The opinions expressed in these forums do not represent those of C2, and any discussion of profit/loss
is not indicative of future performance or success.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading. You should therefore carefully consider
whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. You should read,
understand, and consider the Risk Disclosure Statement that is provided by your broker
before you consider trading. Most people who trade lose money.
ETF Timer is currently ranked number one on five different Leader Boards on Collective2!
It’s #1 on the Popular (All Instruments), IRA friendly, Old-Timers, New 52-Week High, and New 90-Day High Leader Boards!
I have been running ETF Timer on the Collective2 website since January 2008, over 17 years ago. During this time, ETF Timer has had a hypothetical annualized return of over 15%, net of commissions, subscription fees and autotrading fees, which equates to a total return of about 1,070%, from a starting value of $10,000 to its current value of approximately $117,000! In comparison, the S&P 500 returned about 350%, so ETF Timer outperformed the S&P 500 by over 700% over the past 17 years!
In celebration of this, I have just reduced the monthly subscription price of ETF Timer to $79 from the regular $97 cost, which is an annual savings of $216. I will keep the reduced price in effect for the entire month of July 2025. Once you subscribe at this reduced price you will keep that price for as long as you continuously subscribe to ETF Timer.
On August 1, 2025, the price will revert to the normal $97 monthly cost, so please take advantage of this price reduction soon!
DISCLAIMER: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS
To Trade Leaders on Collective2: This system, priced at $97 per month, only marginally outperforms a basic buy-and-hold strategy in the SPY index. While it slightly edges out the index, the modest performance gain raises serious questions about its value proposition. Consider the financial implications: with just a few hundred subscribers, the revenue generated could be substantial, potentially far exceeding the system’s actual market-beating returns. This disparity warrants careful scrutiny of its efficacy and alignment with subscriber expectations.
I actually was a very early subscriber to this system when the equity curve looked like this. Since then, the system has had a mix of good and bad stretches. The long-term performance is not bad and I commend Jim for sticking with the system for so long. I hope it is able to return to the glory days of '08 and '09…
Hi Gary, Thanks for those kind words, it’s always good to hear from a former subscriber of ETF Timer! I’ve made some significant improvements to ETF Timer since then and I would love to have you back as a subscriber! Just send me a direct message through C2 and I’ll set you up with a free month. Best, Jim
Disagree with Sean. Anybody beating the S&P long term at a reasonable risk and reasonable cost (this CAGR includes the drag of C2 fees, of course) deserves big kudos. So… Kudos, Jim! And many happy returns.
Okay, guys, let’s put it to the test.I asked Super Grok to compare this track record with the performance of QQQ and SPY in the same time period, and then compare them all for just the last 5 and 10 years.
The Good and Bad, You Decide: ETF Timer Portfolio
The ETF Timer portfolio was compared to QQQ (tech-heavy ETF) and SPY (broad market ETF) over different periods. Here’s a clear breakdown of its performance, risks, and what it means for you.
2008–2025 (18 Years)
Returns: ETF Timer’s 24.4% annual return crushed QQQ (18.5%) and SPY (12.8%), especially due to strong gains in 2008 (+77.4%) and 2009 (+75.2%).
Risk: Its worst loss (~30% in 2020) was much lower than QQQ and SPY (both ~50% in 2008–2009), showing it handled the financial crisis well.
The Catch: It’s riskier than SPY due to higher monthly ups and downs.
2015–2025 (10 Years)
Returns: QQQ (17.7%) slightly beat ETF Timer (17.5%), both far ahead of SPY (12.8%).
Risk: ETF Timer’s worst loss (-28.8% in 2020) was lower than QQQ (-35% in 2022) and SPY (-33.9% in 2020), offering better protection.
The Catch: QQQ’s tech focus gave it a slight edge but with more risk.
2020–2025 (5 Years)
Returns: QQQ led with 17.8%, ahead of ETF Timer (13.6%) and SPY (13.1%).
Risk: ETF Timer’s worst loss (-28.8% in 2020) was lower than QQQ (-35% in 2022) and SPY (-33.9% in 2020).
The Catch: ETF Timer missed out on tech-driven gains that boosted QQQ.
Key Takeaways
ETF Timer: Great for balancing high returns with lower losses, especially over the long term. Ideal if you want growth without stomach-churning drops.
QQQ: Best for those okay with big swings for a chance at higher tech-driven returns.
SPY: The safest but least rewarding, with steady but lower returns and similar or worse losses than ETF Timer.
Your Choice
Pick ETF Timer for strong returns with less severe losses, QQQ for tech-fueled gains with higher risk, or SPY for steady but modest growth. It depends on how much risk you can handle and what you’re aiming for.
That’s exactly what I intended to do when I created ETF Timer over 17 years ago- to outperform the S&P 500 with lower risk.
I also wanted to make it available to everyone at a reasonable price and be able to be traded in any type of brokerage account, be it a cash account, margin account or retirement account, as long as you can trade ETFs in it.
In addition, I keep the leverage relatively low, with an average leverage of only 1.12 as of today and I have never used margin in trading ETF Timer.
If you’d like to try it out, send me a direct message and I’ll set you up with a free month.
Collective2 reports 15% annual return for ETF timer, Super Grok states 24% for 2008-2025. Max DD for that period is 44% in 2010-2011 per Collective2 and Grok reported only 30% worst loss in 2020.
Stating smaller worst loss for ETF timer and still saying that it is riskier due to monthly volatility also questionable conclusion.
Are you actually for real with this nonsense right now? I was just jumping into the thread with my two cents, but clearly, you didn’t bother reading the whole thing. I’ve got zero connection to ETF Timer—nada. Instead of me spoon-feeding you, go back and read the entire thread. I swear, some folks on C2 are just brain-meltingly clueless. What’s your deal? Chasing some mythical perfect system? Spoiler: it doesn’t exist. If you’re shopping for a system, quit nitpicking what others say—good or bad—and do your own homework before dropping cash on anything here on C2. I’ve got my own system listed, and newsflash: it’s not ETF Timer. In fact, I wouldn’t touch that one for reasons I already laid out in the thread you skipped. Is that clear enough for you, or do I need to draw a diagram?
Thanks for the offer. I’m also here as a Trade Leader and am trying to achieve exactly the above goal. The start in 2022 went very well. Since the banking crisis in 2023, unfortunately, things are no longer working as planned.
Hi Sean, I think JITF was simply addressing the question you posed for us. Indirectly, I think perhaps he was answering that “Yes, you seem to be the only one losing it over how freaking awesome SuperGrok is.” But instead of simply answering like that, he justified it by pointing out the obvious mistakes it seemed to make for this query you posted. You posted it… not SuperGrok, so he responded to you.
JITF was not rude nor challenging you, just stating the facts around the SuperGrok response, and suggesting that the response accuracy (of SuperGrok, which you posted, and seemed to be praising) was “questionable”.
I can neither agree nor disagree that you might be the only one losing it over how freaking awesome SuperGrok is, I only know that I personally am not losing it over this issue, so I can say with confidence only that not everyone is losing it. And probably I am not alone in this state (e.g., JITF is probably not losing it either), so there’s at least two who are not. It will be improbable that anyone could answer your question accurately… there might be quite a number of people out there somewhere who are losing or have already lost it over SuperGrok. I only know that I am not one of them.
To everyone else, sorry about taking up space on this post in praise of ETF Timer to address Sean’s concerns. I sincerely hope he doesn’t feel the need to continue our SuperGrok conversation further here… I don’t think that’s warranted, and I will certainly stop now.
