I’ve seen trading strategies work for decades then collapse overnight
Martingale systems you mean?
Those don’t usually make it a decade. But yes those would certainly be capable of having fantastic returns minimal drawdown then sudden collapses.
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It depends, with enough trading capital and a slow martingale the system can last quite a while before returning to zero, or below zero.
Anyway, nice talking with you, I need to return to my charts now, have a good one.
Even taking cost of leverage into account? Currently the cost is high due to the high interest rates to go on margin.
Yes it is true, buying bonds on leverage can be costly, that’s why this approach is only suitable for traders looking to take advantage of short term movements in the price of a bond, as some brokers can offer up to 10 to 1 leverage.
Some systems can also lose money very very very slowly, and bleed you to death.
These seemingly “safe” systems are hard to detect because their leverage is small, and they usually stay under the “radar” for a long, long time,
Until it’s too late and you realize that their trading logic (assuming there is one in the first place) does not work.
Yes a frequent problem with systems that have stops too tight.
Sure, tight stops can bankrupt even perfectly good systems, but most of the time the slow losing strategies I mentioned fail because they heavily depend on specific market conditions.
More often than not, they are long only and if the market becomes bearish they get crushed, sometimes for an extended period of time.
Or the strategy depends on some financial event that fails to materialize.
Wait I thought you were talking about a slow bleed - not crushed and losing 50 million in one day. 
You can have both scenarios, a slow bleed followed by a sudden huge loss (a flash crash, a tsunami in Japan or whatever) which could not have been anticipated/predicted, by definition…
After careful review we can clearly see that your 15 top IRA friendly systems have very reasonable drawdows, so further studies do not seem necessary at this point.
Again, good study overall, thank you.
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