Top system performing poorly lately

Lots of systems have done well over the last 8 months since the election, Over the last couple weeks, most system have been losing or gone flat. Could it be a sign the market is heading lower?

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Any answer regarding the market is speculation of course. In my opinion currently it looks like there could be a correction coming any day. but according to my intermarket analysis it’s unlikely to become a crash. Volatility is likely to explode though if the correction unfolds. (I mean it will probably explode more than usually) Your observation could mean that those systems are highly correlated - at least for the moment - which would not be a great surprise. They are leading strategies at the same time after all. :wink:

Last week was normal as far as I am concerned, this week we had 4th of July, then just wait-and-see what the NFP results will be - overall very low activity. Maybe summer doldrums. People go on holidays, market goes flat with unexpected sharp moves. Not so nice for trading. Hope it won’t last long.

And regarding the question - is the market finally going to go down…? well, in the last 2 weeks, SPY didn’t have even a single occurrence of 2 consecutive down days. So there is no evidence for the beginning of a correction yet.

Guru, why you don’t try to establish credibility first (aka make your system performing in real life not just in backtesting). Like besides you, someone cares about intermarket analysis… I understand that this forum is scene for many actors with ambitions and ego but no talent.

As a public that is risking own money on these actors, I have tomatoes in my hand too. :smile:

The market has appeared to be trying to make a correction but so far has been unable to. During periods of strong trends prices quite often ignore normal cycles and push through them, it appears that may be happening now. Still a wait and see game but there is no major pattern formed for any kind of major correction at this time. But of course, anything can happen in the markets, it just is not likely right now. This is based on over 25 years of creating a methodology which normally makes approaching tops easy to spot. On 6/6 I had a serious sell signal for a correction, and as we can see, not much has happened. The last serious sell for a correction was 12/14 and not much happened there either. The trend seems to shake them off and keeps moving higher, although this one is not yet completely shaken off, it appears to be ready to move higher and has been fighting the correction.

Analysis was based on the S&P 500

It’s easy to make money in a runaway train bull market, eventually balance will have to be restored. What really separates the good from the great will be when the bull market finally snaps

That may be true for some long only C2 stock market strategies, but for the Futures and the Forex markets there is no such thing as a bear market.

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Earnings will tell. Macro is not inspiring and Trump is in serious trouble. The Health Bill is a disaster and will shelve tax cuts. I am positioned to take advantage of a drop but the only good earnings will be the banks due to rates increasing, so we may see a push higher first.

Forgot to mention a lot of CTA funds got walloped over the last quarter also. Good time to buy IMHO.