Social Mood and the Markets

Our trading this week at Volatile Mood is informed by the following:

According to social mood projections, Monday should be the most solidly bearish day for the stock market, and the middle of the week, the most clearly bullish or optimistic. A major shift in the market pattern should take place near the end of the week at the same time that social mood shows increased instability of one type or another is likely to be a focal point of the news. Spatial analysis shows that the most disruptive events are likely to occur outside of the United States. Regardless, they should get America’s attention.

Also known as Elliott waves!

You are correct that Elliott wave theory is based on the idea that social mood is reflected in the market, and can be used to draw conclusions about general market trend. It also sees mood as following specific wave patterns which leads to its use in technical analysis. What we are doing is measuring social mood more directly (for instance from Google Hot Trends and Top News stories) and using forward projections of the social mood waves to forecast near-future events and market movement.

This is a very interesting article. Thank you. As a professional former currency dealer I can tell you that half the day dealers just call each other up and ask “anything there” And we all have mood swings. We get hungry for lunch; we start yawning near 3pm an our minds start drifting and we rub our eyes after watching screens for 6 hrs. Mondays we come to work with all kinds of issues. The Sunday brunch didn’t work out and the kids need to pay their tuition fees. Even with automated signals at our disposals we often miss entry and exit points and trades go awry. Im glad you pointed this out; that’s why it is a slog and he/she who can learn to filter out the background mental ‘noise’ the most and quieten the mind is the one who succeeds. Thank you. Pieter Bergli, blogger at -

Our trading this week at Volatile Mood is informed by the following:

Uncertainty vs. Hope: Market Mood July 13-17, 2015

The week of July 13 is characterized by a struggle between uncertainty about the global situation and the desire to hope that everything is going to be OK. This will create an unusually choppy condition in the markets. Spatial analysis shows risk aversion in the United States to be slightly less this week than last week. While conditions are not yet clearly bullish, they appear to be less bearish than the previous week.

Tentative optimism is projected to wane early in the week and be replaced by a nervous hope midweek. By the end of the week, it may seem that it was too early to hope, as strong market moves return to the picture.