I am a skeptic, but I think it is less funny than strolling into C2 with the EliteTrader.com statement than "it shouldn’t take too long to make top 10 systems at C2"
The thing that bugs me the most is a “let’s show those idiots” by newbie vendors, who seem to lack humility and a grasp of reality. They tromp into C2 with an “everyone else is clueless and I will show you how it is done” attitude, fall on their faces, and then disappear in 1-6 months.
I am a skeptic, too…and only expect from myself what I know I can do and do it. As you say the rest is just drivel - foolishness we’ve all seen before. And in that part I am and will be responsible.
But what gets me is when it comes down to it, it’s you and others that won’t even concede a liitle bit.
Talk investments and show us something meaningful, Ross.
What more can I say.Ga
Ross this is a wonderfull opportunity for you. Why don’t you make a EOD signal that is better than TMG? As you can see this is a formula for success. Not only would you make money in your own portfolio but you would gain the acclaim you so strive to achieve. This is your opportunity to show the world how good you are. I am sure it would be far more effective than the approach you are taking currently. Think about it. Then do it! You can do it. I believe in you. Show us. Go for it. Make a money making signal.
"Ross this is a wonderfull opportunity for you. Why don’t you make a EOD signal that is better than TMG? As you can see this is a formula for success. Not only would you make money in your own portfolio but you would gain the acclaim you so strive to achieve. This is your opportunity to show the world how good you are. I am sure it would be far more effective than the approach you are taking currently. Think about it. Then do it! You can do it. I believe in you. Show us. Go for it. Make a money making signal. "
-What a great idea!!
> I don’t understand the many views either.
Going back to Ross’ initial post, and the cluster of reviews, when
we sign in to C2 we are greeted with three free TMG advertisements
right on the C2 home page. OK, it IS a good system but there
are other good systems on C2 and only one other happens to have a review in that top four…
"Great system. They had a rough time for a while this spring but tweaked the system on 5/7/07."
Question: if TMG was “tweaked” on 5-7-07 then aren’t all the backtest
results on C2 and the merlin site invalidated?
On the merlin site there is an equity chart that shows “current model backtested portfolio growth (last 3 yrs)”.
Questions:
1) Does the backtest include the May “tweak”?
2) Why not test from early 2000 and show how it did
in a bear market?
3) Why “portfolio”? Isn’t TMG just a QQQQ system?
"The fact that it puts money in your pocket means little, if you could do that by just following the market on a buy and hold for the same period."
My only comment here stems from the many folks I know who were "buy-and-hold"ers in mutual funds during 2000-2002: they had no stoploss system in place and waited another 5 years to get back to where they had been in early 2000. A simple 200-day moving average stoploss would have saved them at least 4 years of waiting and recouping!
I totally get your points about buy and hold, but I am also aware that buy-and-hold is a philosophy, NOT a system. Buy-and-holder beware. 
Buy and hold overall has trashed and trumped most market timers over the decades. Market timers like to tease out historical periods where "you would have taken 10 years to get back to even." But the percentage of market timers who outperform for an extended time are few and far between. Another timing site (timertrac.com) has VERY few top-performing timers from about 3 years back. There are exceedingly few timers on C2 who last for any length of time with a truly outperforming method.
The point is, that many people wandering into C2 have little idea about a system that outperforms. Systems that make instantaneous trades representing 50% of the daily volume of a lightly traded stock. Others who scalp (with a beautiful equity curve) and have an average profit like several dollar per unit trade that is less than the commission, spread, slippage, system fee, not to mention time sitting there making manual trades or paying for automated, systems that just leverage a current bull market, and wipe out like on Feb 27, last mid-may, even a few days ago when it dropped strongly.
The real question that new traders here should be asking is, "with all the stats, equity curve, realism, length of time trading& perceived maturity of vendor, plus the trading costs, system fee, and other expenses, will I outperform by a GOOD margin? If not, buy and hold is better.
Hey Ross now you are talking there. Some good wisdom.
>“The fact that it puts money in your pocket means little, if you could do that by just following the market on a buy and hold for the same period.”
>My only comment here stems from the many folks I know who were "buy-and-hold"ers in mutual funds during 2000-2002…
I tried to hint at this as well. To compare TMG’s performance over
a selected short term “Buy and Hold” period is not fair. This is
the same thing unscrupulous system vendors do when they only
publish results for select time period. The nice way to put it is that
it’s a “well chosen example”… Many C2 systems that do well in
uptrends cite the period going forward from 2002 here and/or on their
personal sites. Why not go back to 2000? Even TMG which boasts a 70% winning percentage on the short side emphasizes the post 2002 period on its site. Similarly Ross, with the benefit of hindsight, has cherry picked the “Buy and Hold” period from a recent low to a recent high. If it were so easy to know when to buy and hold everyone would do it ;-). Obviously selective “Buy and Hold” isn’t Buy and Hold at all, it is better known as Market Timing…
"picked the “Buy and Hold” period from a recent low to a recent high. If it were so easy to know when to buy and hold everyone would do it ;-). Obviously selective “Buy and Hold” isn’t Buy and Hold at all, it is better known as Market Timing…"
Actually the time picked shines the best light on TMG, a trough to high. The point is, that although it appears to have recovered, the terrible mistiming it had on numerous trades during its decline, followed by an inability to outperform “buy and hold” indicates instead that it may have "lost it."
The only remaining questions is the claim that on May 7, they recalibrated the system.
> In other words, TMG did little more than ride a strong bullish period. On the other hand, a truly impressive system (that outperforms) makes significant money on both its long and short calls. Anyone buying and holding would have made about $10,800 during this time. Throw in $375 or so in system fees, and a few commissions, and you would have performed equally well…
This is “best light”?
I have my own questions about TMG, and about particular trades, but
"…terrible mistiming…“
It had a 10% drawdown. Not a big deal. Sometimes you want to have your cake and eat it too.
Again you say “inability to outperform “buy and hold””. How can you
cite a 2 month period as an example of buy and hold? I’m sorry Ross,
that’s absurd. This is a two way system. It is nearly impossible that it
will out perform a long only equity curve in a near perfect cherry picked uptrend. It has outperformed buy and hold since inception and it’s
not using leverage.
Respectfully Ross, your comments don’t sound like someone who has dismantled 1000’s of trading systems. Sounds like you have an ax to grind.
> The only remaining questions is the claim that on May 7, they recalibrated the system.
Yes, as I said in my previous posts. But the real question(s) is if the
"recalibration” has been incorporated into their advertised equity
curves and if it will hold up in a down trend or choppy phase.
And, are they goosing C2 views?
And, why not show the equity curve on the TMG site from the 2000
high or earlier if this is truly a two sided system?
a truly impressive system (that outperforms) makes significant money on both its long and short calls
Ross I would like to weigh in on this statement. You are right to a extent. I have found developing signals. If you have a very strong up trend in the market you can expect to make around 75% of your profits long. With a one way market it is very difficult if not impossible to make 50% of your profits on one side and 50% on the other. Your most porfitble trades will always be on the side of the trend. I have seen some very good signals (not the best) that break even on the wrong side of the market and make all of their profits with the trend. In summary if you are not giving back your profits on the wrong side of the market than the percentages are on your side and you will most likely make good money.
Also if I were you I would quit ripping the best signal on C2. You don’t look so smart.
> the best signal on C2.
The best? Based on what? It’s not in the top ten stock
systems based on Sharpe. It’s not in the top twenty
based on PF, annual return, or drawdown. Of course it
might not be in the top 100 vs all systems on C2 in the above
categories.
Again, I like it so far, but why do you say it is the best?
"I have seen some very good signals (not the best) that break even on the wrong side of the market and make all of their profits with the trend."
I have generally found that systems that make their money this way for longterm are mostly just leveraging the trend. I agree with you that the good systems on a trend might be about 75%/25% or so. Longterm, that is superb performance.
Also if I were you I would quit ripping the best signal on C2. You don’t look so smart…
Sam said it best. Blind comments have little value. I am of the opinion that barring the claimed May 7 rewrite, TMG may have lost its way due to a changed market structure. Few vendors can continue blazing performance. THey did very well. Then they looked downright clueless for a few weeks, always being on the wrong side of the market on each trade. Since then, they have been relatively ordinary compared to the market rise. Time will tell.
