The performance seems huge. Is it somehow a martingale system? Doomed to crashed?
The best thing to do is to try and subscribe without trading a live account to see. Although I believe they don’t use stops so potentially it can have a huge loss as I have seen on sim that sometimes there are a huge drawdowns.
It is a very high reward/risk system.
I don’t like to criticize other developers, but just from the trade history for 3 Fold, I see one position for 13 contracts of YM held from 12/19 to 1/8. The NOTIONAL amount for 13 contracts of YM is about $1.6 MILLION.!
So, if something happened during that period that would have caused just a 5.9% drop in the Dow, that would have WIPED OUT the entire $100,000 that is posted in the strategy. I suppose the developer has a risk strategy, but given the fact that the period covers several weekends and major holidays when the market is closed, stops would be useless. A 5.9% drop is not unrealistic and only has to happen once. I have learned to use other risk tools like put options.
One thing to point out is it is TOS and in fact YM is at 500% and 3 Fold at 300%. I do trade the YM and have made a lot of money. I however will sell all contracts except for one Friday before the close and then rebuy Sunday when it opens back up. While this can place my pricing sometimes a little more or a little less it keeps me from holding all but one over the weekend or holidays. The developer has good communication and generally reply’s with in the day. Losses are cut or positions reduced all the time sometimes during the night. So far to my knowledge there is no developer that has an 800% TOS combined system on here so he has a lot to lose as well. Like all trading it has its risk and rewards. Look at his UDOW strategy as well I have done well with that one and will hold the full position over weekend and holidays.
I just want to point out that the Max Numbers of contracts held in that specific date indicated are 8 not 13. Moreover, since futures session is open 23h/24h a stop which does not necessarily need to stay on the exchange, can be fired at any time. The overnight risk will be present over the week end though as mentioned by GreggL.
Maybe we’re looking at different sources, but I just looked again and see 13. I even see one position for 34 contracts back in Nov. I’m fairly new on C2. Should I be looking at something different other than the trade history? It’s only thing I see for prospective subs to use for analysis. Nonetheless, even 8 contracts would put a very big hole in your portfolio during an ugly event during closed periods.
If one buys 5 contracts, sells 2, buys 3, sell 1, buy 2 etc… C2 will add all the
contracts he bought to cummulative sum at the end.
No matter if he held 3 or 5 at some moment in time.
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Exact what I do with the ES over the weekend for my personal account. For subs, I buy puts because that’s what I have told them I would do. I also have an amount in my personal account that is much greater than the NOTIONAL amount so it’s really a synthetic way of holding the S&P500.
The number 13 that You see listed is related to the meaning that the the owner of this website decided to give at the sequence of a trade. Long story short, You have to count manually the number of contracts within the sequence of that trade…
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MatejGlavas said it correctly which happens on a lot of his trades.
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OK - I think I understand. Thanks! As a newbie, it’s a bit misleading to potential subs the way it is being shown. Still, if you are saying at any given time, the strategy can hold as many as 8 contracts, (at most), that’s still pretty high to let linger over a weekend or holiday.
Ok. I saw many comments from your side related to the notional amount and the related “value” of this metric that You give to the futures. It provides some valuable information of course but there are cases where the information provided would be completely misleading in evaluating different systems trading different asset classes. For instance, let’s say we need to evaluate an intraday strategy that trade a liquid future contract in the regular session only, and hold the stops at the exchange. As You can see from this simple example since the risk will be exactly defined using the notional value as a metric for systems evaluation would be inappropriate and unfair for the intraday strategy. To me honestly, the Notional value is useful only to some extent. Perhaps, a more appropriate metric for system evaluation is the geometric mean .
There’s nothing wrong with what you’re saying. I totally agree, but it’s important to point out that what you’re describing pertains more to a day trading strategy. No problem with that but I don’t consider myself a day trader. I model long term price series and then attempt to optimize exposure to a particular asset class by daily adjustments. The only reason I bring up notional amounts is to point out that for a system that earns $1,000 with a base of $10,000 (showing a 10% return) and another system that makes the same trade but shows a base of $20,000 (5% return), the higher risk of the first tends to get lost in the allure of getting a higher return from the first. Thus, I like to baseline things in my own thinking because what we’re really doing is synthetically trading a much higher amount. It’s buyer beware. I also have been around long enough to have lived through some pretty ugly market events (not unscathed) . Those cataclysmic days in the market do happen and even intraday stops don’t always come to the rescue. So that’s why I use puts. So, back to the original question - did 3 Fold actually have 8 contracts over weekends/holidays? Thanks!
He held 8 contracts over holidays.
I don’t disagree either. My comment was purely related to a previous comment that I may have read from You somewhere in this forum, related to system evaluation. You are definitely adopting a clever way to handle tail risk! Regarding your last question, I suspect that the only way to arrive at a conclusion is to get a calendar and manually check each sequence of trades… But I am not going to do that! 
I wouldn’t either! I really appreciate your input. I’ve also been around long enough to know I don’t know it all or know what I think I know. There’s obviously some smart trading behind 3 Fold so I always anxious to learn and ask questions. That’s the really cool thing with C2 from what I’m seeing. Thanks!
OK - I just dug around and figured out what you were saying about the numbers. Learn something new everyday! Thanks!
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I trade this system and have done very well with it so far. I have seen him stop out of positions when he feels the market might turn against him. he usually starts a small position to test and will add to it if trade is going in his favor. I will ride this money train for a long as I can.
Why do you think this system has a C2 score of 27?
