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Point well taken. Plus I realized that 100 trade samples can be misleading also. Consider the average loss. At 100 trades at a 75% winning trades number is only 25 samples of the loss average figure. 200 trades is 50 loss samples, 400 total trades is only 100 loss samples etc. To get an excellent take on the average loss and have a high quality loss average at 75% win rate you would need like 1000 trades so the sample size on an average loss would need to be 250. I have only 4 losses so far to consider the average loss. The average loss number right now is a total cartoon.
However, if people understand the stats and their limitations, I believe more data is a good thing. I am providing more data that can be processed. Investors here are sophisticated and I wonât just not provide data.
I believe this comparison spreadsheet provides an interesting look. However Strategy 1 (AI TQQQ SQQQ Swing) is ancient but only provides data on like 400 trades at about a 50% win rate. Thatâs only 200 samples on the loss average. But that strategy is years old. You would have to double its age to have 400 samples to predict its average loss. To wait 6 years before you invest is paralysis by analysis.
90% > Agreed⌠absolutely!.. probably even more than 90%
This was the last post (last October) in the other Beta Momentum thread .
I believe this was really a very good advise that should be followed!
Many investors lost lots of money, despite all the data & statistics.
I closed Beta Momentum V1 to new subscribers at the point where the returns on it equaled the returns on the S&P500. Yes people lost money, I did to as it was TOS, however they did not lose more money than they would have if they had invested in the S&P500 over the same time period. I did offer free 6 months subscriptions to all former subscribers if they wanted to subscribe to Beta Momentum V3. However, I do not recommend subscribing at this time.
So, Beta Momentum V3 is a baby with just 26 round trip trades. The theory behind this strategy is that I can watch for a setup where there is substantial momentum going on in the underlying stock price trend. I jump on that momentum wave and surf it for a profit. One round trip options contract per day. Occamâs Razor, keep things as simple as possible. When the typical contract costs $400 and I hit a $40 profit, you may think nothing much of that but it is 10%. Momentum does not last long. One of the gauges I keep daily track of is the average duration of a single round trip trade. Currently it is at 99.38 minutes. If Iâm on my game, the average duration has to be small, because, again, momentum just doesnât last. I have developed a set of tools to monitor my performance and provide me feedback. Losing is painful and of course, I want to avoid pain. The most encouraging stat is the winning trade percentage; 73.1%. This is a very good foundation to build on. Yes, yes, yes⌠only 26 round trip trades though. That means the stat is suspect. However, my gut tells me that there is something actually good there. While I am determining my actual performance and collecting more data, I am also in the process of clear headed self analysis. I have just instituted a subjective grade for my dayâs performance at selecting the correct direction that the price will go. How well did I do at guessing the correct trend.
Each day after Iâm done, I give my performance a grade A through F and log it, analyze it and learn from it. Here are the grades for each of my days so far:
My first week or so was very good. The week before this last one, I sucked. 3 loser picks out of 5 days. I believe there is room to improve. Currently my average grade is 2.4167. Between B and C. The closer the number to 1, the better the grade and the better job I am doing. Of course again, only 26 samples. Too few. But, another valuable tool for me to refine my skills.
So, again early in the game. More stats take them for what they are worth. 26 trades over 24 days. Two days I made 2 round trip trades; the 22 days I made just one round trip trade. Only planning to do one round trip trade per day in the future. KISS, keep it simple stupid. Or, if you will Occamâs Razor. Here is the breakdown of my grades.
A - 12/24 or 50%
B - 03/24 or 8.333%
C - 04/24 or 16.667%
D - 01/24 or 4.167%
E - 04/24 or 16.667%
F - 01/24 or 4.167%
I would argue that so far I am getting the trend right 58.333% of the time (A or B). Getting lucky 20.833% of the time (C or D). And dead wrong and getting burned for it 20.833% of the time (E or F).
