The SP500 has returned 4.31% YTD as of this write-up on 06.01.16. We are currently trading at 2099 near the highs for 2016 which currently stands at 2111 from April 20th. We are up significantly from the February 11th lows of 1810. This is a move of 16% in 77 trading days. The market has been consolidating sideways since its April 20th high was made. If the 2111 breaks the next stop for the market will be the 2015 high of 2134.
The Valencia Select SP500 strategy has performed as expected as it seeks to outperform the SP500 on a quarterly basis. Valencia Select SP500 is currently up 13% for the year. The metrics for the strategy put it at having a 2.50% chance of incurring a 10% loss which helps subscribers sleep at night.
The strategy is positioning itself for a pullback in oil as it has had a great run since its February lows of 26.05 and is currently trading at 48.91. The Valencia Select SP500 anticipated this move and profited nicely as oil has moved in the expected direction. We should see sideways consolidation in oil over the medium term and could see trading back down into the low 40s before resuming to new highs.
