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Recession Coming? Evidence from spreads



Yeah but it can stay here a while. Look at the 80s and 90s. it was in the “warning zone” for a long time during these periods.

I do scratch my head at people buying LT bonds now, or even IT bonds. You can get 2.5%-3.0% for 1-2 year investment grade money good bonds. Why go out 5-20 years on the yield curve for an extra 50-80bps. Just stupid.


An in-law of mine has zero tolerance for drawdowns. Buys bonds, collects interest, holds them til the money comes back, repeats. I scratch my head at my in-laws (pretty much all of them), but didn’t know you did too!


Just depends on which types of bonds. If they are gonna buy 30 year treasuries yielding 3.1%, that to me makes no sense at all. So they assume there won’t be any inflation in the next 30 years (there actually might not be but that’s not the point). To me that’s risky.

Just makes more sense to buy ST IG bonds right now. Wait for HY spreads to widen/equities to cheapen, then put money to work if you can find value at that time.