Thank you for asserting that you are inane, incredible, and foolish.
>>> trust me...
>> I was born at night, but I wasn't born last night....
>Well, show me the proof ...
I'm not going to show you my birth certificate....but I do
think you should be impressed by my writing if you believe
I was born last night.
Oh! I can prove you have 9 systems. Is that what you mean?
No. Only 5 of my systems are active now. Of that 1 trades stocks, 1 futures, 1 forex and the other 2 both futures, the short positions of which are shown below, all short positions only exclusively (satisfied?):
Here are the other short positions in Mosaik (E. Agg.) Test:
STO 8 NKH7 NIKKEI 225 INDEX 17530 2/28/07 9:01
BTC 8
17085
3/7/07 9:00
$0
Fix
Low
$17,800
STO 3 @NQH7 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX 1758.92
2/27/07 23:01
BTC 3
1745.92
3/6/07 21:15
($1,020)
Fix
Low
$780
Method: Midas (Prudent) Test:
STO 2 NKH7 NIKKEI 225 INDEX 17530 2/28/07 9:09
BTC 2
16700
3/7/07 9:00
($100)
Fix
Low
$8,300
STO 1 @NQH7 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX 1764.50
2/28/07 9:01
BTC 1
1742.25
3/6/07 21:12
($370)
Fix
Low
$445
> all short positions only exclusively (satisfied?)
Are you saying you made one good trade or two out
of your 11 systems? Anyway, you win.
Great job! You made a winning trade…um, er, is it still
an open position? Aren’t you the guy that wrote several
thousand pages about how open equity doesn’t
exist? Or does open equity only count when it’s a
profit? You need to get together with ES 3 points a day
and write a book on your new math.
How can anyone ever overcome your brilliant responses? However, it was lacking the customary 1,000 word essay on "try to write something that avoids logic and impresses none."
Ross - That’s not entirely true. I was watching the night market, and the ES began a steady decline that “night before” as the Shanghai and Shenzhen day market began losing ground. As a result, I closed out my long positions early (before hitting my stops) and then went to sleep.
I’m now incorporating overseas market indices into my trade management system, so that this type of activity is automatically detected and acted upon next time. The indices of interest to me are:
China
Hong Kong
Japan
Singapore
Taiwan
Germany
Britain (London)
Any decline out of the ordinary (as defined by my averaging rules) will page me, day or night and block pending long opens from taking place.
History often repeats itself. While we cannot prevent it, we can at least be prepared the next time around.
I found Grandma’s system valuable.
System survive in the crash and made money with more then 5-10 trades. Amazing but system made money with long orders. ( I didn’t found any shorts here). Just added to my analyst page.
Hi all,
interesting to see. Two weeks are past. 2% down today… and the same systems that got burned on 2/27 got burned today again.
When are they going to learn that averaging down to eternity is a risky business?
Happy trades to all!
My system “Indigo Futures System” went short 02/22/2007 (since inception) anticipating a trend reversal.
I started my system 02/21/2007 so it is a too short period to judge the system’s performance.
In my opinion, the current market pattern of the major indices looks similar to the one exhibited last May. A correction in the range of 5%, a bounce towards the 50-day EMA and then another correction of 5-6%.
" My system “Indigo Futures System” went short 02/22/2007 (since inception) anticipating a trend reversal. I started my system 02/21/2007 so it is a too short period to judge the system’s performance. "
Way too short a period. Being short going into the 27th (one decision point) is little better than blind luck…
Yes, but he answered the original question of Panu, litterally. Panu asked, he answered. You can’t blame him for that.
I take issue with the "anticipating a trend reversal. " I mostly disagree with those claiming brilliant foresight to the downtrend.
Anyone with half a brain will tell you that the US economy is heading for a massive downtrend.
Do not misinterpret what I said in response to the original question :
1. The original poster asked whether there were any profitable systems during crash - my answer was to point out that my system was profitable during the crash.
2. I did not state or imply that I predicted the crash.
It’s certainly true that any non-news based systematic trader who ends up on the lucky side of a huge day is exactly that, lucky. Newer traders who were on the correct side of the 2/27 market event will no doubt continue to believe that the market is an astrology-like system, where what is going to happen is all accounted for and predicted by what has happened; and be happy that their system predicted things correctly. In trading, the most valuable lessons always come from failure.
For the rest, my thoughts on 2/27 are as follows:
My instinct is that, for systematic traders, adding the information that Lew brought up could possibly reduce the chances of some admittedly very selective events, such as 2/27/07. I certainly will be looking into it myself. Foreign market action continues to be more relevant to what takes place in the US markets, and it’s worth quantifying in respect to your program.
That said, if your program is designed properly designed to take advantage of typical market inefficiencies, to my mind you should have a filter that eliminates trades for a certain period after atypical market movement. Markets become very unpredictable after such events, and relied-upon inefficiencies disappear. Ideally you should design systems with a filter like this in place, otherwise your program is at least partially selecting results from these primarily random periods.
I understand there are some traders that will disagree above statement.
For the rest, if the above sounds logical, and you wish to apply it:
First, you must define all of the above within your program parameters. Next, when applying it to your backtesting you must understand that it will make your results worse. That is a natural consequence of applying logic-based, real-world logic to your backtested system. On the other hand, it is very, very, very likely to save your trading account huge equity dips in the cold reality of out-of-sample trading.
My two cents, I thought I’d share.
Anyone with half a brain will tell you that you cannot make these kinds of predictions.
They predicted that Japanese manufacturing would bury the USA 20 years ago. Instead, the Japanese have suffered from many years of market stagnation. They kept interest rates near zero trying to get the thing to come to life.
A few years ago, they predicted that outsourcing of IT (computer) jobs would bring the USA to their knees. Instead, suddenly IT professionals have their choice of jobs, and salaries keep climbing steadily…
Gold bulls have been trumpeting the massive downtrend of the USA for nearly 30 years. And declaring $1000 gold was just around the corner. Anyone who was heavily invested in gold for these past few decades has lost a fortune in opportunity in the equities market.
And who was that Indian author who trumpeted the coming great depression in the USA (some 10-15 years ago)? Not to mention many other authors.
The alarmists keep ringing the bell, but the train keeps moving forward.
Yes if people keep saying over the next century, "massive downturn" we will experience slowdowns, recessions and likely a depression. It is called market cycles.
I’d say anyone with half a brain can certainly see that is a likely outcome.
Only a fool would predict it.
10/10
And only a fool predicts that the sun will rise in the morning too?
The problem is when you confuse a fact with an opinion.
