"Futures Cat "did well in its first month, up 50% on 10% DD.
I lower my subscription price from $200 to $100 for this month.
Next month it will be $200.
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The strategy is discretionary
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Will try to keep drawdown below 11%
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Every trade has a stop, sometimes it is hard stop, sometimes when I monitor market, I have mental stops.
Why would someone want to subscribe at $100 knowing they will be paying double the next month?
A 3 months strategy is worth more than a 2 months strategy, especially when it is a top performance strategy.
There are not many subscribers at this time, because people want to see how the strategy performs in longer time.
But a longer time strategy costs more.
Well, it’s possible that there are not as many subscribers because you have another 18 strategies that are either private or not suported anymore.
What does this strategy do better than the other 18 strategies?
Other traders have only 1-2 strategies since years (and TOS).
It is ignorant that some people think a developer should have same trading skill for all his life.So if he did bad in the past, he will did bad in the future.
No. Developers improve everyday.The improvement could cause a losing game to become a winning game for them in a couple of months or a couple of weeks.Because there are new discoveries on market behavior for them to improve everyday.
For me, I only came into trading commodities for two months, but I have achieved so great an improvement that I now could do better than most traders trading commodities for tens of years.Even in the past week I got more improvement than most traders could achieve in a couple of years.
For many subscribers, they are willing to stick to a strategy that keep losing their money since they join that strategy, rather than to join a new one that keep making money for its subscribers.
All subscribers should ask themselves, did this strategy I had joined make money for me?
Always check a strategy how it performs AFTER its first subscriber.
Here I will tell you a couple of facts.
Commodities are easier to trade than equities.
That is an important factor behind my recent improvement.
Commodities are more technical in nature, so it is easier to predict commodities than to predict equities.
Commodities have much narrower daily trading range than equities,so if you exit when market is against you, you will have a much smaller loss than otherwise for equities.
Commodities offer a lot of more trading choices.
Equities trade in syn, so when you trade equities, you actually trade one instrument.
While commodities offer you 5 - 10 times more instruments.
So if you only trade equities and you see an opportunities with 60% winning probability, you have to take it because you have no other choices and if you don’t trade this opportunity, you may have to wait a couple of days before you find a better opportunity.
When you also trade commodities, with much more choices, you could pick up an opportunity with the highest winning probability among all instruments,so the winning probability of your trading entries could be raised from 60% to 80%.
That was what actually happened for my strategy" Futures Cat".
Also it is easier to achieve consistent performance in commodities trading than in equities trading, because equities market behavior changes every a couple months, but for commodities, market behavior doesn’t change so much overtime.
Now what happened to a couple of resets that I had before this strategy" Futures Cat"?
Because I was new to commodities and I paid learning cost.
Commodities have supply and demand. COT data can be really useful.
And there is certain level, when one can see price as a bargain. Eg, wheat if around 350 or so, that is super swing long entry. Also, grains depend heavy on weather, USDA reports, world production…
But, I don’t agree index trading is not technical. Problem is that ES is often flat or in small range, that happens lot of time lately. But, on trend days, it is making nice moves.
I would say that on commodities trading one can use trend following methods, but on index most of time S/R levels are really good to use.
Trading equities is different story. Since they move only on earnings or big news, and most of them have lower daily range. But, if one knows how to find good stock, move can be huge.
One thing I dislike about your choice is miniSilver and miniGold since their volume is super low, and I think it would be impossible to replicate. On mini CL there is so so volume, but follows normal CL contract decently.
For example, GLYC (Glycomimetics, last 2 days, and days before that).
Average volume is around 0.6 M stocks, last 2 days, well above 25 M.
Forgot to add, good work on Futures Cat, and hope you maintain level of performance in future.
Thanks for your discussion.
Yes, my method is to follow trend, I never trade against a trend.
Maybe that was why I did better in commodities trading than in equities trading.
As for mini contracts, I didn’t mean to scalp,so volume is not so important. And at that point, I already had a couple of losing trades.So to keep drawdown lower, I lowered my leverage. But when my equity is near all time high, standard contracts are usually used. And as my total balance continues growing, mini contracts should not be used anymore in the near future. They were only used when I was concerned my max DD could break its max high.Note that I entered one mini contract at first trade when situation was not so certain. And after I saw market goes my way and my first position was winning, I added second mini at a higher price. This is more cautious than just entering standard contract at the first trade.
Last summer was horrible for trend strategies in ES and other index futures.
Last few months also, just too much days with flat movement.
Agree that commodities, like CL; GC; maybe Silver, Natural Gas (very volatile) are much better for trend strategies.
Russell 2000 is returning to CME on July 10th; and it has bigger range comparing to ES; that should be very popular. Since many people abandoned ICE when they increased data fee.
Agree with mini contract. I trade them in my account, when looking for lower risk. Better to use 2 mini CL than one normal. It can provide better entry. And lower risk.
I just want to explain a little how I choose my trades on that evening when bad news came out.
There may be people who think I was just lucky gambling big and won overnight, when most other traders were losing.
No. I didn’t gamble.
I had NQ long position when the bad news came out, and I immediately sold NQ and added silver long position.
I could short index but that seemed a little gambling to me, because I could not estimate how market would react the news and how deep the equity market could go down. So I felt shorting index was not the best option.
For Gold and Silver, they were already on an up trend before the bad news. So If nothing happened on that evening, Gold and Silver would be most likely to go up the next day on their own trend. So the long positions on Gold and Silver would be most certain to win the next day, regardless of how equity market do. If equity market goes down big the next day, Gold and Silver would go up big.If equity market goes up the next day, Gold and Silver would go up smaller. So this was a win-win situation.Apparently longing Gold and Silver were much better option than shorting index.This is how trading commodities could offer more better choices than solely equity trading.
I want to clear up on my subscription price.
If you join today, you pay $100.On the next charge day, which is June 21,2017, you will pay $200, if you want to renew your subscription.
I will raise my price on June 1,2017, but that price will only affect you on your next charge day.
So if you subscribe on May 30.2017, you will only need to pay $100 ,until when your first month subscription expires on June 30, 2017, and you decide to renew your subscription, then you need to pay $200 on June 30.2017.
Interesting thing - all your archived futures strategies lasted not more then 2 months. Your Futures Cat currently goes approximately as your previous Indices Futures. That one was abandoned in ~2 months after 18% drop.
One thing I learned at C2, when vendors come out with a new strategy without TOS, especially after many failed attempts on private system, and that strategy does well in the first month and the vendor starts to promote it heavily based on that short history, the vendor probably himself thinks it was just based on luck so now he tries to milk it before the luck runs out.
KarlA,your logic is erroneous。
Who the vendors do not promote their new strategies?
I don’t even bother to put my strategy on “featured strategies”.
Based on your logic, all the strategies that have been listed on " featured strategies", are there because their vendors themselves have no trust on their own strategies, they think their strategies are just based on luck, and try to milk them before the luck run out.
Ha-ha. You are that guy (NYYT, he owns Emini Chaser) who was disappointed because of nobody paid him for one month of good trading? So much disappointed that even quit trading in drawdown.
UPDATE Saved full @wmwmw post here. He already deleted that he is @NYYT also.
KarlA,your logic is erroneous。
Who the vendors do not promote their new strategies?
I don’t even bother to put my strategy on “featured strategies”.
Based on your logic, all the strategies that have been listed on " featured strategies", are there because their vendors themselves have no trust on their own strategies, they think their strategies are just based on luck, and try to milk them before the luck run out.And KarlA, you are the one who tried many of my strategies without paying. If you think my strategies are purely based on luck, why you autotraded them as long as they were free?
You subscribed my “Emini Chaser” and autotraded it on free trial and unsubscribed right after free trial expires.
Within the latest 3 months you also autotraded two of my other strategies as they were free, and stayed with them even I stopped trading them. If you thought my strategies were so worthless, why you aotutraded almost all of them? Especially all my 3 strategies you autotraded had shorter time than “Futures Cat” and not as good performance as “Futures Cat”.
I bet if “Futures Cat” offer free trial, you will be the first to subscribe to it and autotrade it, as you were the first to autotrade 2 of my free strategies and the second to autotrade my “Emini Chaser”.
Wow…oops, it looks like the cat is now out of the bag (accidentally). Hmm…apparently too many folks (developers) on C2 with multiple identities on here.
I guess the power of “Gmail” (among others providing unlimited email accounts) is allowing folks to do such things and you not knowing who is really who on here. I suggest Matthew Klein could somehow consolidate and sync all systems from the SAME developer based on a common SSN (at least for those in the US), regardless of one’s possible varying profile names and/or different email addresses. Since all US-based developers have to complete a W-9 (with a SSN) for tax reporting purposes in order for C2 to distribute payments to them from subscriber fees, I think this is something that is doable (all systems with a common SSN under one “developer identity” — irrespective of the developer’s “name” or email address being used to create a profile).
And they are complaining on the subs for free rides. Ha-ha
What is very telling and now very suspicious is that if you recalled it was @NYTT (Wang) who first brought the forum’s attention to Futures Cat and two other systems (Pour Homme and SF812), as if they were all random systems from some other developer. It appears now that all these systems (and I suspect many others on C2) are all from this same “Wang” fellow.
FYI - just look at this (after he gave up on Emini Chaser and recommended those other three systems supposedly from other developers):
Pour Homme was options trading as I remember. With crazy profits and no DD. Not him probably.
But SF812 run by FutureSpecialist can be his strategy.
That thinking is not ignorant, it’s just a legit question.
I prefer to invest my money in a system that has already worked well before,
rather than in one that is still in developement.
And of course a developer who believes in its own system (TOS) is preferable.