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This is a post where I am inviting your opinion on 2 questions:
1.) What is the best martingale system on c2? Why?
2.) What is your guess when it will go bust? I need a specific date for this.
Here goes my favourite:
1.) A Strategy for YM
Why? Please check 5th february trade which was exited 7th february. Open trade drawdown %: 21.19%
2.) 16th April 2018.
Cheers.
Just like in gambling… Martingale will never work… and yes Start for YM is just scary
@JohnDesey Your guess date for the explosion?
We will have a raffle among the closest calls.
Great Thread. Make sure to provide system links.
I think your “A Strategy for YM” may take longer to go bust since it is TOS and he doesn’t seem to always do a classic martingale.
I’m going with this guy who was recently highlighted:
Changed his name from “100 Percent Win” to “100 Percent Forex” recently. He’ll last longer than others before he explodes. I’ll say…
November 11, 2018. Veterans Day - I’ll get that and a free lunch! 
Cheers!
@DogZebra_Investing Thank you, I edited my original post and included the system link.
It may be a post-modern martingale then if it is not classic. 
21% DD on a single trade. What if the trade goes further south on him? Would he exit at 30%? or 40%? or 90%? In this case he can place carefully his TOS where the sun don’ shine.
I guess we will have to wait until 16th April. As Nostradamus predicted.
Here’s Nostadamus’ system link:
You know i have subscribed to him" A Strategy for YM" but i did put on hold after the big 1500 point drop. Watching at this point. I can not figure out if this guy is just lucky or if his system is that good. He is TOS at 500% so he has a lot of skin in the game.
@GREGGL Yes, he is TOS. 95% futures traders lose in the long run despite the fact that it’s their money. I have issued this warning in time for anyone to see. And you don’t need me actually, you just need his trade list.
Hello,
I do not know if you are aware of it: this system has a track record since 2000 -> https://www.dagian.com/investment-and-trading/stock-futures-ETF/dow-jones-nasdaq-sp-ftse-hong-kong/market-analysis-signals-alerts/trackrecords.php
It looks like they were able to play the short side as well. But with drawdowns of up to 10% in the Dow Jones Index which would probably whipe out most accounts. Will be interesting to see what happens in the next big leg down in the markets. In the recent sell-off they were lucky as their systems was on vacation in the first week of the mini-crash.
@granfondo055 This is even more alarming to allow a 21% open trade drawdown with such a long track record. It seems they need to take a beginner’s course in risk management.
Hi Csaba,
I subscribe to a sister strategy to this one called 3 FOLD (the two are identical except that Strategy for YM has better/more timely execution on C2). It’s not a martingale strategy. The position sizing is limited to 6 contracts (maybe a bit too much?). The developer rarely maxes out his 6 contract limit. Usually he trades a partial position and will sometimes trade around a core position, e.g. long 3 contracts for an extended period but adding/taking off an additional 1 or 2 from day to day. I was in the strategy on Feb 5 during the day’s crash and yes the drawdown was pretty stiff but by the end of the day he’d reduced his holding from 6 to 2 contracts. This is the opposite of a martingale, which would have added more length as the market fell. It seems like he practices some kind of risk management through position sizing.
While I do think he’s somewhat overleveraged for the amount of capital (which can be a matter of personal taste anyway), I don’t think this is a martingale strategy.
@PhilD1 You are right, it is not a classic martingale. I haven’t mentioned 3 Fold, I only talk about A Strategy for YM. When would you consider it martingale? If Dow goes further down and he has 30-50-70-90-99% open trade drawdown? Large open trade DD may not mean martingale so you are right. I should use a different term like reckless, irresponsible etc.
To me the definition of martingale is a specific type of behavior (adding into losing positions on an open-ended basis, with no limit). So, I think by definition he does not martingale.
The drawdown question you raised is a different issue though, and it’s a legitimate concern. He doesn’t use stops, but rather a long/short model that’s almost always in the market. To me this sounds like a trend following model that issues a new signal every day. The blind spot for a model like this is days like Feb 5 - big single-day crashes where he 1) won’t stop out because he doesn’t use a stop and 2) won’t flip long to short because he has to wait until EOD to get a new market direction signal. I think his way of trying to manage that problem is by his use of position sizing.
One other thing to keep in mind…he had a 21% open DD but look at his returns. I think it’s obvious he’s trading very aggressively. The model account is overleveraged for how big it is (~$150k). However, if this strategy were scaled to 33% in a subscriber’s account and he was getting 100%+ per year return but took a 7% open DD on Feb 5, would that look better to you?
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2017 +17.3% +7.0% +11.2% +39.5% (5.3%) +11.3% +43.7% +24.4% +16.0%
2018 +43.6% +11.2%
These are his monthly returns. How does this add up to 300%? It was 165.1% in 2017.
I don’t know why the 325% yearly profit is fraudulently shown in his system.
At 33% scaling it might work, I hope many C2 subs have half a million or over a million usd accounts to have this as only one of their portolio systems.
Sorry, I was referring to 3 FOLD, the one I’m subscribed to. Strategy for YM has much shorter history.
@PhilD1 Ok, no probem.
3 Fold is not subject of this post.
3 FOLD and Strategy for YM use the same model to generate trading signals. The only difference is that Strategy for YM executes orders in a way that is supposedly more efficient on C2. Not sure exactly what that means but that’s what the developer told me when I asked.
CsabaBiro1125m
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2017 +17.3% +7.0% +11.2% +39.5% (5.3%) +11.3% +43.7% +24.4% +16.0%
2018 +43.6% +11.2%
These are his monthly returns. How does this add up to 300%? It was 165.1% in 2017.
I don’t know why the 325% yearly profit is fraudulently shown in his system.
At 33% scaling it might work, I hope many C2 subs have half a million or over a million usd accounts to have this as only one of their portolio systems.
@CsabaBiro01, surely you must know that all results shown are compounded including those for your own strategy.
From C2: “Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results
The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.”
“Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.”
Your strategy indicates monthly amounts of 2.0%, 11.5%, 34.6%, 23.1% which totals 71.2% and not the 88.3% shown on your page. You cannot simply add the monthly returns because of the compounding effect.
@carzxxz Ok, got it now.
I like using natural log returns personally, for this reason - you CAN add them arithmetically. Makes the math easier, and not hard to convert to conventional returns whenever I want. But that’s for my own portfolio and backtesting work, not here.
But in his case, you couldn’t compound the profits so easily, could you? If he takes, let’s say, up to 6 contracts on a trade, adding one contract at a time when equity allowed wouldn’t arbitrarily compound as easily as a system that trades one contract at a time.
