe but finds that the sub and auto trade fees will eat up all their profits because the money they have to copy with is too small, they should feel free to contact me with what price would work for them. I will evaluate if I can meet that price for them.
Only a few of the subsystem have been traded live for any length of time and that has only been since 2017. However, I am currently autotrading my own strategy using multiple brokerage accounts (only one is used for TOS).
I previously traded with the mindset of finding the best signal and the best instrument to trade. Then go long or short. At times this can be the fastest way to make a lot of money, but it is easy to lose too. Even if you never lose it is just stressful for me going 100% in on any ETF. it took me a long time, but I eventually found a much better method for my personality.
I consider many indicators, time frames, ETFs, and multiple markets. Then I adjust my allocation across the board as needed to put the odds in my favor for today, this week, or this month. This allows me to effectively hedge my bets and sleep great every night!
I would Like to trade the system, what have been some of the short term and long term returns. I am interested in trading, thanks Chasr
Our words reveal our thoughts
Our manners mirror our self esteem
Our actions reflect our character
Our habits predict our future
Have a GREAT DAY… Chase
@ChaseFulcher I hope this helps you find what you are looking for, but these are hypothetical not live trade results.
Assuming a yearly drag of 6.74% fees for sub fees and autotrade fees, my backtests indicate the following hypothetical results (IB commission are assumed):
Dec 2007-January 2019 using no crypto trading: 36% CAGR and -37% max drawdown.
Feb 2015 - Feb 2019 using no crypto trading: 30% CAGR and -21.4% max drawdown.
Feb 2015 -Feb 2019 including crypto aspect: 54% CAGR and -19% max drawdown.
You can obisously see it has been rather flat over the recent 1.5 years. In my opinion that is primarily because of the choppiness of the market and the crypto bear market. I do not believe this is because the edge is gone. This system just will perform better in a trending market. Older backtests seem to agree with me. As you can see prior to the crash in 2008 the strategy did not do fantastic but did very well when the bearish trend became more clear.
As you can see below the market over the last 1.5 years has been rather indecisive. Once it becomes more clear in some of the markets I believe I may see a similar result as 2007-2009
Here is one backtests with the most complete picture I have available from 2007 to 2019. It allows crypto trades but doesn’t start taking any until GBTC is created.
As I have mentioned not all aspects of my strategy can be backtested over all periods. One aspect of my strategy picks whether or not to hold bonds or stocks. About 12% of the total portfolio gets allocated to this aspect. That aspect of the strategy alone can be backtested to 1986 as seen here:
Another aspect that can trade stocks only accounts for about 10% of the total portfolio and can be backtested to 1950
I hope that these help people identify if this strategy could fit with them. For me it is the perfect fit, and I use this overall strategy for the vast majority of my own capital.
Thanks so very much. I subscribed to your system at 200 percent. I believe in you and your system. Did you have any coupons for new subscribers. I look forward to a longterm relationship. I’m impressed with your hardwork on this system
Thank you very much. I am honored to have you following and will do my best to make it as smooth and profitable a ride as possible for both of us. Of course, there will be good and bad times with any strategy, but I really hope you have subscribed at the beginning of one the best. Let me know if you need anything else.
Below is a broadcast to subscribers that I think may be beneficial as a documented reality check for anyone considering subscribing. In short the system has done about 6 times better over the last three weeks than the average three weeks in my most positive backtest posted above. So it won’t always be this easy or great to follow.
Welcome all seven subscribers! I really appreciate you checking out the system. Just in case anyone hasn’t, I recommend reading through my posts in the forum thread My Best Multi Asset Strategy. If you read through that you will surely notice that the 16% growth in the account over the last three weeks with virtually no drawdown is by no means an average three weeks. My very best backtest of hypothetical results over any period had a CAGR of 54% with a drawdown of -19%. Keeping in mind that was the very best backtest, we can see that an average week in that backtest would have had a return of only 2.5%! I don’t say this to say that the next week or three weeks will be a good set or a bad set. I don’t know what the market will throw at us. All I am saying is that this has been a tremendous 3 weeks, but I am well aware that the vast majority of the time it won’t be as easy to remain invested. These are the things you should consider before attaching real money.
On a brighter note, all systems on my end are running very well. As you can see the vast majority of the gains have been from the meteoric rise of GBTC over the last few weeks. However, we have had some good allocations to TMF, UPRO, and ZIV that have come at strategic times and done very well by my expected standards but have been dwarfed by the fantastic rise in GBTC. At some point GBTC will have some big down days and my system will likely ride many of them down until the signals show that the trend has truly reversed, in the same way I missed some significant up days before entering GBTC and had confirmation that the trend was turning up. However, hopefully one of the other markets such as bonds, stocks, or gold will be able to soften the blow of any down days in GBTC. that is the main point of why I trade multiple assets at the same time. It makes the good and bad times more moderate. If I had been 100% in GBTC over the last 3 weeks my returns would have been much better, but I would be much more exposed to all sorts of risk and personal stress.
This system is based on acknowledging the fact that perfection is impossible and it is best to have the money, time, and diversification needed to allow me to ignore the daily noise trust the system I have made that focuses on the overall allocations and the trends. This helps me ride the larger waves and not get distracted by relatively insignificant up and down day, weeks, months, and even years.
One question I have already had multiple times is "Should I join all trades in progress or wait until you close out a position completely?"
I Trade with my Best Knowledge and Strategies Already
To me it seems that if I knew it wasn’t a good time for you to join a trade then I would know it was a good time for me to get out. For this reason alone when I add more money of my own I am just joining all trades in progress. If I am worried about a drop then I just add less money and dollar cost average in. I just make sure I only invest money I can stand to see have a temporary drop.
You Could be Waiting Years On Some Trades
Many of my positions will adjust up and down between as low as 1% and as high as 70% of the total portfolio allocation for months or even years before being fully closed out.
Some of My Positions will Never Close
In my algorithm, which is always subject to change by my discretion, there are some positions that never go to zero shares because my backtests have shown it to be best that way.
Sometimes I May Hold 1 Share
I may hold just one share of some assets at all times because I like the easier profit loss reporting it makes available to me. Another big plus is that it appears to limit the ability of non-subscribers to see the delayed trades I make without paying.
For those asking why I have my TOS badge only at 67% I have a simple answer. That is all the money I have in that account.
However, I have multiple of my own accounts tied to the strategy. I do this primarily for convenience for myself rather than having to enter orders for each one manually. I can control the algorithm through one avenue which is better for me. As you can see from the picture the amount of money I currently have making the same trades is about 2 times the model strategy.
Though there is no way to prove it, this equates to about 65% of my net worth and about 95% of my liquid net worth. This is by no means saying other people should copy with such a high percentage of their net worth. This also doesn’t mean that it is going to go well. Plenty of dimwits have had large amounts of their net worth in terrible investments. All it means is that I am putting my money where my mouth is. This also explains some of the reason I am on C2. I do not yet have enough capital to really live the way I want to live just from my earnings.
So please take all this in context and understand there are significant risks to copying my trading and that safety is not a guarantee. You could lose some or all of your investment. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. You should read, understand, and consider the Risk Disclosure Statement that is provided by your broker before you consider trading. Most people who trade lose money. All I want to say is that I am willing to bet big on my own strategy - or maybe I should say big for me.
PS I am not showing the balance of all accounts at IB option because I manage some accounts for friends and family that are not my own.