I do like this system, however there are long periods of inactivity. I notice in late 2017 a total of six trades in five months. I can not tell if this is because the system is providing no signals or if the developer is on vacation or away from the system. Any insight?
There were very few trades in this period due to the way the market was moving (extreme low volatility and uptrend with no pullback, remember vix in the 8 handle) so not good conditions for this system. During these periods the system is safely in cash, rather than trading signals that are not higher probability. The signals are monitored (its all automated) and they are traded even when on vacation!
Below are some questions that have been received recently, that may be of interest
What type of signals do you use for entering and exiting the trades?
The entry is always a market order. The system exits with limits and stops most of the time, although some exits are manual market orders.
How many contracts does the system hold?
The system trades initially with one contract. The money management rules allow 1 contract per 10k of equity, but in recent history the system rarely holds more than 3 contracts. If you look at the trade history you will get an idea of the how many contracts the system has held. It may hold more in the future, subject to the money management rules.
I see that the ‘average’ trade length is 20-something hours. Does it mean that “most” of your trades are day-trades?
This is not a day trading system. The system will hold overnight and will hold as long as the trade has a positive expectancy. Historically, 80% of targets are hit within the first 24 hours. 95% of the time the target is hit before the stop.
Can I trade this system will a smaller account?
It’s recommended you trade this to the same scale, however each individual is different and I trade the system how I do as I prefer smaller drawdowns and less risk. It’s possible to trade with a smaller account, say 15k, but you will be limited to prob 2 or 3 contracts max, which will be ok most of the time, but you may miss some trades. With a 15k account, the drawdown % will be bigger. There was a $3,000+ loss earlier in the year, so that a 20% loss, so depends on one’s risk tolerance.
Hi, I noticed you made the system private. Are you no longer going to take subscribers?
Typically systems that go private after publicizing are systems that have failed.
Ha. i was accessing the site a few hours ago on a IOS device and clicked this button, but could not scroll to see what the button was, although it changed from green to grey. I took a screenshot as was aware i had changed something, but could not see what. Thanks for pointing it out, back to normal now!
C2 Admin - FYI a potentiaL bug on ipad/iphone, not able to scroll right to access this button.
Always a bug when a new software rolls out. At least there wasn’t any serious issues.
Wouldn’t think he’d blow up. One of the better systems on here IMO. Under-levered and simple.
The strategy doesn’t shows in the grid right now.
EDIT: Sorry, it shows correctly, I was searching wrongly
It’s there (now?), you have to search for it, 40th most popular system!
I trading B48ES since March with scaling 100%, perform very well. I would like to scaling 200%. Is anyone scaling 200 or 300%? just i want to know the risk level if increase scaling
I have scaled more than 100% for a long time. Naturally, the risk (as measured by %Drawdown) increases linearly with scaling–nothing more, nothing less. The bigger risk is the same as with many, many other C2 systems: how will this system perform when the market suffers a protracted downturn? The developer assures me that shorting is possible and he has a long track record of not trading when things are not favorable. With his long track record, B48ES has gone through 4 small-ish downturns in the market and survived well.
I like the system but have not subscribed. What scares me is the avg. loss is over 1k with the average win at $292. The loss in Jan of $3400 seems so high compared to all the small wins. It took some time to make up that huge loss. So whats everyones thoughts on this. I would love to hear from the developer as well. thank you.
Hello B48ES, saw the announcement regarding increasing the initial entry to 2 contracts. Can you let us know the date when you intend to make that switch so we can be prepared? Muchisimas Gracias for your continued good work!!!
Hi. No changes imminent. I will post on here first and will give plenty on notice if any change. regards
Good day, would welcome your views on APD metrics, B48ES has an APD of 0.28, but I understand that the recommend minimum to 0.5, is the APD of 0.5 reasonable in your view and why ? Thanks PJG
Hi, APD is not something I have ever found particularity useful, as certain system types have certain characteristics that skew the figure. For example breakout or trend following systems typically have higher readings as the win amounts are typically much bigger than the losses, with a lower % of winners. Mean reversion systems (which most of these trades are) have typically lower ratios, as these systems will have high number of winners but bigger losses when they occur. A more useful tool for evaluating a systems, in my opinion, is expectancy, which I won’t go into now, but google it for more info. Also, for drawdown analysis, you can tell a lot from the equity curve and trade history (which this website transparently records for every system), it’s pretty easy to spot system that take on excessive risk. Regards
Good day, thank you for your response it was helpful, Thanks PJG
Hi, I don’t understand the current trade. Can you explain the logic as to why it wouldn’t be a short especially since the market spiked up last week? Or did the trade just get caught (trade was green for a while) and is now holding because it couldn’t sell at a certain price? Thx
hi. Like all trades, this signal had a high historic probability. Unfortunately it’s gone into drawdown again. Whilst it is painful to sit through, the reality is the P&L can recover quickly, especially in the right scalping condition. Regards