The system manager has missed his milestone of recovering the account by the end of January or restarting the trading system. I wish the manager well with his endeavors to revise his trading algorithm to manage successfully the risk of low frequency events that can lead to large draw downs. The question for me is when to trade the system with confidence that it will risk manage low frequency events with large drawn down once it restarts. The test period could be in the order of 168 trading days (estimated by 825 trades divided by 2 risk events multiplied by average trade period of 9.8 hr divided by 24hr). To have a reasonable chance of seeing the management of this risk by the revised algorithm working successfully, and then it would be prudent to resubscribe to the system. However, this test period could be reduced if the system manager released the new performance data from the back testing of the revised algorithm along with restarting the system. As the core of the algorithm has been shown to be good I hope the manager is successful in revising it to risk manage low frequency large drawn down events…[LINKSYSTEM_72452857]
