Myth Buster

What system does Myth Buster trade?

Welcome Charles - I’ve never seen you around. I tell you some warning signs I look for:



Avoid vendors with the following:



A. Vendors who act with little of no ethics. Read their posts, ask them questions, and you’ll see the honest people versus the frauds.



B. Vendors who give themselves grand titles like “chief trader” or “guru.” They are usually neither.



C. Vendors who use an alias, or have multiple accounts.



D. Vendors who imply that commissions, subscription costs and slippage aren’t a big deal. They usually are.



E. Vendors who clearly aren’t traders. One person claimed that you should deduct $300 per trade for commission and slippage. Clearly this person is not a current trader.



F. Vendors with 10+ systems, most of which have failed. They are trying again and again to get lucky.



G. Vendor who shows a lack of general trading knowledge. One who focuses on profits - ignoring drawdowns, or winning percentage. Pros know the numbers to look at and profits and win percent are not them.





Avoid systems with the following:



A. Systems less than 6 months old, unless by an established reputable vendor. A less than 6 month track record can mean luck or skill. Usually it is luck.



B. Systems that add on to losing positions. These systems are doomed.



C. Systems that have any of the following terms in their title or description:



finally revealed

predict

secrets

sacred

hidden

advanced mathematics

cracked the code

ancient

guaranteed

holy grail



Why? The systems usually are none of these things. Think about it: do Buffett or Soros claim they made their money due to any of these things? No, because it is just MARKETING HYPE!



D. System names that show the vendor is an amateur. Plenty of examples here. “Guaranteed to Make 1 Million” is just one.



E. Systems with random trading or random position sizing. Usually this is a sign of guessing. If you can’t figure it out, how will you trade it?



F. Systems where the vendor refuses to answer questions about strategy - usually due to point C above or general arrogance.



G. Severe drawdowns. Can be short and sharp or slow and deep. Either way, it is a warning that money mgmt is wrong or general system trading idea is flawed.



H. Rapid increases in equity. Either luck or lack of money management. If it can go up quickly, it can go down just as quickly if the next pick is wrong.



Use these tips to filter C2 systems, and you’ll be left with a small number of systems. Then, look at the numbers.

great points myth buster

Myth Buster,

You avoided the question. What system do you trade?

Ron -



Ask yourself “what is the turth in ‘Turth Seeker’?” I’m not really sure, other than you come up with aliases faster than I can count. And faster than you can correctly spell.



I do not currently subscribe to any systems on C2. I trade various systems from other sources.



The name is Ted. When will you start using your real name? You have in your other posts here. Are you afraid that you will be seen as someone who has developed several systems on C2 and the majority have failed?

OK, “Ted.”



When will you start using your real name? Never



You have in your other posts here. No I haven’t. You can easily check.



Are you afraid that you will be seen as someone who has developed several systems on C2 and the majority have failed? No, I use an alias due to employer restrictions. If you know anything about hedge funds, you’ll understand.



Let’s get back to my warning criteria. Do you care to discuss it? Or Do you want to talk about me - interesting to absolutely no one here?

Tell them the truth! You don’t trade the system here because you are a vendor here.



Take the flip side of your warning criteria.



What systems meet your criteria as “worthy”?

Being a vendor and trading a (few) system(s) on C2 are not mutually exclusive. In fact, surely it is a desirable thing to see that a vendor is trading at least their own system… or have a good reason why they don’t?

My criteria was developed over the last year or 2. It is the first filter I use. I am not about to spoon feed you its results. If you like the criteria use it. If not ignore it. I donut care.



Once I reduce the field by the first filter I then look at the performance numbers using some self made tools. I have experience in forensic accounting so I know a lot of tricks vendors use. Most tricks dont work at C2 though in the first place.



Many systems fail the first filter. But there is a competitor site of C2 where almost NO systems make it past that filter. Lot of amateur junk there.



I wish you luck finding the "turth" - whatever that is.



MB

If we are to seek the truth, we need to examine the facts.



Fact is that the average person trades with a 20K account. The average cost per side here in futures is $10-$45, depending upon slipage.



If you take nearly all systems on this site that trade futures, that meet the superficial criteria one would be hard pressed to find a systems that are winners. Unless one would ignore the numbers that are noted above.



Fortunately I have been following the advise of others here and seeking the truth for myself. Oh, the things I have seen.



Take a system like VT26. Input the 20K as a starting amount and then use the low $10 number for a cost per trade. Mr. Klein has been kind enough to give us the ability to see what would have occured by using the personalize feature.



If someone whats to seek the truth, use the personalize feature by inputing your starting amount and a reasonable number for commissions. But, do remember to add slipapge and autotrade costs to this also.



This is espically vital on systems that appear to look like the steps of a pyramid and constantly go up.



There are some wonderful systems here.

I believe slippage is already included in the performance results - especially when there are autotraders - since those are actual fill reports. But to your point - Systems that have low number for "keep after worst case slippage" should be avoided.



And I agree - Commissions - not included in the statistics - can be significant.



If newbies were to follow your easily implemented advice they would save themselves a lot of money.



Excellent post Mr. Seeker!

MB



Curious, if you don’t develop systems to list on C2 and you don’t subscribe to any of the systems on C2 why do you spend so much time here?



While you frequently make some good points and give people some good advice I was just curious what draws you to the site?



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Thanks for the compliment.



There are some good systems here, to be sure. Just none that fit within the portfolio I am trading. I am big on diversification. I have a couple of C2 systems in the “hopper” waiting to take place of some of my current ones.



This site, and others like it, are a good place to catch new talent and new systems. Some people here come up with some interesting stuff.



The main reason why I post - and not just lurk in the shadows - is that I’ve been burned many times by snake oil salesman in the trading world. Whether it is amateur signals, worthless courses, ripoff seminars or charlatans - I feel I have to try to help the newer folks here. That gets some vendors mad at me - which means I am striking a nerve. The best vendors ignore me and I ignore them.



It sounds stupid but I’m giving the kind of advice I wish I had gotten many years ago. I’ll try to help people until my ignore rating is 100%.

By the way you are off to a good start. I hope your success continues.

MB



Always good to have someone keep people honest. There is a lot of garbage out there and I am sure many members appreciate your thoughts.



Thanks for the kind words.



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