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My only real competitor was PatternZ, and when I couldn’t find it on the Grid today, I feared the worst. Sure enough, one of the highest flying systems with only winning months has taken a nosedive and after posting 20 losing trades in a row (an impressive feat by itself) it accomplished a 100% drawdown.
I don’t wish such a fate on any vendor, but events like this makes me wonder, just how safe can any system
be if after month and month of positive results, suddenly it stopped working? What is even more surprising that it wasn’t just one over leveraged bad trade that took PatternZ down, but a rather long series of smaller losing trades.
I just hope he didn’t bring lots of real money subscribers down with him. I was actually thinking of subscribing myself, but I guess the old adage is as always true: past performances are not guarantee of future results…
Surely it was obvious that it was going to blow up. How? Because making 225% in one month trading futures is only possible by running too much risk. No intelligent person should think that is viable.
“The number of consecutive losses is irreverent .”
Tell it to the PatternZ subscribers who just had a 100% drawdown. But you might be right because it is the 21st consecutive loss that really counts making it a -868% cumulative return…
Sure, you are right. Except that the 20 losses of PatternZ obviously weren’t small losses. The question is just, when exactly the music stops, how deep the account has to be in the red before C2 calls it game over?
20 Consecutive losses does not mean anything. What matters most is money management. As you can see from the normalized graph below, the strategy is actually doing just fine but the risk management destroyed the performance presumably because he was trying to attract subscribers with an eye-popping but unrealistic CAGR. One way to mitigate this is to look for systems that are TOS certified and hope the manager is not suicidal with his own money. .
are you serious? you put on 16 lots overnight and someone would have needed over 100k (and with most brokers much more) to even hold for 3 days. you get lucky and it goes your way and you honestly think anyone will even pay attention to you anymore? the fact that you would even have an idea to come on the forums and say something like this should tell everyone you have no clue.
and EVEN if they did have enough money in their accounts for the overnight margin risk. the draw down intra trade was that in which you would have been margin ed out and taken out with almost nothing left it your account before it finally turned around and made money. You do realize people are putting their REAL money into this thing? Please find another career. I hate to even make posts like this but there were people following you a LONG time after they should have been given the risk and clear recklessness involved.
I don’t think the return track record for this system is realistic. This system start out with an initial capital amount of $5000 and yet C2 allow the maximum drawdown to reach a negative $10,651 (-$10,651) for a return of minus 313% (-313%). In real life any time the value of margin equity reach zero a broker will liquidate all holdings instead of allowing it to cross into negative value. This practice is called a margin call. This also happen to another system here: https://www.collective2.com/details/95828240 Notice that this system have a year to date return of negative 164.7%. How can you lose more than what you have which in this case is 64.7% over 100% of your capital?
it would not even get to 0. if he is putting on 16 contracts in the russell for example its 8000 just to even put ont he trade. If the account falls below 8000 (including commissions) they pull you out of the trade. To answer your question, C2 allows this because i suppose someone could be auto scaling him only 10% which is foolish and impossible for anyone to follow and feel confident in but i guess it is a theoretic possibility. Also, it can go negative because they have to show the action results but i agree once it hits the margin call they should pull you out of the trade and make you reset your counter with a FRESH record and still show your old record so people can see your past history. But the bigger issue is that i still see people live trading the strategy in the link you provided and if they are silly enough to do that they must not care about their money very much so i dont feel bad for them.
Re https://www.collective2.com/details/95828240
I traded this system for a while so can add some info. 1) the owner doesn’t trade the system with real money, 2) although it is not easily visible, he uses at least 200% leverage, in some periods it was even more. So yes, in real life he would have received a margin call a while ago and the position would be (partially) liquidated but as this is only a model account, the losses can mount.
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