Warren Buffet is right as always or Let's share good ideas for MM and RM

Thank you for your trust in me :pray:
I did not know you already signed up for my strategies :slight_smile:

After all the words we have said, this is time of the market to talk, strategies to produce signals, RM to raise the flags when the risk rises and MM to calculate the investment size and try to make 2018 better than 2017!

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I look at the risk in a different way. From my past experience and that of many others, I found that setting a fixed number for risk that does not relate to the real market risk, does not fulfill its function properly…

What is the real market risk?
The system examines the risk as expressed by the possibility that the market will move against the existing position and gives it a number between 1 and 10, where 10 indicates the highest level of risk and 1 is the lowest.

The risk of a trade expressed at any moment in the market in many forms, such in the price of the securities, option prices, contract prices, the values ​​of the various indices, the number of securities traded, the pace of trading, the trading time and much more information that the system measures and calculates.

The result obtained by measuring the risk directly affects the amount invested in the market. The lower the number that expresses the risk, the size of the invested position is higher and vice versa.

This system is not related to STOP LOSS. When there is a disagreement between the market and the risk measurement system and the market continues to go against the trade, then the STOP LOSS comes into play … The STOP LOSS is indeed fixed and does not change and is intended to protect the trading account in periods of high volatility which can mislead the risk-checking system.

In this way, I let the market tell me the risk at any moment, and not through any number that may be appropriate in retrospect, but it is not certain that it will continue to operate in the real world…

Cannot agree more! That is it.

I dont think there is a proven way to know when Risk is at 1 and when risk is at 10. any algo or calculation is speculative or we been in “trend” of course there is no perfect answer or perfect solution. i think any strategy willing to pivot with trend or willing to change with the environment will be the way to go. too many unexpected event, variable and market manipulation to say this is “the way”

look at VIX DayTrader 1, use to be one of the most popular strategy on c2 for almost 2 years. then vix started to go only 1 direct non stop for 14 months. He missed out on all the gap up on XIV and cant squeeze enough profit during daily chops. My self went from trading strictly VIX only, to stocks, to options only, back to trading VIX, back to options and now back to stocks. Of course main reason mostly due to market environment and margin restrictions. My VIX metrics worked for me since 2011, but with the Interactive Broker drastic margin change in mid 2017 and risk:reward on vix trade starting to fade. I pretty much stop trading vix completely. im sure sometime in 2018 i will go back to trading VIX when the time comes.

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Every developer should run RM and MM in order to support his strategies… I am not saying that this is “the way” as you wrote, I am saying that this is the right way to manage MY strategies…

Your example “VIX DayTrader 1” does not add much to this conversation because we do not know his strategy and his RM/MM rules…We need him here to tell us what’s happened this year to his strategy…

My system does not care if the market is changing because my strategies are very flexible and they are able to change themselves as well… Anyway, I have a StopLoss order which will act promptly if the market will continue move against the current trade…

As I already said, I think that the most important thing in investments is not to lose money… This is the reason why my systems play defensive…

It is much easy to make money if you do not lose money…:slight_smile:

A great year to all C2 subscribers! :wine_glass:

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I totally agree with you. It is insane for traders say I know how much risk I am taking. The traders need to consider the worst conditions. Having this said, if you would like to have huge return, you must suffer the high probability to lose most.

Lately we saw a good example for Risk Management which actually we can better call it a Gambling Management :disappointed_relieved:

We call it Average Down.

Average Down means that you continue to add shares to your current position when the market continue to go against your initial trade instead of closing the position with small loss…

Average down is one of the most convenient way to show a great performance from one hand and from the other hand a blowing up…

The reason is very simple: When you trade this way you do not have a Risk Management… Actually you have a Praying Management… You pray most of time, even if you are not religious, that the market will save you again… Many times the market will listen to you and you will feel great but once in a while the market will be too busy to listen to you and the game will be over…

Our subscribers need to enjoy from good Risk Management…
They trust us and we must feel about their invested money like it was belongs to our mother…

Never invest with strategy which doing Average Down. Never.

Hello RobertPeterson,

100% agree. Martingale is NOT a strategy. It isn’t risk management. Wasn’t there a point where this trader knew the trade was bad? And couldn’t he simply add a stop at that point? I just took a stop today myself. I was wrong and I move on. I like to move away from bad trades as fast as possible. Even if this trader had a “mental” stop, that isn’t risk management. When a trade goes bad, emotions are heightened and the trader is blinded and doesn’t look at facts anymore preventing him from taking his “mental” stop. He talks himself into who knows what.

Here’s one “problem” with trading. People are brought up to do the right thing generally (with a few exceptions). It’s drilled in your head. Do good in school. Get good grades. Get a good job. Some traders have this idea that a bad trade is a reflection of themselves. And they try to protect this trade because being wrong on the trade means they are wrong and bad as a human. Most haven’t gotten over this simple hurdle. Trading is simply a game of probabilities and the odds are never 100% in your favor. So to “protect” that trade and not take it as a loss because you feel you failed because the trade failed is the wrong state of mind. A trader needs to learn to lose first before he can start making money.

There’s another “top” strategy that does this. No stops and martingale. I decline to mention the name of this strategy. Investors simply need to do their homework. This particular one seems interested in keeping his investors. At any cost. Do your homework and we shouldn’t have this issue come up again.

Ultimately, this is not good for this platform when this happens. Investors get burned and we may lose some of them. Is there enough new investors to make up for the lost ones? I don’t know. But we don’t have to lose anyone (except the gamblers). And that will make this platform even more popular.

Good day

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Dear PayoffMatrix,

I would like to tell you that I am jealous on you because you wrote this words and not me :disappointed_relieved:

I think that everyone should read it again:

“Here’s one “problem” with trading. People are brought up to do the right thing generally (with a few exceptions). It’s drilled in your head. Do good in school. Get good grades. Get a good job. Some traders have this idea that a bad trade is a reflection of themselves. And they try to protect this trade because being wrong on the trade means they are wrong and bad as a human. Most haven’t gotten over this simple hurdle. Trading is simply a game of probabilities and the odds are never 100% in your favor. So to “protect” that trade and not take it as a loss because you feel you failed because the trade failed is the wrong state of mind. A trader needs to learn to lose first before he can start making money.”

Thanks PayoffMatrix :pray:

One of the wise things I read lately…

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Thank you for the kind words Robert. Have a great weekend.