Market Timing

I am a new member. Without having looked through each individual system, I do not see much in the way of market timing signals for trading ETF’s and Index Funds, both of which are now also available as double-beta/inverse double beta. Do you have any signals for these? Any plans to start a category for these? Thank you very much!

Steven -

Do you mean double beta as in proFunds/Rydex/etc. or do you mean an ETF like instrument? I had not heard about this, if so.

Anyway, it makes little difference. SPYders, S&P Futures, whatever tend to move rather similarly. Arbitrageurs will suck out the difference if it gets too great, on the same underlying instrument.

If you find a system that is profitable on the S&P futures (emini or whatever), it is likely about as profitable on the SPYDers. Frankly, SUCCESSFUL market timers that are good at short term timing tend to work on most other American indexes. Some will argue against this, but if they are not among the successful advisors, their arguments have little merit to me. I find that if a good system said to be Long the @ESU6 from 10:30am to Noon (EST), that trading the DJ or Nasdaq tended to do relatively the same.

Focus on finding a system you like and don’t wory too much whether he does ETFs.

Hi Ross - thanks for the reply. Yes, I mean Rydex/Profunds/Direxion funds, but also Profunds recently introduced the first inverse, double-beta, and inverse double-beta ETF’s benchmarked to 4 of the major American indices. See for more info. I have not actually traded these new ETF’s yet because volume is still quite small ( generally 100K to 250K ).

Thanks for your suggestion - I have never traded futures ( yet :sunglasses: and don’t really know much about them, but I will take a look at some of the futures systems and try to see how well they correlate. There are several sites which track market timers and their signals ( TimerTrac, ThetaResearch, Futures Truth, etc ). Seems to be getting quite popular, so I was just a bit surprised that C2 did not have a category for this. Maybe in the future!


Interesting instruments. The expense ratio for all is a tad on the high side near 1% - it would pay to trade a smaller quantity of the double "ultra", which at least appears to cut that in half … I see they were just floated in mid July. The volume is nice, if the values are trustworthy…

For longs these would likely be a bit better for lower leverage trader, as futures tend to lose value as they approach expiration.

I still kind of prefer the futures contracts though