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I have been thinking about these strategies a lot. I have posted links in order of oldest to youngest. They all have or were very Tqqq and sqqq heavy. All three have started with fantastic equity curves. I find the newer ones very enticing but worry they will have the same problems as the older strategy in the long term.
Am I right to be worried?
Do the leaders have any input on why they think they are different?
What are your thoughts as a fellow subscriber or potential subscriber?
I like that Ai system 1st. and TQQQSQQQ(my system) next. Looking forward after tweaking a few things I’m hoping things will look even brighter in the future. But one can never tell.
The last few months TQQQ was constantly going up. So it’s hard to say if the super returns of AI TQQQ SQQQ was because of an edge the system has or just by chance.
Though this month there was a big pullback in TQQQ and the system is down only 0.5% which is very good.
It’s really hard to tell because the system started on Mar 26th so it missed the big Covid related drop in the markets.
100% agree with you. Certainly done a fantastic job this month. Yet again a strategy that trades frequently I think can still get lucky in a period like that. Just still to early to tell in my opinion. Either way though good job so far.
For example, tech savvy also missed several smaller pullbacks but didn’t hold up as well during big ones.
Again not trying to slam anyone, TQQQSQQQ did a great job on the initial corona virus downturn. This recent pullback not quite as well. If you could only avoid one TQQQSQQQ definitely picked the right one in my opinion. My point is just that so many downturns and pullbacks are so different.
For a stretch maybe 3 months, I think TQQQSQQQ was the hottest system. At the time I had discovered a fantastic trading strategy that was off the chain. It at some point simmered off so I had to adapt.
Plus at the time, I had a pretty amazing drawdown, I think it was less than 9%. So the combo of system indicator losing its steam and trying to maintain this ultra tiny drawdown was on my mind. Now that dd. Is a more traditional figure, I can loosen it up a bit.
You are doing great. I don’t mean to come off as attacking. Rather just saying that it is hard for a system to not lose its edge eventually. So I am always asking when will the hottest system like AI TQQQ lose its edge or will it ever etc.
Hi all,
Strategy creator of AI TQQQ here. Want to add, AI TQQQ is a swing system. It’s been pointed out that this won’t do well during highly volatile periods with heavy whip-saw. In times like this, it cannot react fast enough as it’s not a daytrading system (though it will make daytrades at times, due to stops). One example is today (9/25/2020). System picked SQQQ for this day, and was wrong. TQQQ went up today, and stop for SQQQ wasn’t hit. This is an extremely volatile system, and in backtests during volatile periods like the covid crash, system is also volatile (down huge one day, up huge next day, etc). But overall, during the covid crash, the system did well in backtesting. Unfortunately I didn’t start system before covid crash.
Sounds like you are reasonable about expectations which is a plus in my opinion.
Do you have an expectation of how bad you expect drawdowns to be?
From backtests max drawdown was 35% (covid crash, TQQQ drawdown was 70%). But because that was an in-sample backtest, I would say slightly higher is possible, like 35-45%. I’ve reduced the aggressiveness of position sizes when going short to try and reduce the max drawdowns going forward.
First, I want to say that I think @QuantTiger @ETFCapital seem to still be doing good work. My point is not to attack them or their strategies. I think their strategies are better than most. However, things don’t always go smoothly for any of us.
My point is this:
Personally, I will make a statement that I will no longer be monitoring my systems as strictly as I was before. I have been traveling extensively
as I have retired early in my 40s and I am losing interest in being so vigilant. I don’t really have to explain this as we truly don’t know every leader’s commitment level. Next, I predict 99% of all systems will not be here in 7 years, meaning that there really is no way to look stunning through a couple of bear markets. Looking back and being honest, eventually everyone will either be hit with a 30-70% Drawdown and or have lackluster performances. I believe that I can churn out 60-80% yearly returns over 20 years but I also know my Drawdowns will be around 50%. If I continue here, this will be my new MO.
Also want to add that all the seemingly great traders will lose subs giving way to the New Hott System, as this is the way most humans are wired. Until subs change or stop dreaming of on going 200% returns with 5% drawdowns this will continue. But on the other hand if there is a shift in thinking and subs say, “hey, I don’t mind 50% a year and I have great big balls to handle 50% drawdowns” then things might change.
How true.
By the way, only two C2 trading systems with a 3 year record or more managed to return over 50% per year with a 25% drawdown or less, yours (Patience is a Virtue) and the “Dow M” system, so congratulations.
