is anyone looking for a top in ES about 2620 for the year??
I’m not looking for the top, I’m waiting for it. As Jesse Livermore said “sell on the way down”. 
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OP,I have two questions for you:
1.How much you can make in terms of % by picking a top?
2.Are you able to determine a trend?
Today es hit 2620.5 and reversed. This could be the high for the year. I make $$ by trading the 30 other futures.
Looks now like ES 2620 was maybe just a bump in the road on the way to higher highs. Thanksgiving to Christmas is historically one of the best stretches for stock market gains, and this year Black Friday/Cyber Monday have outperformed last year by over 15%. Are you willing to bet against the trend?
Now ES hit 2027.
Does that mean 2026 top on ES is broken or the top is still valid?
If you shorted at 2026, where do you set your stop?
Now ES hit 2634.25.
If you shorted at 2626, do you still hold your short?
If you did not short, what is the benefit of picking a top?
Picking tops and bottoms is a hit and miss technique. If you manage the trade properly you can make money but historically its not much better than 50/50 at picking tops and bottoms
It is not 50/50.
ES has been up 400+ points this year.
While the top is only one point.You need to hit one point out of 400+ points. So what is the probability of hitting the top?
And how much you can make if you do hit the top?
Now consider you ride a trend. Out of 400+ points, from any one point you begin to long,you make money.
And you could make much more money than trying to pick the top.
Golder, I said its NOT MUCH better than 50/50…lol. Picking tops/bottoms is a losing technique.
