I have no track record here, but for what it is worth I too am moving out of my bullish outlook today. Now me saying that means nothing since I have no track record. Therefore, I wouldn’t post it other than to make the point that things are different for Robert. Robert does appear to have achieved a successful track record. I don’t mind people like him making posts like this. It almost serves as another indicator if multiple leaders with good track records seem to be getting out it may be time to get out or reduce size.
If there is one thing I’ve learned in years in the investment industry its that pundits and people making wide predictions about the market aren’t worth listening too (no offense). Perma bears will be right eventually and perma-bulls usually get the upper hand most of the time, but few, if any, can do it accurately.
Everyone says their method can spot it. Most of these people called for it in early 2016, when a TON of macro and micro signals were in line when the market was crashing and what happened? Market rallied 50% higher in just 2 years from Feb 2016.
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I agree that most pundits aren’t worth listening too and perma-bulls and bears are going to eventually be right. I am not saying Robert is a god or will always be right or that he hasn’t just gotten lucky so far. My only point is that he at least has a verifiable track record. Something virtually no pundit ever has or shows. Therefore, I would put more weight on what he says than a pundit on TV or another person on the forums with a track record that isn’t as good.
I agree with you completely!
No one knows when the market will begin to fall but when dealing with trading strategies that includes different rules, data, orders system, risk management and control, there are times like today when hedging should be played because statistically (only statistically!) the market can begin to decline and the volatility can begin to rise.
I wrote several times that the market could of course begin to rise and then nothing would have happened in terms of trading strategies. Everything will be back to normal at once.
If the market goes on its way down then the defense will prove itself.
I think it’s just common sense that every trader must adopt. If it is dangerous then it is imperative to protect your money. Simple as that.
This is the most important issue when we trade.
I just can’t stand the people that say “oh this could be the beginning of a BEAR MARKET”.
Key word there is “could”.
Yes, it “could” be. But it could not. Who freggin’ knows.
If it becomes a bear market those people will say “SEE I TOLD YOU”, and if it doesn’t they’ll say “WELL I SAID ‘COULD’, SO I KNEW IT ‘COULD’ BOUNCE BACK…”
We have a guy at my office who does this crap at every investment meeting. Points out random things (oil/timber/stocks/etc.) and then says how they could break out, “or not”.
And we’re thinking - why are you even employed here, bozo?
Sorry, just wanted to rant about this. I’ll stop now.
Congrats on your success so far Robert.
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I think just like you!
It’s like a broken clock that still shows the right time twice a day.
I hope you noticed that the last time I talked about a possible risk to the market was almost a year and a half ago … I hope you do not think that I am like the broken clock…
Thank God my wife will not see this post otherwise she would say that I’m definitely talking at home like a broken clock 
By the way, I noticed that there are developers who did stop sending signals and went to Cash after I saw a possible danger. I hope that their subscribers will enjoy it because after all, you still need to know when to return to the market, powerfully or not powerfully, and I keep this to my subscribers 
Thank you for the greetings… Good luck!!
I don’t understand most of the developers here. Nobody has an issue with the bull market. Everyone rings all possible alarms on the bear market.
Is it just the opposite direction highway?
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Looks like we MAY have bottomed out before hitting the S&P 2700 level (now at the 2800 level again). Only time will tell if this is the bottom though. If I were a gambling man I would say this is the bottom for now though…lol
Best to always be prepared for any reversals though.
The whole idea of this post is to present extreme situations in the market that rarely appear and are characterized by rising volatility and declining market.
As we know, most of the time the market recovers from declines and back to rise. The small problem is that we will never know it in advance and this is why it is good idea to reduce long position or go cash when we see it coming…
We play in a field of uncertainty and we must not forget it, especially after we make money…
The volatility of the account value is also very important to the regular investor…
Until now, the defense worked just fine…
I totally agree @RobertPeterson…no one can predict with any certainty and we can only try and hedge any longer term positions in our portfolio.
For daytrading there is no need for long term forecasts or hedging but its pretty hard to consistently make a profit daytrading day in and day out.
Are you saying that you are still in defensive mode?
I would be happy to tell you but I keep this info to my loyal subscribers…Sorry…
Anyway, I will continue to write here every time my system will identify a significant potential risk in the market because I know how its feels like when you lose a lot of money… 
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Lol…great promoter! 
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Trouble is, those same people you say you are trying to help keep their money, can still lose their money without your help as to when it is safe again. Looks like the S&P is ready to start a downturn, will this be a correction or will it be a bear market, my guess is it will be a correction, but will it make new highs or turn down, ahhh the dilemma of trading…the volatility could have built up for a surging high or for a hard down move… and a surging high at this point could be followed by a strong bear move…and after a strong bear move there should be new highs made…Timing is everything…so share your timing so people can keep their money…
Hi futurmajic,
I appreciate what you wrote and I really understand your feeling during this volatile market…
All posts here are meant to try to prevent high losses that will be difficult to recover from in the future.
Small losses are an integral part of the game however we must do everything to avoid high losses…
I have been in C2 for almost three years and I saw quite a few strategies which disappeared within a few days due to adventurous risk management… As I have written several times, I had experience of a very large losses in the market about 20 years ago and I know exactly what is the feeling when it happens and as a result of it, C2 and all the developers here suffer from a bad reputation…
That’s why I make every effort to avoid losses and make money while maintaining low volatility in the investment account. There are times when you need to be fully invested and there are times when you have to be in CASH or invest relatively little…
I spend here many hours every day and if I will give everything free it will not be right for me and for my family. It would be like if you go to a doctor or a lawyer and ask for free consultation…
I promise you that if you will be one of my subscribers, I will make every effort to generate for you the highest profits I can while running a risk management system which let you sleep peacefully at night …
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I appreciate Robert’s postings in this thread. I’m sure he has saved some people money just with these heads-ups messages.
Despite his most recent warning a few weeks ago not really materializing, his analysis was correct. From a probability standpoint, technical pressures were pressing VIX higher and SPX lower. But as most of us know, technicals and sentiment can change quickly and necessitate a change in position.
Thanks, Robert. Your diligent analysis and posting here is a real positive for investors. I look forward to hearing you ring the warning bells again soon.
P.S. (to a previous commenter): A VRP strategy that only looks at HV vs IV is useless without incorporating some momentum component.
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@Jay_Wolberg, that previous commenter would be me. I did not intend to lay out a quant strategy for VRP in my post, but that said I appreciate your added comment about the necessity of some momentum component with a VRP signal. This seems quite true to me, I use more than one myself, and your sentiment is clear in the literature going back at least as far as Tony Cooper’s article that I pointed interested readers toward. Simply looking at implied vol vs. realized vol would give anyone’s strategy a terrible case of whiplash. Cheers, Paul (v1Trader)
“soon”
Well, trader talking about future (Armageddon is coming) without backing his talking by position … it is just empty talk to gain exposure. And as history (much more data here than in future) shows, ‘diligent analysis’ was incorrect.
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Dear Mark,
I noticed that during the last year you have a tendency to write posts that attack me personally.
I don’t care… really…
I choose not to reply you but I think that participants in this forum may get false feeling that there are a basis to your posts…The time to fix this feeling is come today after your last post here above.
Well, I decide not to write here about the fact that you was one of my first subscribers and you made a lot of money using the strategy
but you decided to abandon the ship because I did not agree to give you a big discount as you kept asking me almost every morning… Maybe because you stopped the strategy at the worst time, you angry about me…
I will not write about the fact that C2 already prevented you from writing in the forum because of the language you use,
and I will not write about the inaccuracies bordering on a basic lack of understanding of risk management ,
and I will not write about you being a chess genius but your ability to convey your thoughts without harming others needs some of that genius …
I could continue to write quite a bit about what you wrote about me but the truth is that I’m not so important here.
I will write for my subscribers which are much important then me.
My job here is to make them a lot of money at a low level of risk but you hurt them when you post here that I say one thing and do the opposite… You hurt their confidence and their feelings and I do not agree with that in any way.
I want to tell you that when I write about market risk, it does not mean that I have stopped trading. I manage their money and my money according to my best knowledge and experience and when I speak about risk, I speak about risk and not about signals or trading. Very simple. Please read exactly what I am saying before you post here…
My posts helped people to avoid from big risks… If you do not like it, just ignore my posts…
Btw, the strategy is near all time high and if you were remain as a subscriber then you would make a lot of money, much more then the subscription fees…
You know, it’s never too late to join and I’d love to see you coming back but please, don’t ask for a discount again 
