But remember , the reality of market is that a stop loss only provide a temporary pause in the market place that has nothing to do do with risk evaluation or safe net or any form of guard against possible bankrupt of your porfolio. Stop loss is just a mean to pause let you reflect on the next move of the market, but in reality you still have to trade to determine the next best trade to make a profit therefore wheather you drag or stop loss is irrelevant but you have have to know that your profit or winner will have to be more frequently to offset your loss, or else your stop loss could drive you to bankrupcy. The point is what difference does it make if the provider on c2 give us max intraday drag or not , since the market will be the judge on the weather or not that trade will come back. Because the reality is if you were to drag 10k on 1 contract intra-day chances are you not comming back. So to make any profitable trade in any real market the drag will have to be reasonable , especially on intra-day trading , because the market is ruthless and will kill you if your drag is too large. So the point is if you have a large intraday drag , chances are you not comming back , if you double up on a drag your chances are in a pure mathematically and statistically is probably the same chance as if you were to enter a new trade. Now if you have another piece of information that lead you to believe that your drag will come back then the double up on a drag is a bit better , however you still at the mercy of the market since your information is only 50/50 chance interm of pure math. Let face it at any one point in the market is really 50/50 chance. As for the drag, wheather its intraday or daily is the same since you are not actually making any profit. As far as you want to know how much dragging before profit from intraday, trust me the designer will have to take that into account that a reasonable drag would have to be made to make a profit otherwise the system would be unprofitable. So I dont see the point of knowing how much drag from intraday to hit profit because again the reality is after x-amount of contracts being enter you already know 2 factors about that trade, a future profit and a future loss . Now how does it contribute to your analysis if it drag 99% of your porfolio and come back or if it drag about 1% then come back. because again the maker of the system already consider those factors and mathematically estimate the probability of that trade base on the amount of money available in the porfolio, because if he doesn’t the market will kill him over time and as we all will see that the graph will show sharp drops the following day. Again what does it matter if the drag is -99% then come back or -1% then come back. What matter is how much profit and how much loss after a system is traded over time , because if you allocate your money accordingly you will survive the drag simple is that. Again any system designer will take that into consideration , which mean that the drag will have to be reasonable for a profitable system. So anyone tell you that a system drag about 99% then come back on a positive profit is really not being honest because that’s more like investing. However , we all see system that can come down 40-50-60% and come back profitable over time because the designer knows that another 40-50-60 % drag will lead to bankrupcy, therefore the drag would have to be minimized and the profit would have to be very profitable to survive another major drag. So who really cares if the trade is down 40% then come back as long as we look at the system and the equity curve is moving up and the system is tradable. Because we all know that the market is unpredicatable and future drags are unpredictable and future profit cannot be based on pass performence. All we can said is that the system was profitable for the pass x - weeks , x months ectts… but there are no guarantee that pass performence= to future performence, therefore no guarantee that max pass drag= max future drag. Again , we can only said that the system was profitable over x-amount of period and thats why we trade on those system. That’s why I dont see how intraday or max intraday drag will help anyone make any decisions on weather to trade with that system or not.
You mention that I dont believe in stop loss , it is not the case again let me point out that a fix stop loss is just a pause in the market place but you still have to make the next move. So if you feel that the market does not come back then it is an exit of your position so to have a fix stop loss after an entry is like saying yeah the market at this point is no longer profitable , but we all know that’s not the case because we dont know how the market will behave into the future therefore we cannot assume that x number is our stop loss. We can say that the trade is no longer profitable then it’s time to exit.
I will never subscribe to a system who doesn’t use stop losses
Good. Stops are for birds because stop-running will eat you alive. I hope you never do subscribe to those systems because it will be bothersome for those system vendors to unsubscribe you lest you leave a bad review, being such a wimp you are…
Do you honestly believe that good systems do need subscriptions and that the good system vendor is not making himself money trading/investing real-time? Just shows how ignorant you are. I wouldn’t be surprised if you lose money trading…
You are basically correct. Intra-trade DrawDown (DD) is practically useless to evaluate a system because it does not show the longer-term picture of a system, hence gives an inaccurate info. on the system. After-all a system trades with the longer-term goal in mind. Just take smaller position-sizes to control DD’s because the system vendors objective may be different.
But as Chris pointed out, you are again ignoring the fact that what is a closed-trade DD (at present shown in the combined equity plot) for a day-trading system is still an Intra-trade DD for a longer-term non-day trading system. I’m surprised that you still didn’t catch it.
you are missing the point, about stop loss , stop loss is a prevention, a tool in the market to provide better opportunities in the following entry. I have nothing against stop loss, but I just stating that stop loss may or may not be profitable system if we evaluate into the future. Therefore wheather we use stop loss or not or wheather analyze intra-day drag of an entry or not is irrelevant. Stop loss is just a pause in a state of mind in the market place. What’s important is you know that the position is profitable or not would be more critical. Again I personally have nothing against stop loss, I personally dont like the fact that a number has to be given in a market place before the future information is comming out. So You are missing the point.
What’s important is you know that the position is profitable or not would be more critical.
Good explanation. I agree.
>Again I personally have nothing against stop loss, I personally dont like the fact that a number has to be given in a market place before the future information is comming out.
Again good explanation. I agree.
But this still doesn’t resolve the issue about unfair comparisons of closed-equity DD of a day-trading system with the intra-trade DD of a longer-term system and also the Sharpe Ratio, etc., calculated from that combined-equity curve instead of the closed-equity curve for both type of systems…
But this still doesn’t resolve the issue about unfair comparisons of closed-equity DD of a day-trading system with the intra-trade DD of a longer-term system and also the Sharpe Ratio, etc., calculated from that combined-equity curve instead of the closed-equity curve for both type of systems…
I understand your point , but I am trying to tell you that it really does not matter because if a system is designed to trade intraday, a drawn down would tipically be very reasonable otherwise it would just be luck , so if the intra-day drag does not show overnite it means that the system is petty good to sustain a drag like that and come back as a profit or a small loss like the example intraday drag -5000 to close out at -1000 , and we dont see the -5000 , it does not matter too much because the designer of the intraday was able to incorporate such rish into the system , and the final number should really matter to a subscriber not the drag. Again like I said , the designer would have though it thru as to how much the drag would have to be to allow such a large drag. Because if you ever trade intra day you will notice that the more position you enter the harder for you to get out and the market is ruthless so the point if a system is trading intraday and being profitable then more power to the system. Because we all know that any major drag on intraday is really a carry over to next day for possible come back or total loss. So if an intraday system makes profit but does not show any intraday drag that’s perfect because that to me is a great system involving a major drag and able to come back before the market closed. If anything anyone should look at is the number and if a trader has enough money to carry out multiple loss on an intraday trading. Again to seriously trade any intraday trading system , a trader should look at if the system is profitable over time , if thats the case then who cares if you have major drawn down or different sharp ration comparison ect… to long term system. The point is if a system is profitable and trade on intraday only , the designer probably takes into account the drag and risk reward ratioc ect… So there is no need for us to try to compare a long term system to a short term system because systems are systems wheather its long short medium, what matter is that’s a profitable system and that’s not, now if the intraday drag but come back then who cares how much it has to drag to come back. All we need to know that it came back and made a profit and the long term system is in a drag. because money devaluated over time if the long term system drag and the intraday drag more but did not drag over time then the designer must have taken that into consideration by saying yeah but look my system close out on a positive at end of the day with xnumber of contracts while your long term system is dragging. So it ultimately reflects on the positive number, if the drag from the intraday system is intolerable then the designer would have made as a stop loss, because that drag better be back as a profit or else it will show up as a drag the following day. That’s why it is futile to try to compare intraday drag ,different sharp ration ect… for different period trading system because eventually all system would have to perform weather short term or long term . Performence is the key to all trading system and it can only be measure with the profit curve, because we all have x dollars and x number of time to play with. So if you look at it , the bottom line is really what distinguish you from the other guy and the time line of the system. Because you can make excuses for this system is intraday so we should not use sharp ratio to analyze against long term system but really does it matter, because ultimately the best system will show up on positive and bad system on negative. As we trade again and again over time , we will see an emerging pattern of profit and loss and we will also see if the system is tradable or not.
As far as you point out that it is not fair to compare trade drag on long term to intraday trade drag. but really we just want to make money here. If the trade drag of a day to day trading show up on the profit/ loss curve and the intraday does not show on any graph , then you said it’s not fair right? Well the answer to that question is it is the designer fault then to allow such drag on daily basis. because we all have x-amount of money and we all want to get to that x-amount of profit in x-amount of days so whoever gets there first is the winner, who cares if you drag 1x or 2x dollars to get there, as long as you get there that’s important in x-amount of days too don’t forget. Again it is really futile to try to try to get that intraday drag from an intraday system because if it is really severe then it would have been a stop loss. I hope you see my point.
I understand your point but disagree with it. A potential subscriber needs a valid basis for evaluating systems. He doesn’t have so noe is clearly evident from so many posts of subscribers complaining that it is too hard to find the right systems that make money, so that they end up jumping from system to system, losing money 25%, even 60% in that process. Why is it too hard? Because they are comparing apples to oranges and reaching the wrong conclusions.
One cannot get something for nothing - not in the field of trading/investing nor in the field of knowledge. One cannot reach truth, material wealth, any more than knowledge, by accident. One can reach it only by a process of reason. Having an invalid, unfair, unbalanced, partial basis for comparing systems throws haywire the process of reason because it is rife with fallacies and prejudice. That would be a serious miscalculation and will ultimately prove to be too costly not only monetarywise for the real trader/investor but also psychologically
A subscriber choosing the right system will reach a positive verdict (that one was right) which is a reward for having done the right thing and it gives one the strength required to persevere in his course.
A negative verdict (that one was wrong resulting in self-doubt or self-hatred) is a sort of punishment for having lived one’s days out of focus, and it cripples the spirit, and makes one spend their time primarily not on pursuing goals but on trying to cope with fear and guilt; fear because he has abandoned his weapon of survival - one’s power to think; guilt because he knows he has done it volitionally…
Again if you talking about information, too much info can kill a trader so just let the system proff itself to fufill your needs, money lots of it. Who cares how it gets there, those are the intellectual properties not reality. The reality is who can make money with how much and how long simple is that. I really dont even know if some of the statistical numbers on here are correct, so much misleading . Look I have a rating of above 900 but what does it mean really? does it mean that if you trade with me you will make money or does it mean other stuff? To tell you the truth rating above 900 means crap to me because every time I enter a trade I have constantly remind myseft that the market is unpredictable and I just want to be on the positive at the end of the day plain and simple. Other than that all those statistically analysys are in the pass nothing prove to me that in the future I will maintain that rating of above 900 because I cannot predict the market no crystal ball here. I only trade base on my experiences and I want to be positive at end of the day. And if somehow that rating of 900 and above lump into my evaluation as a good trader then I advise you to be very careful on any system at all because those are back data that you are looking at. I guess 900 could mean a lot of things so do lots of numbers , statistical numbers on here. Can you guarentee that if I pick a trader with pass rating above 900 will make you money? The answer is no , yet we all want to know this and that and this and that , what is the point , just give me the result that’s it. Again performence is the key. Let not waste anyone time looking into pass data shall we. Perform and I invest , simple. I recently made 10k on cointcollector 4 not with autoTRADING WITH USING THEIR DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT TO MAKE MY TRADE BECAUSE I look at their statically profir/ loss ratio and the curve its up. Over time I know that their probability will make you money because they win 70% and loose 30% , I dont care about their trade drag stop loss or what ever people said , I look at a very simple thing and thats it. Look my point is this , the designer already perform the work for you already so now look at those profit/ loss over time see how long will it take you to get there , and wheather or not it can be done simple.
Your view-point is so dangerous because you are ignoring slippages/commissions affecting returns, realistic results expressed in the realism factor, consistency in achieving those realistic results, the self-esteem of a system expressed in the form of W:L ratio, the perfection of a system expressed in the form of actual trade DrawDown, all of which are calculated differently for these two types of systems (day-trading and non day-trading longer-term systems) because the equity curves are so different as it is currently at C2 and just looking at the profit/loss figure which is not a reliable method of reaching certainty and is a very short-term, narrow, in-accurate, mis-leading basis for evaluation of a system.
This results in the statistics (including profit/loss figure) at C2 to be so short-term oriented, fluctuating so rapidly from day to day, that it is practically useless to compare systems.
I’m frankly surprised that a seemingly intelligent system vendor thinks like that, what can one tell about the average subscriber.
Again if you talking about information, too much info can kill a trader
Also the above is an absurd statement. In statistics, information and probability are treated in exactly the same manner. Are you trying to say that more information which means more probability will kill a trader. The more the probability the more one is certain about their decision, but you are claiming just the opposite.
>Over time I know that their probability will make you money because they win 70% and loose 30% ,
The above is another absurd statment. Most of us know that %wins whatever this number is, is irrelevant. One has to look not at the frequency of correctness but at the magnitude of correctness, i.e, frequency of correctness times the magnitude of the win - frequency of losing times the magnitude of loss and to normalize it over the average loss to get profit expectancy per dollar risked and also the W:L ratio which is highly correlated with this.
Frankly, I’m baffled. You are twisting everything. Are you by any chance drunk?
I really think that the number one thing that makes money in the market is good money management and from my experiences as a 7 years trader, everything else is secondary too the primary. Yet I am just surprise that you are not commenting on my rating that’s what baffle me the most. Do you feel like talking to an above 900 c2 rating? or less than 100 c2 rating , If you feel that I am so weak in the erea of statistical analysys? How come my rating is way above average? Note C2 rating of 500 is good, mine is above 900 , How do we explain that?
I were talking about the appropriateness of Pal’s posts to this thread. Nowhere did I mention I have a better system than him, or that I mastered trading. I don’t know where you get that from. What does me creating a system get to do with the appropriateness of Pal’s posts? My same comment to him also goes for you. If you cannot understand a topic and make relevant posts, then please stay quiet.
Again, you dont have the brains to understand his posts and so you are in no way to judge the appropriateness. Same goes for my posts. You are too dumb when it comes to trading but talk as if you have mastered it evidenced in the tone of your posts.
The rating has nothing to do with the ability to evaluate systems of which you have a poor ability, atleast which is what I get the impression of.
And also, the rating is calculated wrong because it takes into account the Sharpe ratio which is based on different equity curves for day-trading and longer-term non day-trading systems, resulting in an inaccurate ratio/rating and also the Sharpe has to be calculated based on a longer time period, otherwise the numbers will just fluctuate too rapidly along with the rating to make any sense out of it…
Thanh Phan, more paragraph breaks…please
resulting in an inaccurate ratio/rating and also the Sharpe has to be calculated based on a longer time period, otherwise the numbers will just fluctuate too rapidly along with the rating to make any sense out of it…
Then what do you actually use to study or what factor and at which point would you said a system is reasonable to invest with low risk?
I guess what I am trying to tell the potential investors out there , beware, numbers change constantly and factors that we use to study systems are potentially very misleading because we are looking at a very short time frame. If we try to extrapolate these data so that we can invest or trade without taking the future market behavior that’s very risky. If we believe that because a signal on a graph is telling us to enter a trade is a good probable trade base on pass data, let me tell you that’s a big mistake. From my trading experiences, the market is so random and caos that systems analysis will fall into the same pitfall, historical data will provide future performences of which is not the case at all. Historical data are just that ,history. Because the posibilities are endless it would be difficult to break down anything or if anything can be broken down.
Good question. C2 is a competitive place. System vendors are competing for subscribers on the basis of performance(Annualized Return on Equity), so they do take positions with leverages commensurate with those returns to maximize the productivity of their system. Nothing wrong with that, as long as one is correct about the direction of the market.
Reward should be atleast commensurate with risk. Since entry controls risk, as they improve their entry timing rules, the risk decreases over time. That is one of the advantages of hypothetical real-time walk-forward testing as at C2.
Trading done that way with proper strategies like scaling (assuming that one is correct about the direction), is not gambling. If one is not correct about the direction, trading reduces to gambling. But investing (for the longer-term) is not gambling because one of the differences between gambling and investing is that because in gambling, the house has the distinct advantage, the more you gamble you more you lose; the house takes a piece of every pot from both the winners and losers and most gamblers fall into the pitfall of risk aversion, so that they do not increase their bet-size aggressively when the odds favor them; while in investing the more you are invested in, the more you make. This is a key difference. Also, in gambling substantial losses are always the most likely outcome, while in invsting/trading substantial losses are just one of the outcomes. The difference is in the odds. The average moron tries to grab the brass ring by buying the lottery ticket where the odds are 1 in million while one gets much better odds in trading/investing.
Nobody knows about the risk tolerance of the subscribers. Each has their own risk tolerances. What the system description may indicate is the recommended position sizing strategies. It is upto the subscriber to want to follow it or devise a more conservative strategy based on his risk tolerance.
They can’t practically recommend position sizes tailored to the risk tolerance of each and every subscriber. Their Model Positions are representative positions that put our best economic forecasts to work. These are not recommendations to buy or sell specific instruments, nor are they personalized investment advice, otherwise it would open them to lawsuits.
What I learnt over many years of trading/investing is that the top money manager in the world is… YOURSELF!
It’s true. When it comes to managing YOUR investments and planning for YOUR future, no so-called professional on Wall Street or anywhere else knows more about you or has your best interests as firmly in mind as you do.
