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@OSUTIA
yeah I watched PlayTheDifference crash and burn. It was a unique idea but I never got an answer from him about his backtests. Did seem too simple to work. Probably saw some correlations that worked for a little while and wanted to ride it.
Lots of Martingalers on your list. Although I will say SPX Pit was interesting - his first trade looked almost too good to be true. His rest were almost certainly too good to be true.
As far as the list I was more referring to those who came on the forum to boast and brag (and predictably crashed). That will be coming in the future.
Yeah I know. You can assume āprivateā means -100% though.
Anyway, lets stop high-jacking the thread from the āAristocracy Reportā. I canāt wait to hear more about the greatest strategy ever (while it is still here for whatever short period it is).
I donāt understand how this list was created or what does it tell us about these systems?
I understand that some (but not all) started with a big bang (do we have a strategy here? subscribe to every 7 day old system and trade it for a month?), but not all. E.g. Bijagual has been around for a while and its first month wasnāt its biggest by far. [Not that I trade it.]
So what is the observation/recommendation here? If a system makes 100+% in one month (not necessarily in the first month) we should dump it?
[It will be interesting to see how Aristocracy makes 50% in June.]
A very thought provoking list (even if I donāt understand it.) Here is a new statistics: how does the TTNH changes over time, where TTNH = āTime to new highā I think this is what we want to see steady.
It was just a list that made 50% in a month. Itās meaningless. Itās just proofs that these developer come promote their strategy after a month or 2 calling them self the best strategy ever. And reality is we get these strategy spam every week. Most of them donāt survive 6 month or canāt produce result after they get their first subscriber. (Due to some c2 mechanics)
@DogZebra_Investing he might be the one that is putting up a list of strategy that came promote on forum and didnāt survive or went private within 2 yrs.
I was just pointing out to the OP itās not difficult to hit it big the first few month when u are trading fake money. If u can do well over 6-10 month then maybe I will look at it. Other wise stop telling us how great your strategy is after 30 days.
I did a quick search of top strategy on grid base on 30 days performance. Copy pasted on this post.
I donāt think there is a āmagicā grid filter or list. I mean he did well after a month, now going thru a drawdown.
I mean there is no way to know a new system or any system that is promoting in the forum is going to make it. Most of them donāt make it pass 4 month. Some did well for a yr like simplicity trading. Before everything is gone after 1 week.
I donāt know new high list means anything or anything grid filter mean anything. My advise is do your homework, donāt just subscribe to any system just did well first month or first 3 months. Know you risk and reward. If a system is up 100% in 3 months, you better be ready to lose 100% in 3 months.
Good work, man. -) This was to be expected. The profit of 50% per month is not normal and is a fraud. 50% per year is a very good result when the drawdown is not more than 10-20%, and you promise 50% per month. Itās funny and sad for those who you believe.
With all respect: this is a very good (albeit not too original) advice when trading individual securities. [The definition of āhomeworkā may vary, from macro- micro-economy news, balance sheets or chart patterns.]
Here, on C2 it doesnāt make much sense though. Systems are black box, trade leaders may or may not publish (unverified) back test results, (unverified) strategy descriptions, (unverified) track record. For that matter, unlike when buying into a hedge fund, not only we donāt know their background, we donāt even know their C2 history, however short it may be, as C2 refuses to share it with us.
A system will inevitably fail if its first month is successful? Maybe yes, maybe not. And even if it always does, this is not what we are looking for. We are looking for indication of success and not that of failure.
Can you elaborate on this? This canāt possibly be true. Do you have empirical or even theoretical, speculative proof of this? (You probably just meant to say that some systems are volatile.)
He is still in the game with 12k of equity I thinkā¦ he just needs to double down again cuz eventually the market will retrace! lolā¦
Wonder why so many new traders think this doubling down and being over leveraged works? They come to the forum touting incredible returns not knowing how the markets really work and thinking its so easy to make 50% monthly.
I am starting to believe that they in fact do not understand real risk of futures.
And that they do not really get how much of risk is to hold 3 or 6 NQ futures on 15 or 20 K $.
It is only a matter of time when they will be on wrong side of trade.
And then, they turn to eternal wisdom of dr. Martin Gale.
As a decent trader, If your avg return is 40% per yr, almost any Monte Carlo you run with Atleast a 5 yr track record you will have at least 1 or 2 drawdown of 20%. You canāt perfectly time all the highs and all the lows. If your alpha is 5x s&p most good traders will contain the beta within 2-3x of s&p.
You might able to avoid it a few month maybe a yr or 2. Over a long run you just arenāt going to avoid every flash crash or fast pullback like feb of this yr.
Iām in strategy thatās ātryingā to avg 50-70% gain per yr, in my mind Iām alrwady ready to handle a 25-35% draw at any given point within the next 12 months.
Most people want 30-50% gain per yr with 5% draw down. Thatās just la-la land or fake money trading. Or itās not sustainable over a 3+ period.
They do understand the risk of futures. With out this type of leverage how else u can do 20%+ gain a month?
Heās losing paper money. Why would he care about risk management? Worst scenario he lose $30 c2 listing fee, best scenario he gets 20-50 c2 subs. No brainer decision to take ultra high risk to show case the strategy.
@OSUTIA, you hit it right on! Its a money gameā¦lots of people think they can make money through subscription fees and really donāt care how they get it. If they treated their strategy seriously there wouldnāt be as many blowouts or braggards
There was a guy who claimed he was a wallstreet trader (who most of us probably know) and ran his luck for 3 months and then disappeared when no one fell for his sales pitches anymore. He claimed he could make 5k per month. At least he wasnāt a martingale student! lolā¦
Iām all for new traders starting out here at C2 but they need to treat it seriously and not come here just to trap people into giving away sub fees. If they have a good strategy or are learning thats fine.
