Anyone have any experience with system or looked at it in detail? Any subscribers willing to give an opinion? I’m just curious as to what’s going on here. 159 trades, 158 winners.
looks like a martingale strategy with forex…35 lots last trade!!
martingale - a systematic strategy to harvest luck that works until it doesn’t. if it floats it becomes a yacht, which everyone knows is a hole in the water in which to throw money.
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@PhilD1, in case just saying “martingale” is not perfectly clear, here’s how it works for 100 Percent Win. With every trade that goes against the trader, trader buys/sells more contracts to lower the net cost of the trade. Then when the trade goes back in the right direction, he/she gets out of the contracts at a net win. As long as markets go up and down, or down and up, it can work, trader can get back out at a profit… and that’s the luck part. When luck goes against the trader and the trade goes on deeper in the hole, there’s no getting out, and the luckless subscribers get margin calls and have to bail at excessive losses.
To see this, go back to the strat page, click on Show AutoTrade Data, and examine the most recent trade, starting 12/26/2017… the trade suffered continual losses for a month, and the trader kept selling short more and more, slowly at first, then by the buckets. When it turned back into net positive territory, @Proxy (trade leader) got out of the trade quickly before it went further in the hole. This is what I meant about systematically harvesting luck, but it only works as long as subscribers have deep enough margin pockets to keep trading deeper and deeper against the trend, and if the trend breaks in time, and enough of a break to profit. Nearly always, such systems are destined for a crash.
Agreed. keeps chasing losing trades until they become winners. That’t how you almost win 100% of the time.
Except when you finally lose (and this WILL blow up), you lose 100% of your capital.
The good news: Looks like he only has 1-2 subscribers, so at least a lot of people won’t lose money with this clown.
I didn’t notice the martingaley sizing strategy. Thanks for pointing that out. His strategy description is awfully cocksure. I was wondering what was up with that.
Hi,
I anticipated my system would be stamped with a “martingale” label. It is actually a relief to me that @v1Trader, among others, does not fully understand the system. His stated facts are indeed factual, but his estimations of those facts are incorrect.
There is only one reason I would have the audacity to make the proclamation I am making with the system’s name. While the name is designed to get your attention, it was not a flippant decision.
My argument doesn’t extend much further than pointing to the results. I am accepting a limited number of subscribers. There is no charge right now, but I will begin charging by the end of the month based on performance.
Thanks!
@Proxy We can see that the performance so far is very good, that’s obvious to us. What we’re commenting on isn’t the fact that you’ve achieved the performance, it’s how you got there, which matters just as much (look at all the short-options strategies that money for years and then blew up last Monday).
Your trade history looks like you’re employing a martingale strategy. If it isn’t martingale, then what is it? Care to share a bit and enlighten us?
Proxy you can say whatever you want but the facts are clear.
Example of Proxy’s trade:
Buy 1 contract, it loses,
Buy another 1 contract, continues losing,
Buy another 1 contract, continues losing,
Buy another 3 contracts, continues losing,
Buy another 3 contracts, continues losing,
Buy another 3 contracts, continues losing,
Buy another 5-9 contracts, continues losing,
Buy another 10-20 contracts, continues losing,
…continue this process until you run out of capital to invest, get a margin call and lose 50-100% or the trend reverses and you close out of the trade with a 1% gain after risking basically the entire system.
This is martingale in its purest form.
Hi Proxy,
Sounds great, I wish you and your subscribers well, truly I do. I do not trade forex, I have no insider understanding of your proprietary methods, I only know what is public for others as well as me. And what I see is that in your biggest drawdown around Jan 24-26, you were in the middle of two trades (that are closed and now public; there may be others still open across that period) that were each down as much as -$7000 at their last short trade entries, accounting for the approximate magnitude of your strategy drawdown at that time. If those trades had gone south further, the losses would have been greater, of course. I believe that’s a fact, and it’s my only point. You’ve shown significant ability to keep your perfect record, and I hope for all concerned that you continue your success, but I also hope that this thread may help shed a little light on the potential risks of your approach to trading and provide illuminating for subscribers who care about such risks.
Forgive me if I am reluctant to share much about my system other than the results. It is based on knowledge, not luck.
I am trading by hand, and I can miss certain entry points, hence the seeming “contract dumps.” This effect actually turns out to be beneficial for the system and its subscribers as it improves the average price.
I am glad the trade on 12/26 has been brought up. We can all easily point to this as an obvious departure from the average trade, but we were nowhere close to a margin call and the DD did not exceed 12%.
Thanks again.
Hope you don’t mind me asking.
But, here DD was 70 %; on that same date, same trade?
How did that happen?
i dont know if you remember https://collective2.com/details/83803243
the beauty of forex is the leverage is so high and the movement is relatively small, so you can double down at least 8-10 times. Forex allow you martingale with less risk than stocks/vix/options. but 1 macro event its over. Zip4x has like 3 draw downs over 100%, but c2 doesn’t close strategies that has over 90% draw down and no margin call. so he is still alive and getting subs.
If anyone gonna subscribe to a martingale strategy, you can still do it. just make sure you diversify and scale no more than 10-20%. because i have seen zip4x blew up during brexit and 2 other times when Swiss Franc crashed overnight. Some of the subscribers end up owning FXCM and OANDA money next morning for negative balance.
good luck
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More contracts. “2 and 3” is obviously far more aggressive than the more responsible trading in “100pw.” Don’t know how C2 got 70% on that either, when Max DD is 42%… no matter. I knew the trade would win, and I traded it aggressively.
12/26/17 23:35 AUD/USD AUD/USD SHORT 114.24 0.79520 2/4/18 17:59 0.79045 70.44% $5,424
115530486 12/26/17 23:35 STO 4.2 AUD/USD 0.77429
115556874 12/28/17 1:01 STO 6.72 AUD/USD 0.77967
115530507 1/1/18 23:22 STO 10.92 AUD/USD 0.78333
115823619 1/11/18 5:40 STO 17.64 AUD/USD 0.78741
115838082 1/15/18 11:00 STO 28.56 AUD/USD 0.79773
115838088 1/19/18 3:46 STO 46.2 AUD/USD 0.80357
28 to 46! wow, i’m speechless. 20bp move, he is done and will owe broker money next day. Aren’t we glad all these martingale strategy all non TOS all trade paper money.
Two possibilities: I got lucky 159 times in a row or I know what I am doing. But that is all immaterial. Thankfully, the system does not require your acceptance, neither do its results.
Thanks for your time. Good luck, good trading.
*I won’t respond to this thread any longer. PM me if you have questions.
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zip4x did it 701 times. try to keep up.
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I knew the trade would win, and I traded it aggressively.
Unless you’re HFTing, no one ever knows that a trade will win, ex-ante.
If your scaling entry strategy is open-ended, then it’s a martingale, and if it ever gets within spitting distance of losing 50% of the account on a black swan macro event (where by definition you’ll be at max sizing, because you average down), then it’s also a martingale. Doesn’t matter what underlying logic you’re using; if it behaves like a martingale, then it is a martingale.
If you want to use a scaling/martingale strategy, that’s fine, just be honest with us. As I’m sure you’re already aware, the best defense you have against large market moves is to trade very, very small.
Great quote.
Sadly no, some poor bastards fell victim to his “performance” and probably didn’t kick the tires. He has 1-2 subscribers with REAL money. So sad.
To any readers of this thread, stay away from systems like this unless you want to lose most of what you invest. Great investors don’t win 100% of the time. No one does - and this charlatan “Proxy” is no exception.
As I found last week:
Among the 41 top rated strategies on C2 on Feb. 5, those with a win rate above 79% had a 75% chance of failure or serious trouble in the last week, while those with a win rate of 79% or less had only a 21% chance of serious trouble.
Strategies with win rates above 85% had a similar 75% rate of very large DD, from just one challenging event. After 3 or 4 major challenges over the next few years, one would expect that strategies with very high win rates would fail at an even higher rate.
Maybe yours is different–maybe not. Unfortunately, risk-averse investors may think that a very high win rate REDUCES their risk of loss, rather than increases it.
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