I’ll say the same thing to you I said to Future-Systems.com, “watch and learn”.
The volatility you see (although now improved through less trades/more diversification) is a function of the annual growth obtained from my Funds. 50-75% per annum on average. Not to mention a most difficult recent market climate.
I probably could generate the type of 6-12 month equity curve burned in your brain - but without much longer-term hope. The typical trader at C2 with an equity like mine is often due to poor trading (severe over-allocation, wrong market direction calls, fear, greed, etc.) If you “drill down” with how mine unfolds you will see entirely the opposite.
My lows are contained due to correct Market Direction understanding (which bodes well in the long run) and proper allocation with limits. You can see that gains are made, but I’m being patient for the market to correct so I can put together a string of 30% runs - that will be preserved by again containing losses.
It won’t be long for things to unfold and more importantly success from these levels will be very rewarding.
Mr. Gilbert J. Arevalo
President & Chief Hedge Fund Strategist
Kingdom Capital Training Institute
Kingdom Capital Management
Cell: 323.365.9287
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Take a look at this!
Started: 09/21/2006
Although not many views so not really in keeping with my theme, but nevertheless a tanking or “volcano” system.
Had grown to $190,000 or 90% and in the last two months gave it all back. The system description clearly states that up till September 21, 2007 out of 172 trades 0 were extreme in risk while just 2 were very high. So what happened since then? You’ll see a string of some pretty risky trades - one with a 200k DD.
Nothing personal, but he has another system:
Started: 09/29/2006
With some following:
Viewed 1,321 times
Tracked by 41 My Analyst pages
With commentary: 0
And some 4-star reviews!
So what happened? I don’t feel really good about saying much since I know how difficult trading is, but from the overview: "Exits at pre-determined stops and limits ensure sound risk management."
This system had a 70% gain quickly reduced to 0. When the market sells off and it REALLY gets difficult it is that much more difficult to stick to stop methods and rules.
Truly best of luck with…
since I DO hope the hard lesson is now learned!
Sorry, just my observations.
Gilbert
you “probably” could, but you haven’t.
The people you expect to draw in have to have blind faith at the moment. You may have a great system, time will tell. But it’s difficult to listen to the developer of a system with an equity curve with a sharpe ratio of -0.4 and 50% risk of 20% drawdown criticise those with equity curves infinitely superior, however bad.
You may be correct Gilbert but at this time your credibility doesn’t lend itself to people easily folowing your substantive analysis of the market and others’ systems.
Surely you can see this?
Of course, but my views regarding trading and the markets may be meaningless to recent players, but I like to reiterate so when things unfold it becomes very clear.
Best of luck.G
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Thanks for your unsolicited critique of my systems.
A few points. First, to correct a few inaccuracies in your post. The 200k DD you are referring to in Broadsword Futures appears to be an error and I have applied for it to be fixed, thank you for pointing it out, if you look at the data behind the calculation clearly the 10yr did not go from 110 39/64 to 10. Unfortunately the rest of the statistics are true and the system has endured a bad run of losers, 15 of the last 16 trades, something out of the bounds of my expectations.
On Broadsword Forex contrary to your insinuation the rules have still been followed, what has transpired however is as I have described privately to my subscribers as follows "This is the risk of a trade signal generated by measures of momentum, sentiment or divergence, despite the fact that something is oversold and by every conceivable measure stretched to absolute extremes there is nothing to say it can’t go further as we have found to our cost. The fact remains that by signal alone remarkably the position has not yet been invalidated, but I would concede that a MMS probably should’ve been implemented by now and I possibly allowed my conviction in the trade’s merits to outweigh the larger picture of what we are trying to achieve for which I apologise. With hindsight all I would change is the position size so as to allow for such a run against us whilst still a valid trade. I am prepared to maintain the position as long as the signal continues to remain valid and I feel we have some balance in the portfolio with short dollar positions likely to offset any further move against us."
Let me now enlighten you as to what I personally think the reasons were for the recent poor performance of both systems. Both these systems take signals from multiple trading models and the problems have arisen when mulitple signals are generated across different timeframes because it then introduces a discretionary element in having to decide which trade to take. Additionally there is the issue of correlation which I have found to be a problem which even position sizing alone cannot always resolve. These are both areas which up to recently had not been a problem at all but clearly when markets have been trending strongly to extreme measures or at times of heightened volatility they are things that need to be accounted for as the run of losing trades and resulting drawdown are unacceptable to me.
This also highlights the benefits of single model systems such as my Macro and Equities systems which are both still performing well. The discretionary one has proved the point as I had feared that I personally need systematic entries and exits in order to trade successfully.
As a final point, as if it needed saying whilst I accept that for the current return the drawdowns endured have become unacceptable it has to be said both systems are at least still making money, something which you have not managed to achieve yet. Might I suggest you spend a little more time perfecting your own systems than publicly highlighting the faults of others.
Thanks for your reply Jon and it is encouraging that you have dissected all that you have been doing. Good results can only come from this. As for your explanations - a bit too deep for my understanding, I am only now - having incurred a more diversified portfolio at C2 - trying to simplify so that my trades and targets are clear and succinct.
Profits will come in fact today went green albeit temporarily, but the market did bounce back some so I’ll stay patient and begin to move past the benchmark indices.
I’ve seen you advertising and such and wish you well in continuing to facilitate outstanding services for your customers.
Gilbert
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>I’ve seen it and respectfully I couldn’t put very much confidence in that kind of trendline growth.
What, you didn’t like the speed of recovery? Your system went down 3 times and it took 1 month each time to recover, mine went down twice and took 2 and 7 days to surpass the previous high.
Sure I don’t like the DDs either, but at least there can be confidence that the system is able to do a full and speedy recovery…
Otherwise I like this thread, it brings up systems that otherwise I have missed…
That may be Pedro and I did now take a look at what transpired from 20-Oct-2007 to present. Individual trades are a bit over-allocated with many drawn down 1-2k using an S&P instrument.
So if you made 4k on 1k and go down 2k - like this market, it may not come right back to even out the trade. The S&P recovered its losses today, but the Nasdaq was left somewhat down.
A few turns like that with a Hedge Fund and well, it won’t be around for long - despite the joy of a 1 year vault into the stratosphere. It’s all about managing risk. I’ve been picking my spots until I can truly leverage to the upside. Then I’ll be patient holding those gains until the next opportune rally. This year (for me) we really haven’t yet had one.
I may not make 300% in a good rally but I’ll make 50% maybe more - without much leverage. In the meantime, I’ll wait. Sure I could try day-trading to make say 2-3k a day regardless of direction and may have a good run of it. It is just my experience that it will soon tire and end up nowhere.
My fluctuations, for now, are very contained in risk and basically biding time to actually make a serious move and then the name of the game is to hold onto most of those. You have to look at it like say I grew 20k to 100k in 2.5 years with reasonably well-managed risk and well-understood methods.
Do I want to then blow out my account this last five months trying to do more than I know I can? What happens if I risk and lose 30-40%. It will take much more - percent-wise - to make this back and I may never, since I’d be tempted to get it back quick with even more risk and blowup!
No, I’d rather wait another 3-6 months and jump when opportunity strikes (off a solid bottom after a REAL correction) and grow my Fund another 50-75%. If that can be done you’d be a winner since compounding will be huge and your belief in yourself that you can continue to do as such will be HUGE. We are talking $$hundreds of millions$$ - not possible with risk-enabled (i.e. volcano systems) management that is extreme.
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PayS aka gIL, bert.
Here’s a C2 account that seems to align with the methodology I outlined earlier:
mwz
Started: 01/16/2007 and has endured the same market all of us have,
Managed to navigate smooth enough. Michael is up $133,000 or a 187% annual return!
Individual trades contain low risk (tight stops for losses). Just gets in and out - hopefully with a profit. Not sure how stocks are selected or market direction, but it is safe to say one can routinely minimize losses and take a bit more on profits 5-10 times a day without betting the farm.
This guys routine has grown his curve upward through thick and thin with his “BTO” or “STO” decisions. Go figure. Daytrading does work; ).
So find a stock that is basically treading water on a day the market is volatile. Press the BTO or the STO button - take your pick and have an automatic stop at a preset percent with an calculated max allocation. Wait a few minutes. Hope for the best, but may get stopped. No prob, go on to the next. Wait! I get a winner and let it run a preset calculated amount and WHAM. Had a good day.
Will this be consistent. Have to try it and see! Unless you are me. Not for me. But with Michael’s containment of risk and prowess in strongly, consistently moving an account - I could let him manage a slice for me. That is one of my options.
Gilbert.
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