I have come to the conclusion, that there will never be any longterm reliable forex trading systems on C2 - having a good equity curve and good statistics (Sharpe, Profit Factor, APD, DD, etc.). The forex markets are very liquid, and and very efficient. The latest shock movement in some of the forex systems here have put the final nail in the coffin, from my viewpoint.
Futures and Stocks I believe, have a much better chance of being profitable for the average investor…
Many forex traders seem to be a different breed for some reason, but there is no reason good numbers can’t be maintained long-term.
Currencies have a lot of trends, if my memory serves me. And so trend following systems would look attractive for trading forex. But when the trend ends systems tend to fail. Since forex trading is somewhat new for most of us, maybe there just aren’t enough seasoned forex traders out there that understand this. Or maybe they feel a need to keep trading so they don’t lose subscribers, which of course dosn’t work.
Thats exactly right, You should never trade just for the sake of keeping subs happy. You trade when the moment is right. I guess the problem is that most people see trading as an exciting gig. On the other hand, most professionals believe trading should be boring. The majority of the time should be spent waiting for the right opportunity. Indeed, it should be boring.
In "The Grid"
Forex
Age >=300 Sharpe>=1 Ann. Return >=1 Total Pips >=0
With given number of active forex systems and total C2 systems you can estimate turn over of forex systems per year.
see you after one year 
Eu
list your criteria here.
I did:
"I have come to the conclusion, that there will never be any longterm reliable forex trading systems on C2 - having a good equity curve and good statistics (Sharpe, Profit Factor, APD, DD, etc.). "
Your curve is nice, but 3 weeks is not longterm.
And I’ve been the only one on here the whole time saying not to trade any forex system. It’s for institutions to hedge currencies. It’s not meant to be traded.
The person that likes it because it’s open 24/7 is a gambler. I think it’s where all the daytraders went after they they lost money in the dot com boom.
I’d never recommend any forex system on here.
I suggested it too, about a year ago, in the thread about the regression effect on the Sharpe ratio.
Sorry, Jules, I must have missed that. It’s been pretty prominent on my analyst page, or was.
I think there is promise with Futures and Stocks. But even then, it is somewhat slim pickings here… I would love to see a system that averaged ALL the C2 systems together. I would be surprised if it were even breakeven…
I’d be highly surprised if it did too since what 90% of traders lose all their money? I think that’s roughly correct so you’d assume an overall average would be well below breakeven.
If it moves up and down, it is meant to be traded.
But even then, it is somewhat slim pickings here…
Why do you expect more? In last two years I don’t remember even one step for vendors from C2 side. Not even verification of subscribers for “My analyst” page. I don’t speak about any attempts for increasing vendors revenue by introducing additional payments models. Even pay-for-performance wasn’t fixed for high water mark model and the fix allows more reasonable pricing. So… there is a little to none interest for professionals on C2.
Eu
P.S. It’s not only my opinion.
Some good points Eu,
Most systems seem to be from amateurs and many investors are amateurs going for the lucky young systems. I would like to see several categories of systems:
1) Less than one year old, and therefore not to be taken too serious yet. (higher risk)
2) Over one year. (less risky)
3) And over 2 or 3 years, to be taken much more serious.
When I see the "Old and Respected" list only requires a 180 day track record, time to upgrade that one to something like 2 years. If it only takes 180 days to become old and respected, that is like saying a 3 month system is old enough to trade. (Only for those who want to use it as a roulette wheel.)
As much as I like this website and Appreciate all the work and effort Matthew has put into it, C2 seems to cater to the amateur. Perhaps C2 has been around long enough now to view things from a longer term perspective.
Most systems seem to be from amateurs
It’s very easy to prove from available stats. Total number of systems 6372, active systems - 648, failed systems 5724, systems with one year history, Sharpe>=1 and profit>=0 only 45.
Survivors percentage is less than 1%.
and many investors are amateurs going for the lucky young systems.
I think we can speak about gambling from the point. Even poker has better survivors percentage. Russian roulette has unreachable for C2 chances lol
As much as I like this website and Appreciate all the work and effort Matthew has put into it, C2 seems to cater to the amateur.
I also appreciate what Matthew done so far, but let’s be a little bit cynical. C2 earns money from both sides subscribers and system vendors, so logically speaking major money flow for the business is coming from high turn over ratio on both sides.
However if C2 will do nothing to attract better vendors it will become pure gambling site. just my 2c.
Eu
It’s not that easy… You seem to assume that all systems that are no longer active did not survive (i.e. they collapsed and are counted towards your 5724 “failed” systems). But I know quite a few systems that halted trading, while their performance was reasonable or even quite good.
You seem to assume that all systems that are no longer active did not survive (i.e. they collapsed and are counted towards your 5724 “failed” systems).
What is percentage of the “succeeded” systems to “failed”?
But I know quite a few systems that halted trading, while their performance was reasonable or even quite good.
I know as well. It was my main point. If C2 looses good/stable system vendors it won’t survive long. Amount of “wannabe” won’t resolve an issue of good/reasonable trading and following good/reasonable investments. In my opinion C2 has to do more for attracting professionals vendors. From technical point C2 has all chances to become more serious trading community and out beat competitors.
Eu
I’ve shared the exact same sentiment with Matthew. I’m pretty sure I’m the only one that claims to be a professional, so we need about fifty more of me around. That’ll be fun.
"I’m pretty sure I’m the only one that claims to be a professional"
Quite possibly, but then again maybe the others don’t feel the need to shout about it. Just a thought.
Perhaps, but I’m willing to concede that those that call themselves CTA’s might qualify as such, even though I don’t know what the designation stands for.
Hey beau look at that
Advice for all investors : don’t invest your money on future systems. it’s only for options hedging purpose . lol .
