How’s everyone doing today? Will North Korea and Trump bring this market down? Just asking
Doing well. VIX Trader has been flat since yesterday morning so missed the volatility disaster today plus all my brokerage accounts have been flat for several days.
Good job, I think the vix could spike over 20 on any bad news
Possibly. I think some of the strategies shorting VIX options got hammered.
I’m seeing some drawdowns of over 60% just today on some of these VIX strategies. Ouch!
however, if you are new to some of these VIX strategies & have been on the side-lines waiting for this opportunity-- this may be the time to start legging into these strategies. Hopefully we finally get some range trading & volatility–instead of the markets being pinned everyday. This will be a great time to watch which strategies survive, and which don’t.
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This move down was telegraphed in the volatility complex and there was plenty of time for VIX traders to defend themselves before it got bad.
What people should be worrying people who think this is bad is a move like what happened on Feb 27 2007, where it was low vol calm calm calm and then one day DEATH. That is the type of move that would cause triple digit percentage losses in some of these models, and even that wasn’t an overnight big gap in vol, it was an intraday move that in theory could be stopped out.
A big gap in vol coming out of a low vol environment would be complete devastation and not defensible if one didn’t already have a tail hedge in place. Big gains in these models mean nothing if one day you wake up and the account is NEGATIVE.
The market is a dangerous place, mind the leverage, and if you are going to leverage when it comes to short vol or short premium, you better have a tail hedge in place before an event happens…
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What I have seen from all volatility models, Only Volatility Trader is in big positive return now. Others drop very significantly. There is no crystal ball however when he shorted SVXY during last month, which subscribers can stand? everyday is loosing money while other models are making money.
At least, I can see his model survive during crash time like this. His model is not for everyone even though he is a good developer.
Kind of scary, I don’t think most of the subs understand the danger with vix options. Imagine a day when the market drops 500+ or the VIX spikes to 30. You might end up being homeless.
Scale small and set a stop loss.
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That is exactly what I’m doing with my volatility system. Of course my strategy lost today as I’m constantly long XIV but it was an insignificant loss. Once more I can show that my system is built around maximum possible safety while aiming for well above market returns in the long run. Anyone who is interested, check it out and put it on your Watchlist to stay up to date.
If anyone wants to join at this point, contact me for a discount.
AlexanderG please stop touting your systems.
You haven’t made money in any of them. lol.
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You’re wrong. Plain and simple.
SmartVolaPlus - Return since inception: -0.7% after 4.5 months. Max DD so far of -4%.
LongTermGrowth - Return since inception: +4.9% after 9.5 months. Max DD so far of -23%.
S&P 500 TR - Return in 9.5 months… +15% with max DD of -6%.
I stand corrected. You are killing it. LOL
what we need is more daytrading systems. systems that take signals at night are too dangerous mostly with vix systems. There needs to be intraday stops in place.
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DogZebra You´re comparing apples with pears which is dumb. Maybe you´re aware of that but I wouldn´t bet a penny on it.
Haters gonna hate.
@TT3 Daytrading systems have a huge disadvantage, the piled transaction costs. That´s why barely any daytrading strategy work over a longer period of time. So unless you switch from swing trading to daytrading only under certain circumstances, a pure swing system would perform way better than a pure daytrading system over time.
VIX strategies can not avoid overnight risk.
Only futures strategy can solve this problem as it can set a stop to protect overnight positions.
Almost all VIX strategies developers simply have no market timing ability. Their winnings come from simply longing XIV(SVXY) at all time. They don’t have any idea what time they should long and what time they should sideline.
If they try to sideline sometimes to avoid risk, it will significantly worsen their return performance.
Current market situation is still much better than in 2014-2015, when every 1 or 2 months there was a severe market drop.
So watch out.
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My strategy Boux VIX did not get crushed, in fact made money on the VXX.
Looks like many of the vix systems that did well in the last 6 months just got lucky by shorting. Many are not looking at the overall market and taking on heavy losses in the last 2 weeks. We need a new hot trend. Back to ES systems?
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Here we go again, VIX went from 11 to 16 in a day, breaking news can break your system.
