TMG on DNX futures?

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1

Hi,



Does anyone know if Merlin/TMG works on NASDAQ100 Futures (DNX) rather than just on QQQQ?



I guess there may be some cash to futures differences relating to cost of carry, dividends, etc, but there may also be some wider differences (especially around the opening) that would spoil the signals developed for QQQQ when used on DNX futures. Does anyone have any experience of this?



(In the UK, we can spreadbet and pay no tax. The company I spreadbet with offers positions on NASDAQ100 Index futures but not QQQQ.)



Thanks, Luke

2

TMG shows an average profit per share per trade of $0.18. A few ticks slippage from spreadbetting NDX instead of trading QQQQ might quickly erode your tax advantage.

3

Thanks again Science Trader. I’ll look into contract sizes, etc.



Currently, the Tech100 futures spreadbet (daily) is quoted 1941.5/1943.5 and the Sept is quoted 1940.25/1944.25… so I’d have to see how the percentages scored on TMG translate to these quotes.



In addition, it may be that QQQQ doesn’t track the futures prices closely enough and the spreadbet prices don’t track the futures closely enough… a lot of tracking errors… hopefully slipping in both directions, but not necessarily.



Cheers, Luke

4

Hi Luke,

it seems the Sept spread is ~0.2% of the price, which would equal to $0.10 for a similar position in QQQQ. I.e. more than half of the $0.18 average profit …

5

I’ll be setting up an IB account then and paying some tax by the look of it - hopefully :wink:



There are other ways of mitigating tax in the UK, so it’s better to have the profit from following TMG on the correct exchange and then worry about the tax later rather than making a tight system even tighter.



Thanks again Science Trader

6

Luke,



I traded TMG signals through SB for a few months and found my results closely mirrored the results posted by the provider.



I stopped using the system for other reasons but my (limited) experience suggests you shouldn’t worry.



(I have a IB account too, so I’ve no axe to grind!)



Cheers,

UTB

7

Cheers Richard, I’ll do some more research into SB.



Why did you stop?



Regards, Luke

8

Against my usual scepticism, I bought into the system based on the fantastic hypothetical historical returns, coupled with about 6 months of real time results. The system then “crashed” by about 10%. Now usually this isn’t enough to frighten me off - but they then tweaked the rules (I believe there are around 25, so curve fitting is a real risk here) and this brought me back to my normal standpoint of wanting to see a longer real time performance.



I track the system still, and I’m waiting for more history and to see how it performs if the market turns down long term (so far, it’s struggled when the market turns south).



Good luck,

Rich

9

Thanks Richard for your kind reply.



Cheers, Luke