DRAKEN ETF - Up 132% YTD

Draken ETF stock trading system is currently up 132% YTD with a Sharpe Ratio of 2.46. This system only trades equity ETF’s and is mostly shorter-term focused with some macro/ longer term trend plays occasionally taken.

Statistics

Strategy began 7/10/2015
Starting Unit Size $25,000
Strategy Age (days) 118.16
Age 118 days ago
What it trades Stocks

Trades 58

Profitable 44

% Profitable 75.90%
Avg trade duration 7.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown 43.26%
drawdown period Oct 20, 2015 - Oct 27, 2015
Cumul. Return 132.7%
Avg win $946.89
Avg loss $474.71
Ratios
W:L ratio 6.27:1
Sharpe Ratio 2.461
Sortino Ratio 4.323
Calmar Ratio 28.914

Use this code below to receive 50% ($49.00) off your first 3 months subscription: UGAP64544

Good Luck!

Draken

But max drawdown is 43%. I think the risk is too high.

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Hi Mike. Do you only focus on a draw down % when you evaluate risk? I do not think that solely focusing on draw down % as a measure of ‘risk’ makes much sense.

IE:

System 1 has a total return of 25% over the past 6 months, with a maximum draw down of 25%.

System 2 has a total return of 150% over the past 6 months, with a maximum draw down of 40%.

Which system is better? Which system would a subscriber be currently happier in? Which system is ‘riskier’?

A System 1 subscriber started trading with $25,000, and now has $31,250 after his 6 months of trading the system.

A System 2 subscriber started with the same $25,000, and now has $62,500 after his 6 months of trading the system.

Is system 2 still the ‘riskier’ system? Is it only ‘risky’ because a subscriber is more likely to panic and sell the bottom after buying in at the top?

It seems a bit asinine to lump ‘risk’ into a neat category without accounting for ‘reward’. You see, without factoring in the reward, risk is as meaningless as the moon cycle with regard to investor profitability.

I assume everyone is on C2 to make money, period. The only way you fully experience the pain of a max draw down is to buy at the exact top, and then sell at the exact bottom. Even a room full of 50 retail investors would mathematically have a very low probability of accomplishing this feat.

To assume that a max draw down % is a stand alone measure of risk without considering many other factors is overly simplistic in my view.

Consider, at the launch of my fund with $25,000, the ‘low water mark’ for any investor was right north of $18,000 with the initial draw down I experienced. This is a rather painful 28% haircut, and likely tough for many of my initial investors to stomach. Everyone that stayed the course however, saw their equity value soar to $34,000 within 6 weeks time.

The next ‘low water marks’ you can see on my equity graph, are represented by pullbacks to $29,000 & $33,000. Never once did those pullbacks go below an investors original ‘buy in’ price.

I realize that my system is obviously more volatile than many could handle, and that putting all of one’s investable assets into any single strategy is obviously a dangerous game. My point is that any investor who has stuck with my system despite draw downs, has been well rewarded for their strong dispositions. The idea of C2 (in my opinion) is best suited for long term portfolio management that rivals a hedge fund’s returns, that is, truly beating the market indices, and allowing those investors who ‘hang in there’ to sit back, relax with a margarita in hand and cheers to ‘Draken ETF’ as they watch their initial investment increase 3X over 2 years time.

I do recommend anyone starting off in Draken scale into their ultimate size to minimize fluctuations, and to realize in order to destroy market returns by only trading stocks, there is a modicum of risk trade-off to finish up a year over 150%.

At the end of the day, I know my subscribers will be happy, and I will be happy making them money. There will always be some bumps along the road in this game, but keeping a level head and remaining logical with a game plan will keep us in the game long enough to reward all that are involved.

Thanks for your inquiry Mike, best of luck trading!

Draken

Are you serious? You have lost more money in November than most systems on C2…you have lost 32% in Nov alone…and let me remind you, your drawdown is now above 43%. Those are simply the facts. In my opinion, the reward your fund offers is not worth this huge amount of risk.

Bottom line, yes risk does matter. And your fund has lost a third of its value in just the first half this month. If the next 15 days bring the same, that is just nonsensical.

Mike

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And do you plan to update us that your YTD return is no longer the 3 digit number it once was because of the huge losses racked up in Nov? Your fund is down 32% in Nov alone and your drawdown stands at 43%. Just wondering why we hear from you when your fund is doing well and why there are no updates when your fund is doing poorly, as is the case now.

Mike

Mike

Looks like you lost another $10,000 today—your value went from $46K to $36K. Do you plan to update us regarding these losses, or do you plan to provide another update after this black period is over for your fund?

Mike

I’d never follow a system with a drawdown of 43%. The maximum I’d accept is 20%.
Sorry, but I got bad experiences with drawdown.
In my opinion. the %-Drawdown is a good measure of Risk & Money Management.

Heiko

Holy smokes—the drawdown is now more than 70% and counting…do you seriously believe that you will get more subscribers with the risks you are taking? I see that you have pretty much avoided this forum since your fund’s decline—is that a coincidence or are you purposefully not responding due to your fund’s pending collapse?

Mike

Doubt we’ll see any more posts from strategist. Hope there wasn’t too much $ following a “system” with track record of 30 trades.

Your are right, he does not even response his emails. My advice, NEVER invest from anyone that does not responds emails, I have lost always with these traders

1 Like