Many systems that I’m subscribed to crashed on 27th. Some did not crash but none made big money. This big move in the market was on opportunity that many systems that I’m trading elsewhere capitalized, but I see no such system in C2.
Has anyone found any system at C2 which took full advantage of the crash?
thanks,
Panu
Please look at DPRussell.
Yes, congratulations! Great short on 27th. However, unfortunately you got stopped out half of your position before the decline started.
Panu
Yes, unfortunately…
I don’t see why it would be considered “big winners of the decline” pm the 27th. Anyone who happened to be short that day was lucky, not a big winner It was not a predictable event, it was a reaction to the chinese market 10% drop
All 3 of my positions on target 60 were short.
Great, I’ll add you to My Analysts. Thanks.
One view of trading systems is that they are all based on pure luck. Other view is that it’s possible to catch a move when it starts and let the profits run as long as the move continues. Actually sounds very easy and straight forward to me (which it of course is not but should not be impossible either).
Panu your last post to me indicates you are looking for someone that can predict what will happen in the market. I can’t trade that way because I am not smart enough to know what will happen next. I develop trading signals that win most of the time. So it turns into a numbers game. If you can win 65% (for example) of the time you can make good money if the wins are roughly the same or bigger than the losses. For me trading can’t be a game of trying to guess what to do next. It is a rather boring method of following a tried and true signal that can make you good money in the long run.
I thought predicting what will happen in the market is what trading is all about. When you add money management to that, you have a system. Have I missed the point?
I call it trading by guess and by golly. You see some really hot market gurus that lately have known where the market is going. But none of them were in the spot light just a couple of years ago. The hot market gurus that were predicting the market accuratly a couple of years ago have blown themselvs out and are not longer in the spot light. By pretending to know where the market is going you are setting yourself up to get fleeced by the real insiders. For me I have to find a mechanical system that works well and have the discipline to use it.
Your mechanical system does not predict the market? What does it do then?
"Have I missed the point? "
Yes
It wins about 70% of the time in the long run. I should tell you the first week of Feb I changed the trading criteria on both of my systems. The timing model I am now using with target 50 will win about 70% of the time. Same with target 60, It is like watching paint dry. A steady 30 to 50% annually. The signal target 50 for example the IWM signal is calculated using the new high new low ratio of the NYSE. The QQQQ signal is calculated using the volitility index for the Nasdaq 100, Both totally different and both win about 70% of the time. Combined they give you a signal that is a little diverse and not based totally on just one indicator on just one index. I am leaving town for a couple of days I would welcome you to write me at rhaines8@houston.rr.com. We can continue this discussion after I get home using emails. Thanks and
Good Luck
tell me more
How do you make 70% winners and "A steady 30 to 50% annually" without predicting the market?
70% winners can maybe be done by not using stop loss and cutting profits short but "steady 30 to 50%" profit requires some prediction in my opinion.
Nobody “predicts” the market:
1) Take a look at the high failure rate of C2 systems. People THINK they can predict the market
2) Notice that many “GOOD” systems got slammed in mid May 2006 and late Feb 2007. Those who did well, claiming they saw the drop coming are full of hot air; no one “predicted” the Chinese market drop on THAT day. They just happened to ride their short on that day.
3) For the few systems that happen to do well over time, they most likely have identified a few setups that seem to lead to certain short-term price behavior. Such as buying dips/selling rallies, seasonal behavior, following the longterm bullish nature of stock markets, and other techniques etc. AND, they probably use good money management.
If they truly “predicted,” they wouldn’t have so many losing trades!!! There are no crystal balls here. When someone tells you they have a magical ability to see whats coming in a few months, a track record of ONE futures prediction is statistically insignificant. Show me someone who makes 28 calls out of 30 three months out, and you will have my attention…
You mean this is not prediction:
"For the few systems that happen to do well over time, they most likely have identified a few setups that seem to lead to certain short-term price behavior"
What is it then?
I don’t think anyone believes someone can predict the market with 100% accuracy. 51% accuracy should lead to positive results and - again - that’s what trading systems are all about.
"You mean this is not prediction:"
No, it is not. It is finding a short term market inefficiency that may have some probabilistic tendencies.
You need to distinguish from the base meaning of prediction as “an act of forecasting” from "an act of successfully forecasting."
I am addressing the LATTER meaning. Traders are trying to exploit short term inefficiencies. Too many people tout themselves as successful predictors of market behavior. They don’t KNOW it will be going up or down a month from now. But there are some occassions where over the next day or two, that when the market is in a certain setup, it tends to move in a certain direction a bit. But it may take good money management to wring out that profit. And there can be an awful lot of losses along the way.
Just the facts:
System: Magnum (Conservative) Futures:
STO 2 NKH7 NIKKEI 225 INDEX 17530 2/28/07 9:00 BTC 2
16700
3/7/07 9:00
$0
Fix
Low
$8,300
STO 1 @YMH7 MINI-SIZE DOW ($5MUL) 12793 2/20/07 22:46
BTC 1
12195
3/6/07 21:15
($45)
Fix
Low
$2,990
STO 3 @NQH7 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX 1757.25
2/27/07 22:50
BTC 3
1742.50
3/6/07 21:15
($670)
Fix
Low
$885
System: Magnum (Conservative) Stocks (Just a few of my short positions):
STO 50 DIA 127.40 2/22/07 9:30 0 122.06 (19:29t) $6,370 $9,421 $0
($9)
Fix
Low
$267
Close
Reverse
STO 29 SPY 146.05 2/22/07 9:30 0 139.70 (19:59t)
$4,235 $6,261 $0
($10)
Fix
Low
$184
Close
Reverse
STO 62 IVV 146.23 2/26/07 10:07 0 140.03 (16:15t)
$9,066 $13,407 $0
($11)
Fix
Low
$384
Close
STO 20 MDY 155.24 2/27/07 9:30 0 149.45 19:41t)
$3,104 $4,599 $0
($4)
Fix
Low
$116
Close
Reverse
