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Hello dear investors, gamblers and developers.
I´m happy to give the 9 months update on my conservative long only XIV strategy.
Currently the strategy is pausing because of too low volatility for too long time. It will stay out of the market until a significant correction happens. (defined by the algo, not me saying “yeah that´s significant”)
If one thing is certain when it comes to the markets then it´s there is always a correction at some point. So I´m patient and just wait till the good time comes. Backtest says that the longest period without trades was 25 weeks so that´s quite a while. As mentioned in the name, it´s an investment strategy, not a get rich quick scheme. The goal is to achieve target average performance around 30% p.a. with focus on risk mitigation. Key figures of the backtest are: avg. compound return 30.5% (CAGR) maximum Peak-to-Valley DD = 18.27%
So far backtest and real trading results match almost 100%. In fact real trading results are a little better than the backtest/parallel test for the same period because I assume 0.15% slippage with every trade in backtesting. So far I got almost no slippage and sometimes even positive slippage so the actual results are better. Positive slippage is possible because I have to close trades 2 minutes before market close, otherwise there can be sync problems with C2. If the close price is lower than my exit price, that´s positive slippage.
The strategy can easily be traded manually and is suitable for IRA. I broadcast signals for the next week at every friday evening after market close.
As you can see the strategy pauses at the moment. Everytime the strategy pauses, I set the fee to 0$ for every current subscriber for the duration of the pause. “No trades, no profit, no fees!”
Special offer for subscribers before the strategy is completing a 12 months track record:
Subscribe now and lock in 0$ fee for 3 months. I will take care of that on my side of the backend so you don´t have to do anything. Just subscribe before end of March and you´re qualified.
Now there we go. My strategy missed some of the insane uptrend but it also completely evaded the crash. As I said in a previous post, this is a conservative strategy with a nice expectancy of 30% p.a. The “downside” is that it sits in cash at times and most people can´t accept that.
My strategy will pick up trading next week most likely. If you´re interested in a serious long term oriented strategy, shoot me a PM. I´m giving a good deal to my first 10 subscribers because of the recent crash.
Just because you aren´t interested in a system that is build with safety in mind doesn´t mean that no one else is. If you put my system against the S&P500 then you have to take into consideration that the index can easily have a -60% bear market. When I can avoid a -95% crash in the underlying I trade with a very simple, not curve fitted long only system then this is what I call an excellent result in regards of safety.
If you protect your downside the profits will take care of themselves. This is what I live in trading and it served me very well so far.
you´re right but only if volatility is low. If vol is high, the chance of a crash in XIV/SVXY shrinks more and more (because they crashed already). That´s why my system pauses in prolonged phases of extremely low volatility just like we´ve seen recently. And I never hold positions over the weekend - yet again we see this is the real danger for vol strategies.
I structured the system with focus on risk mitigation so it delivers more stable and calm results with extremely low chance of bad suprises. In my book this means pure value for any investor´s portfolio, especially for the ones with bigger pockets.
Anyways, I get it. no one gives a s**t about security in a system until it goes bust and they wish they cared more about risk. Since outperforming the beloved S&P500 seems to be the only criteria for having a good system we´ll have to wait a couple weeks more. So lets see and continue then.
1 - You traded XIV May-Oct 2017 when VIX bouncing around 9-11 (and higher a couple days). Continued to bounce around 9-11 from Oct-Dec, and then bounced from 11-14 in late Jan and you were absent?
2 - Weekend holding doesn’t matter. You hold it overnight, which is when it got clobbered From Feb 5-Feb 6.
3 - On Feb 5, XIV closed at $99 and the VIX ended the day at 37. The next morning XIV was down 90%. Doesn’t matter how high or low volatility is, this thing can implode at a moments notice.
Please stop begging for subscribers and just perform.
1 - You don´t know the exact strategy logic so how can you expect to understand the trading behavior? As I stated in my first post
This wasn´t quite the situation in May17 according to the algo. It´s not just watching volatility but also time…
2 - True, I mixed that up, it was overnight. But the drop started during the day so my system would´ve been stopped out that monday anyways before the overnight drop. It´s virtually impossible that my system suffers sudden and catastrophic losses due to its structure.
3 - True, XIV and SVXY can implode anytime. But as you can see my system doesn´t. It´s structured to be resilient under any circumstance.
I actually don´t care what you think about me or my system because you post 100% negative statements in any topic.
Please get a life and let traders do their job. Asking critical questions is fine but bitching around is not fine.
