I’ll bow out of this conversation from here. I personaly think the very, very worst thing a trader can do is to get involved with forums. 
Until I see Warren Buffet or George Soros posting on internet forums I’ll make this my last post on any internet trading forum anywhere. Have a good evening everyone! David
I mentioned Astrology, you use the Sun for your analogy. You made me “laugh out loud” for real.
The sun doesn’t rise at a time that takes into account the combined opinions of millions of individual market participant’s opinions.
That’s why there’s no “if the sun will rise tomorrow” futures … get it?
It was amazing, wasn’t it?
When you work for 100s of millions of dollars you tend to limit your thoughts to those who pay you to have them, or I’d think those paying would tend to feel ripped off.
That said, those two notables certainly have allowed many record interviews, and like all successful traders/investors they assert you’re doomed to failure if you try to predict short-term trends, which they feel is impossible. Warren Buffet (aka, " Mr. buy & hold companies that are undervalued") is perhaps the worst example you could have brought up to defend your market prognostications.
Apparently you disagree with the two icons you brought into this conversation, but you’ve decided you’re done here and that’s clearly smart.
One more post…80% of currencey trades are made by 10 major banks, not ‘millions of market participants’.
Secondly the economic decline of the US is a fact not an opinion.
Secondly the economic decline of the US is a fact not an opinion. - David Nickerson
So is the eventual exhaustion and implosion of our sun. There… I saved you the trouble of bringing the sun (or stars) back into this thread.
The current ecomonic decline of the US is a fact not an opinion.
You can quote CNN , Fox, Bloomberg etc. to counter that (I’m sure you will)
Also please continue to parrot every ‘how to trade’ internet site/book under the sun.
Well, Dustin Dubia It’s very grateful from you side to make the info publicly available. I agree with you/all yours point of view.
Only one question if you don’t mind
Foreign market action continues to be more relevant to what takes place in the US markets, and it’s worth quantifying in respect to your program.
When I have to have a sleep? lol First is Asia market - Second is Europe - Last one is the states. You have to analyze all the markets before the states bell. It’s nearly impossible for retail trader.
Anyway, there are bunch of girls who went left after 2/27 and there will be bunch girls who will go left before the market stabilized.
The question isn’t imho about profit, we’re speaking about surviving in very unstable market. Just my 2c.
Eu
P.S. … and yeah… there are billions of gurus who knows everything and can predict everything … after the fact of course.
I wonder why you aren’t working for the world’s financial firms that employ some of the smartest people in the world?
Those individuals admit that any modern economy is too complicated to predict accurately., and also that unforeseen shocks can and will happen against their predictions, that could also completely invalidate their predictions. All of these brain trusts can only make predictions, but you know where things are headed.
I noticed you couldn’t help but bring the sun into it again – very funny.
It’s telling that we’ve had a very (to my mind, at least) recent event applies to all these market prognosticators. Did your model do well in the 9/11/01 scenario? If so, and you don’t attribute that to blind luck … enough said. Oh, your model predicted that? Take that logic down a few degrees, and there you go for 2/27/07 … unless it also considers overnight date from foreign markets, at the very least.
I’m not slamming anyone’s method, just one person’s silly response.
Good post.
…but isn’t this why we are model traders
Most models and certainly mine are designed with a certain mkt condition in mind. Therefore on 2/27, range trading type models were stopped, short term momentum models were already short from day before and breakout theory models went short intraday.
Very hard to design a model for all seasons (and then it is probably curve fit anyway)
If we are to stay in game, just cover bases… the holy grail is yet to be found
The question isn’t imho about profit, we’re speaking about surviving in very unstable market. Just my 2c.
It sounds like you’re in agreement with everything I’ve said, but you’ve already stated that =)
Well, I don’t know if you’re a systematic trader (I think you are, but I’m not sure) – but if so, those values you mentioned are available as readily as the price of any US stock issue from moment to moment, right? No need to disturb your so very much needed beauty sleep =)
if so, those values you mentioned are available as readily as the price of any US stock issue from moment to moment, right?
Hmm… Right. At least as I understand it.
Eu
Foolishness and the ability to predict sunrise aside, here are my 2 cents …
Most of the oscillators I follow (both daily and weekly charts) were in the extreme overbought zone around 02/19/2007 onwards.
My experience has been that when this happens a correction is generally due. Ofcourse, one cannot predict the date and time of the correction, or whether such a correction will indeed happen. If the market has moved in one direction too much too fast then the likelihood(probability) of the correction is high.
Entering short positions into rallies and using position sizing one can gain advantage.
Likewise, it is difficult to estimate the strength of the correction if and when it happens - whether it will be 4% or 20%. Prior corrections and behavior of the markets in similar situations in the past is the guiding force. And there are various vested players - from hedge funds, institutions, central banks that can change the dynamics of a correction or a rally.
On the past 5 occasions over the last 3 years, the major indices have corrected 6%, bounced back to 50-day EMA which co-incidentally(?) happens to be 33% retracement of the original correction and then retest the prior lows before continuing their rallies. If the retracement (bounce) is 50% or more of the correction, then a second correction did not occur and the secular rally has continued.
So will this make me money ? Will it be different this time ? I do not know. But I will be more inclined to enter my trades accordingly.
Last but not the least there will be times when a trader will be wrong and will fail, perhaps miserably.
And I am sure I will be reminded of this fact by the members of this board - and I definitely look forward to healthy non-personal criticism.
Have a nice day !!
The current ecomonic decline of the US is a fact not an opinion. - David Nickerson
So is the eventual exhaustion and implosion of our sun. There… I saved you the trouble of bringing the sun (or stars) back into this thread.
Since you seem to miss the point… it’s easy to state the obvious. It is more difficult to pinpoint the exact dates on which the obvious will fall.
I gave your previous response 10/10.
I give this one 10/10 too.
Solid thought, solid thinking. It’s nice to see you respond as a vendor that was on the correct side of 2/27, and it’s instructional to see your responses here as they relate to the discussion.
"Most of the oscillators I follow (both daily and weekly charts) were in the extreme overbought zone around 02/19/2007 onwards."
That is irrelevant. Oscillators can stay there for long periods. When they do have value, it is generally when they are moving between OB/OS, for possible oscillation profits.
> How do you make 70% winners and “A steady 30 to 50% annually” without predicting the market?
Several well known methods (hourly channel breakouts, volatility breakouts, range contraction/expansion breakouts, A/D bearish divergence with any number of breakout filters, opening range breakouts, etc.) would have put you short on or near the open on 2-27. None of these methods/systems “predicted” how far the market would fall.
If you have a royal flush off the initial deal in five card draw you know
you have a high probability hand. There is no way to “predict” how much
you will make or how much the other players will bet. Same thing: you know you want to take the bet (trade), but you really don’t know for sure exactly what will happen next.
OTOH, I disagree with Dustin that being short on 2-27 is pure luck. Any number of systems which would have done fine on the way up would have also put you short on 2-27. Staying short, at least into the close, was about as obvious as not folding with a royal flush.
> Anyone with half a brain will tell you that the US economy is heading for a massive downtrend.
Robert Prechter has an IQ about twice that of most people (went to Yale on an academic scholarship). One might argue that’s like having two brains ;-).
Prechter predicted “the US economy (was) heading for a massive downtrend” circa 1989.
I really like Prechter, but it just goes to show how “predictions” can bite you. Better just to trade 'em as they come.
Books over the years from doomsday predictor author Ravi Batra. If he stays around for another few decades, eventually he might be right:
“The Great Depression of 1990 : How to Survive and Prosper " &
“Surviving the Great Depression of 1990” published in 1988 and 1989
"The Downfall of Capitalism and Communism : Can Capitalism Be Saved?” published in 1990 (when Depression of 1990 didn’t hit)
"The Pooring of America : Competition and the Myth of Free Trade " published in 1994
"Great American Deception : What Politicians Won’t Tell You About Our Economy and Your Future " published in 1996
"Stock Market Crashes " published in 1999
"The Crash of the Millennium : Surviving the Coming Inflationary Depression " published in 1999
"Greenspan’s Fraud : How Two Decades of His Policies Have Undermined the Global Economy " published in 2006
NOW HE REVERSES COURSE!!! A new golden age!!
"The New Golden Age : The Coming Revolution Against Political Corruption and Economic Chaos " published in 2007
Now, does he have half or a whole brain, since he was not correct, but maybe eventually (by accident) ??? I could haVE made a lot of money by doing the reverse til now…
> just goes to show how “predictions” can bite you. Better just to trade 'em as they come.
In fairness, I should also give Prechter credit. He also predicted the latest
decline in no uncertain terms. He suggested being fully short on Feb. 21
and predicted a large sharp decline and a major trend change. He had a tight protective stop basis SPX cash at 1467.50. I’m pretty sure he’s still holding short.
