The Cash is the king?

Trading and Markets
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If you trade volatility, the Cash position is the king now…

Why?

The market is changing all the time and many times this changing is happening slowly and behind the screen… Every couple of years the market is giving us a ticket to a new show…Sometimes the ticket cost us a lot…Sometimes this is a free ticket :slight_smile:

Remember the year 1999? The market forgot the “regular” assumptions and behavior and achieved a new high almost every day in one of the best years ever for the Nasdaq…

Remember the year 2008? The same story but in the opposite side…

2017 was also different…The year without a real corrections…

2018? The first year of rising interest after almost a decade of zero interest…

If you subscribed to algo trading system like I have, you must be sure that your system is ready for the coming show which by the way already starts with one of the best January ever for the S&P500…

As always, nobody knows anything about the future and the market may continue as 2017 BUT from the risk/reward point of view, all of my strategies point to a very higher risk environment since December 2015 and as a result a Cash position is one of the best weapons against this situation…

I can tell for a sure (almost :slight_smile: ) that if you run (as a developer or as a subscriber) a strategy which is doing martingel or average down, you will not consider 2018 as one of your best year…

Be careful is better than be sorry… 2018 looks different since day one…

…

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After a lot of months, we entered today to Backwardation…

Officially, the high risk environment is here…
Maybe for more than a day or two…

I think that the Cash is the king now especially for VIX strategies…

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@RobertPeterson good call going to cash Robert!

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Most systems took a heavy hit today, lets see how they handle this down turn in the market

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Did you decide to go all cash after losing 25%?

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I assume you are talking to me, but not sure? I wanted to go to cash/conservative position around the time of the original post by Robert, but my algorithm had not triggered yet, and I don’t override it except in the case of if there where an error. I haven’t proven to myself yet that I can outsmart my algorithm on average on the long term. So I don’t try with real money. It did go to a more conservative allocation not too long ago though.

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I assume you were talking to me because mine went from 1.75 to 1.5 on the chart. Though, that accounts to a 13.5% drawdown. Not great, but not 25% and within my expected ranges for that strategy.

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VIXTRADER was up 151% now 126, not quite 25% but nowhere near good enough to be preachy.

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This from the guy who doesn’t even have 2 months of performance yet and is on the forum begging for subscribers daily.

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Hi Thanos,

I read what you wrote about my strategy VIXTrader and I did not know what to do first…To laugh or to cry…:slightly_smiling_face::frowning_face:

You wrote: “Did you decide to go all cash after losing 25%?”

  1. Your statement include an inside assumption that I take decisions for my strategy… Well, I am not… All my strategies are algo based and I do not take any decision whatsoever … So your assumption is totally wrong…

  2. Unfortunately you show everybody here that you do not know what is a loss and how to calculate it …I hope you had a better mathematics skills when you developed your VIX strategy… If I was one of your subscribers, I could not sleep well now :slight_smile:

Here are the facts:

  1. The strategy VIXTrader has a DD of 7.6% which mean that it is never loss 25%…
    See here: https://collective2.com/details/106901765

  2. The strategy VIXTrader Professional has a DD of 13.4% which mean that it is never loss 25%
    See here: https://collective2.com/details/106600099

BTW, loss (in trading…) mean that you have less money in your account compare to a sum you had in specific time in the past. The difference is the loss…

You know what, come to my mind a thought that you do know how to calculate loss but you wrote this just to try to mislead people who do not really understand the numbers in order to find new subscribers to your young strategy…

No… I am not believe it… :slightly_smiling_face:

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Thanx for the clarification Robert Peterson, if that’s even your name.
You seem foreign so just curious, where are you from? I’m basing on your broken English you are not English. Everyone makes typos, that’s ok.

Well I’m going to bet since you’ve started your system after a down turn that, VIXTRADER takes a dump in any choppy market.

Have a nice day.

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Is it better to conserve capital or lose capital? Maybe one loses subscribers due to being flat but are those subscribers better off following a well managed strategy or being in a position that could deplete it? Cash is a position the last time I checked.

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Thanos (or whatever you are calling yourself these days) - 2 things to note.

  1. You aren’t a native English speaker either. It’s obvious.
  2. Your system has a higher drawdown than VixTrader after less than 2 months.

Back to the original subject. Yes, cash is king sometimes. Greenspan even said today - stock and bond bubble. He’s the king of creating bubbles so maybe he can tell. lol.

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The key here is his name is probably fake and he’s most definitely NOT an ANGLO. Probably Asian posing as an Anglo.

Bottom line, he started his systems after a volatile time.

His name is suspect considering his speech.

Many will most likely lose in the end, and they will say Thanos was right.

Misleading. But that’s ok. He will not be here in several months or will just reinvent himself down the road. Perhaps he’ll be back as DogHorse.

Are you some kind of Collective2 groupie or something? Very weird.

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Nah, I just like to call out kids like you who come in here and talk about how much better their system is than anyone else. (150-0, or whatever the heck that meant. lol)
Especially kids like you who then go on to rag on others systems that have legitimate longer term track records when all you have is a couple leveraged XIV gains in the first month.

VixTrader has made money for his subscribers over a year long period. You have not.

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So does buy and hold.

I’m going with you’re some creepy goof who’s out here 24/7 since you replied within 90 seconds of my post.

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The crash is one of the best thing that happened to C2!

Why?

Well, now we will see much more strategies with a decent MM and RM and a lot from the spirit of gambling will be removed form C2 strategies…

People need to know that the strategies here will not make them poor… this is very important for the future of all of us…

All the developers that gave to their subscribers the illusion of making profits from the stock market while they were actually just a gamblers like any other gambler in Vegas who is sure he found the way to beat the casino…

The methods of averaging down, martingale, no-stop loss and other similar ways to “manage” risk, should not be here. Not now and not in the future!
We deal with the money of others who rely on us and we must do everything to protect it…

We have often spoken of the need for MM and strict RM in order to maintain the most important rule in the world of investments which is not to lose money. The second rule is, as you know, do not forget the first rule…

I suggested to C2 not to allow this kind management or at least to alert any such strategy… Other members of this forum came up with similar proposals but C2 did nothing…
Eventually Mr.Market came and erased all these strategies …

What is very unfortunate is that significant funds of those who have registered to these strategies without realizing the magnitude of the risk (the developer of the strategy apparently did not bother to tell them…), lost the money they had worked for many years… Many tears have been spilled in recent days solely because of bad risk management … I have no doubt that any strategy with basic risk management could trade such a day with only a small loss …

What happened was surprising, of course, and no one expected it… Only a few days before it happened, my trading system recognized that the risk is very high, so I wrote here the following sentence: “If you trade volatility, the cash position is the king now”…

Someone asked me how I knew that …I wrote that and of course I did not know what was going to happen…This is the beauty of an algorithmic trading system…The system “think” for you…Faster and deeper… :slight_smile:

The system which has been invested in the developing more than 50,000 hours, keep me and my partners (so called subscribers :slight_smile: ) out of the game while the hurricane started outside…
Any way, if my system had a short position on this day, then it would go out to Cash position at a maximum loss of 3% - 4%…

Everybody know now that the this year will be different from the year before but my experience telling me that the best time is coming after the dark so 2018 after all could be a better year than 2017!

For summarize, I am going to be even more careful with the money of my partners…:pray:

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Hi Robert, first of all, you know I think you have great strategies and I have referred some of my friends to them (in addition to mine of course! :slight_smile: )

I agree with most of what you said, but I do want to say that just because a strategy stayed out of or profited from this recent market correction doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s going to do the same during the next event. As you know, the results of any strategy are a mix of luck and science. The good ones will hopefully be more science than luck, but that’s often hard to tell…especially after a limited number of large market events. Anyone can sit down at a blackjack table and walk away at the end of the night a winner – does that mean he or she has a good card counting system, and that success is likely to continue, or was it just luck and that next time they are just as likely to lose? The smart subscriber will take note of this months’ returns, and use them to understand the trading and risk management philosophy of the system owner, but not let them give them a false sense of security.

I am curious – because so much of the volatility action on Monday week took place after regular trading hours, when C2 is detached, are you still comfortable with your risk management philosophy? If you happened to have been long XIV Monday going into the close, and during regular hours the drop was only a couple percent, but then it cascaded after hours – what then? Obviously that’s not quite the way it went down this time…but it might be the next time.

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Yes thats true, but that does not change anything! The systems that gets new subscriptions from less informed are still the ones which has crazy returns in the short term. say systems that started in last 2-3 months. so i dont think anything has changed/will change on C2 :slight_smile:

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There will be new high risk systems that will emerge and new developer id’s…lol…unless there is a change to how new systems are allowed to be available to investors nothing has changed. All that happened was that the high risk systems collapsed.