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I was looking through my own stats today and laughed a bit at this one:
I have already had a drawdown of 8.4% and am 99.99% sure that I will at some point have a drawdown of 10% or more even though the stats show a probability of 1%. I don’t fully know how those stats are calculated at C2, but they obviously aren’t going to be very accurate without a lot of history to any strategy. I imagine that most people already take all these stats with a grain of salt, but if you don’t you need to.
And…success!
Of course, I wish I had never had this drawdown. I would love to have been wrong on this. The reality is that fancy mathematical formulas, backtests, and simulations only have value when backed by reason.
It is great that C2 provides these stats, but don’t fall prey to fancy stats alone. I think people need to make sure that the investing philosophy of the strategy makes sense in the long term.
