I have suggested this in the past and now think the time is right to start this forum. Since we are all traders here I think it might be interesting to start a discussion on Market Direction. Here is my observation on todays short term stock market and welcome all pertaining discussion. When I look at a chart of the SP-500 I believe I can see a pretty strong trend channel starting on 6-25 going all the way to 70-20. With the strong down day on 7-20 it takes the chart to the bottom of the channel. I also see a 50 day moving average of volume is down since 6-25 and a 10 linear regression on volume down. A big spike on volume on 7-20 makes me think it is a strong down move. With a strong up trend for the last 30 days on deteriating volume and a strong down day on 7-20 with a big volume uptick. Where are we going from here?
When you say "market direction", you are somehow assuming that all here trade equities…
I doubt that those trading forex or the lunatic fringe trading corn (me) think that stock market discussions constitute "market direction" any more than the price of roses at Home Depot.
Or I could be totally wrong.
Hans.
It seems to me that he’s made no assumption as to which market. Therefore, I will answer with specificity to the market that I happen to be watching this very moment:
It will go up, make a downward corrective, go sideways for a bit during a three to seven day period of consolidation, and then touch its original top. Beyond that, I won’t know until I see the breadth and depth of movement and consolidation.
As I stated in my post I was talking about the sp-500. I am just trying to start some constructive interaction here on C2. We could all gain if we would pool our resources and kick this thing around a little bit.
"Since we are all traders here I think it might be interesting to start a discussion on Market Direction. Here is my observation on todays short term stock market and welcome all pertaining discussion."
Your post is about wanting to start a discussion on market direction (no particular market). You then follow it up with your observation, as it pertains to the S&P 500, leaving room for other observations to be about any market in general. Rather than being disingenuous about what you said, take the time to understand what it is you wrote.
But since you, unlike him, didn’t specify the market you were talking about, you were actually saying nothing, not even an observation.
Why spoil an attempt for a constructive discussion? Is it really so terrible that he specified the market not in his first sentence but in his second sentence? Or is your problem that he asked a question instead of giving the answer?
" Market Direction? "
There is a correction set up to take place now, but since buyers or traders of stock like to artificially hold it up as long as possible, anything could happen. Before the bubble busted it was held up by air for about 6 months with no real reason.
The longer it is held up by air, the more spectacular the blow up…
Interesting to note on todays market. While the sp-500 was up with a hollow candle, SPY was up slightly less with a solid candle.
> While the sp-500 was up with a hollow candle, SPY was up slightly less with a solid candle.
Either an error or an oddity from the Amex opening rules. The actual intraday open is 153.95, but the daily chart shows 154.28. The actual
intraday data for the open would bring the SPY and SPX dailies into sync
pattern wise.
"Why spoil an attempt for a constructive discussion?"
Clarifying the discussion isn’t akin to spoiling it. You are free to post about the subject or topic at hand, even if his post was ambiguous.
"Is it really so terrible that he specified the market not in his first sentence but in his second sentence?"
No. Do you think it should be terrible?
"Or is your problem that he asked a question instead of giving the answer?"
No. Do you think it should be a problem?
Any idea, how long this correction will go on? My guess (or should I say, my wish) would be till end of September when the fall equinox sets in…
" My guess (or should I say, my wish) would be till end of September when the fall equinox sets in…"
Why the wish?
Don’t know how long, can see corrections coming but can’t really predict followthrough in stock market. Know when it should happen but stocks have too many happy people making money, oblivious to reality, or maybe just buying and holding for retirement.
Another gentleman from North America, welcome! Join the party!
>Why the wish?
Because of course, I’m short stocks, 100% for the past 2 1/2 weeks. Patience pays, but only if you have the money to withstand the DDs or use it to hedge with options, I guess…
>Another gentleman from North America, welcome! Join the party!
Thanks. I prefer NA. I suppose I could live in London, UK, but not really fond of the class society…Also, no stock market can match the NA market in breadth, depth and volume…
For what it is worth. I have some what I call long term signals. I trade my 401 and IRA in. They are using a 10 day horizon. They all signaled long starting from Friday tell today. Clearly over bought and over sold indicators. Maybe we are due for a short term bounce?
"Another gentleman from North America, welcome! Join the party! "
Thanks for pointing this out. That immediately raised the suspicion that Howard Roark is another Pal fantasy. There can be no doubt after reading his My Analyst Page:
Howard Roark = Neil Boyd = Brian Milloy = Palsun Anand.
Howard Roark = Ayn Rand’s famous architect character.
Howard Roark built many buildings, but none of them came
crashing down like you know who’s fourteen you know whats.
FWIW, I think “Mr. Roark” may be a good contrary indicator.
Breadth is oversold, the “correction” isn’t even a down week
yet in the NDX, nightly news shows in the US warned “look
out” this week (not the euphoria usually seen at a top, indeed
more likely a trap for rubes like Roark), and even the weaker
SPY is still holding in what may be a consolidation pattern
above the previous consolidation.
A break of today’s lows on a downward breadth acceleration
would turn me more bearish however.
FWIW, “wish”, “hope”, etc. are four letter words for traders.
“We have two kinds of forecasters: those who can’t and those who don’t know they can’t.” John Kenneth Galbraith
"FWIW, ‘wish’, ‘hope’, etc. are four letter words for traders." Sam Cook
Absolutely agree, Sam!!
Watch the S&P 500 begin a catapult run back near its highs, by the end of this week or Wed of next week. After that, look for early downside consolidation followed by narrow-range trading. That’s as far as I can see for the time being.
Guess who said this: " The average man doesnt wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesnt even wish to have to think."
