Bitcoin/Crypto Down Over 70%. Time to Buy? Maybe

Who knows what will happen, but I saw that Bitcoin is currently down over 70% for the last year. So, I wanted to see how it has done historically when that happens.


video on calculation method


Excellent, thank you

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Your study is interesting but it does not show the max drawdown after buying at the 70% drawdown level and holding for x days.

In my opinion bitcoin buyers should not rely on this data alone but should wait for confirmation before pulling the trigger (breakout of a down trendline or a resistance line, moving average crossover to the upside, higher highs and higher lows, positive MACD, etc…).

This is still a good study. :+1:

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Bitcoin will still have to drop about 39% from its current price to match its worst historical drawdown of about 85%. Of course, it could always set a new record….

This definitely isn’t a trend following trade yet or anything. But I think enough of my own portfolio is already tied to trend following. So I think it is worth the risk for me.

The issue with buying after this dip is that everyone thinks they’re in on it so if it ever does recover again it will likely take much longer imo.

I think I understand what you are saying. I do think bitcoin is actually becoming more stable in terms of percentage changes overtime. It never feels like it but as this log chart shows it certainly is becoming more stable. That could of course reverse.

I feel Bcoin can hit 9K. Just my opinion.

I agree that is 100% possible. That being said I think picking a moving average such as the 100, 200, or 200+ and holding when it is above and exiting when it is below isn’t a terrible approach. If it does go to 9000 it will have to cross below all of those first. Of course, this introduces the chance of whipsaw, but I would rather have that than blindly holding bitcoin which could crash by a security risk being discovered or simple market share loss.

Even when you get lucky and do well like this investment, it can be really hard to not have regret for not investing more. Of course, I may have regret later that I didn’t do less.