We are not a flashy system. Our objective is to provide solid risk adjusted returns regardless of the market. Meaning, regardless of how Apple trades we believe we have proven we can make money. I don’t think that can be said of our main competition. If you believe Apple will continue to rise indefinitely and the last few weeks were a short rest then I would agree, have a look at our competition. But my question would be, why pay for a system? Why not just go buy the stock and hold it in large size? It’s likely that you are looking for a system because you are unsure whether Apple will rise or fall. If that scenario fits your thoughts why wouldn’t you look for a system that performs consistently regardless of where Apple is trading? I urge you to compare not just absolute returns but risk and drawdowns for our main competitor and our system. I think you will find that they have struggled when Apple has struggled. They have developed a system that has a much higher correlation to Apple stock. We have lower drawdowns and provide the ability to leverage up to your comfort level. Consider these thoughts as you make your choice. Two very different approaches to the same stock.
I will lay out an example to support my views expressed above. Reviewing US Stock Trader’s performance year to date they are up 11.9% as of today. We are up 8.5% in our Simple Swing system as of today. Seems US Stock Trader won that comparison? Unfortunately for them, not that easy, they are far more volatile and correlated to Apple. So lets run a more meaningful comparison. If we look at returns compared to drawdowns year to date you get the following:
US Stock Trader appears to have reached a high of 81,054 on 2/24/15 and a recent low of 71,347 on 8/24. That is a drawdown of 11.98%.
The Simple Swing system has a drawdown of 7.1% year to date. If you leveraged Simple Swing up to meet US Stock Trader’s drawdown (assuming you are comfortable with a drawdown of 11.98%) then you would have a year to date return of 14.34%. It is clear that Simple Swing performs better when you take risk into account. Looking only at returns is a misleading way to compare systems.
One last point, these comparisons do not take into account that Simple Swing and US Stock Trader have the same fees but different balances on C2. US Stock Trader has a balance of over 70k while Simple Swing has a balance of nearly 30k. This monthly charge hits our system over twice as hard when it comes to how C2 reports these numbers as a % of the posted balance. Even with that in mind we are outperforming our competitor. C2 has to report this number its just a matter of hitting each system by that % amount on a monthly basis. Clearly it hits Simple Swing over twice as hard and we are still outperforming.
Keep these points in mind as you review our system against the competition. Feel free to reach out with any questions.
I want to thank the subscribers who have taken the time to write reviews for us recently. Specifically, thank you for taking the time to look not just at return numbers but also reviewing the risk and drawdowns. These are important points that I am happy to see subscribers look into.
An interesting week for our competition. Looking at the trade summary it appears that they made a fundamental change to the strategy. They have begun to hold shorts overnight which doesn’t appear to have happened in the history of their system. Was this a response to my points above, driven by the managers views on where Apple is headed or something else? I can’t be sure but what I can say is that it’s difficult to rely on past results as any kind of measure if the system just fundamentally changed. What would have the excellent performance of a couple years ago have looked like? What other changes have been made that are less obvious? A lot of questions . . .
What I can say is that we offer better risk adjusted returns that for years have done well regardless of Apple’s direction. We are less correlated to Apple stock and offer less risk regardless of market conditions. What our competitor now offers is unclear as it’s not the same system it was several weeks ago let alone a couple years ago. We continue to offer the same system that we have, we do not and will not make changes to a system that has proven to be stable throughout cycles. We are totally transparent, we do not make changes behind the scenes. We are not reoptimizing the system and we are not curve fitting. Our system is the same exact system it has been which enables you to review our performance and get an idea of our approach. Our competitor does not offer that and we’re not sure exactly what they do offer. This appears to be a new system operating under the old name.
In an effort to give subscribers a long term trial with exceptionally low fees Simple Swing will be lowering fees for the remainder of 2015. We are reducing the subscription cost from $99 to $49!
I want to thank all our subscribers for a great 2015 and wish everyone the best in 2016.
Simple Swing had a great year and I am pleased to say that our strategy lived up to my earlier claims that it would make money regardless of the direction of AAPL. Our competition struggled finishing the year as did AAPL and we excelled! I can’t think of a better way to prove my previous points. Thank you to all of you who had faith in the system and I welcome others to reach out to me with questions about our system.
We will continue to show our superior results regardless of AAPL’s direction.
Please reach out to me if you are interested in free trials longer than the current 7 day offer.
Simple Swing just closed its best month since joining C2. We continue to post exceptional performance. Many of our users leverage up because our drawdowns are very low, for those of you looking for high returns consider this option as you review systems.
Read through this forum and you will find everything I wrote about has happened. We’ve performed consistently and always controlled our risk. Check out Simple Swing
Write me with any questions.
On Avg how long to you keep trades open?
Thanks,
Dave
Swing Trading FX
Thanks for the question, trades are open roughly 3.5 days.
I should add, there is no max time they will be left open and there is no target either so trade length can vary based on market conditions.
Thanks for the fast response!
Dave,
Swing Trading FX
I’ve been subscribing since Oct. 2015. I am very happy with the system. At this time, the annual average return is about 3x the size of the largest drawdown to date. Very solid system, with good management of trades once they are open. Not always invested, but good probabilities on the trades once it is open.
Thanks for the kind words and for being a loyal subscriber. I look forward to many more successful trades.
