Since ETF Timer recently switched to 100% cash, does that mean he thinks the stock market is at a turning point? Or does he think we will have a prolonged sideway movement and is that the reason why he opened up a new option selling system? Will his incredible forecasting ability continue? Only time will tell.
Any comments?
Is that so (100% cash)? I did recently notice another system he’s been trading with great - but muted to ETF Timer’s - results. So now he is trading a new options system, too?
I thought it would be useful to download all his past ETF Timer trades and compare entries and exits with the 2.25-yr market.
What indicator do you think he uses to hold LONG/SHORT or even add to it. What stop methodology is placed?
Either way, do you think some luck with indicator enters in? Do you think some averaging (not perceptible to equity curve) is involved?
More importantly, do you think this to be a successful long-term investment approach? Money management seems appropriate and with much market volatility …he has kept a 45 degree curve!
At what point do you think compounding his annual average will show up in equity? In other words, will you see (does he/do you expect) another 2.6X equity jump in the next 2.25 years or not?
It is nice to have income from subs - but to be able to confidently re-invest it in an equally powerful strategy result. . .
g
Gilbert,
I wish I knew what indicators he is using - probably a tightly guarded secret. Since it seems to be a discretionary system it requires a leap of faith to follow it. In addition, he always scales in and out of positions so occasionally there might be some very small averaging down. Interestingly, one of the most successful swing traders on elitetrader.com - Buy1Sell2 - even though he has not posted any trades for some time now, is adamantly opposed to scaling in or out, it just shows you that top traders can differ in their approach.
When you look on the Grid for systems 795 days old or older there are a handful with higher APR but most of them have huge drawdowns or wild swings in their equity curve. If Solaris (not to be confused with Solaris A10.2) which is only a few days younger, were available for auto trading and one could in fact achieve the same results as the ones shown on C2, then I would rate that system as equally good.
My main concern right now is about the direction of the market for the next weeks and month. If we are going to see a prolonged sideway move within a narrow range I think few systems on C2 will make any money.
