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@Daniil, as I mentioned before I was referring to your strategy of course (the one you are currently have in C2). I assumed you performed backtesting on your strategy before you started the strategy is that not correct?
So I was just asking if you did backtesting on your strategy and if you did were the backtested results comparable to the forward tested results?
Also what would your analysis of your strategy be from your evaluation method you just described?
In other words can you evaluate the strategy “Wait4Trade Day Trading”?
I can evaluate my strategy next week, but it is matched to description, and it’s not so interesting.
There is no stable equity result in my strategy. I can’t it recommend. It has expanded sinusoid. I added more instruments: 24 in total.
This will increase the trades frequency and reduce the probability of a multi-day loss series.
Some words about trades entries quality:
To understand have you advantage in the market entries or not, it is correct to compare own results with random entries in nearly same conditions. Doesn’t matter is it discretional or algorithmic trading it is necessary to help avoid illusion that you have advantage.
My entry conditions:
Position open time on an average 23:00 - 3:00 PT
Stop loss 10 ticks
Target 100-150 ticks or exit at 21:30 PT
Strategy with random entries:
Position open time 0:00 PT
Stop loss 10 ticks
Target 100 ticks or exit at 21:30 PT
Percent profitable of strategy with random entries is 16.90%.
My result is 30%.
And so either we have too little trade history or our team software makes it possible to get +14% to win rate in comparison with random entries.
We can say definitely only after 1000 trades.
Now I concentrate on getting stable short sinusoid to stable equity result for my strategy.
Yes…I was just curious about the assessment of your strategy using this technique. So at least a minimum of 1000 trades is required for any day trading system to be assessed using this technique?
The market is predominantly efficient; Therefore, it is necessary to apply probability theory to any strategies.
So, you need a lot of outcomes (trades) for an objective evaluation.
One of the value of Collective2 that you can make sure of all this just by looking at the strategy grid.
That I totally agree…since the markets change constantly its pretty hard to maintain a consistently good track record unless the strategy is very robust or just knowing when to scale down.
For more analysis check this guy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wL6vg727v8U He is SG Trader trading live on youtube, I am following him. He does not give for free his strategy but all trades live and kind of cool. He also does arbitrage trading.
My build is that C2 should show leverage adjusted results as the primary indicator. Some charts may look impressive, but upon closer inspection many of these systems are utilizing leverage (rather than alpha) for performance
They have added the ability toclick on the leverage stat next to the charts and have a graph show of the leverage used overtime which I find very handy
I think a simple value of max leverage is not enough. Better to know the maximum leverage for one trade.
For example, my strategy:
I traded intraday for 12 FOREX pairs; I used a 5 step lot rising: starting lot is 1, max - 5 for one trade. In leverage, it is 1 and 5 for $10,000.
But I can open five trades at once, so the leverage can be 25, I have short stops and profit probability of each trade is independent of one another.
Is it the same as one trade with 25 leverage without stop order?
More important to know: How lot can I lose on one trade and what is probabilities of loss series.
The Spirit of Nicolas Darvas. Must be a Top 10 on C2 LeaderBoard.
C2 rank is wrong. C2 rank tops traders are mostly term, high leveraged traders that are only looking for commisions and have high probability of blowing up the account in a few months/years
I agree, this is one of the top strategies by stability.
There are only two strategies with over 1,000 trades and with acceptable performance.
And both of them don’t have any subscribers.
This primarily shows a lack of literacy in the trading strategies analysis.
This thread created to fix this
Yes, it’s not so simple, but if the investor is not ready to conduct a detailed analysis, then he will lose money in the long term.
The idea of Collective2 is great, better to manage own funds yourself than give them in the funds, but evaluation criteria are not good yet. So it should be done by yourself.
This is an objective reality. In a term period of 1,000 trades, best strategies look like this.
Investor should compile strategies portfolio and rely on the Law of large numbers.
It’s hard to say how many trades are enough. I am inclined that not less than 500, better >1,000.
And these two strategies deserve to be in the portfolio.
I draw conclusions from the Autotrade data on Collective2 and there are up to 10 auto followers on some trades only.
I prefer not discussing anything in this thread outside Collective2 at all, since it is not verifiable.
So stick to buy and hold and get a worst r/r. Dont you know most people dont even aproach to SPX return or SPX R/R those system are better. You must a novice or someone that have multiples accts
You’re right. I am not a specialist in stocks; I am an expert in risk assessment.
However, only these two strategies have positive results after 1,000 trades.
Yes, after analyzing, we see that these strategies are based on long trades without stops and which means they are more risky than they seem. But you’ll high probability be making a profit until the next global collapse.
Yes, it will be right. I’ll do it soon.
It turns out that we can’t know a number of subscribers?
