with the combination of systems I am trading, cutting a few out and adding others. I am up around 11% ytd.
How is everyone doing. Anyone have a good combination of systems or a standout system that is doing well for you. please share. so far event hunter still performing the best for me.
I have been a member since last summer. Was a big learning curve for me. Made some big money with ES ST IT however it went south Jan of this year. So I stopped trading Jan 31. My best system for me has been Event Hunter and Fast Nickles… I have also done well with Zero T. Please share with me or us what strategy’s you have done well with. thanks
I recently quit zero T. while there’s nothing wrong with the system oil is just alittle risky for my taste the drawdown spikes are a little scary from his chart. I joined fast nickles about a month ago and that is going well too. mcprotrader is doing well. I know there’s been lots of talk about the dangerous or selling options but so far no problems and hope it stays that way. I trade event hunter at 200% and I want to go up to 300% but don’t think I have the margin power since he sometimes holds multiple positions. I also trade r options and r option mini. 120% and 16% I quit all Es systems. They have all done terrible lately.
Hi TT3, very interesting topic! Would like to know how you calculate your gain? Some of the strategies use a substantial mount of cash for small gains then others …Perhaps you can elaborate on this, this way we can compare apples with apples.
I have been using c2 since last summer. Got burned with specifically one system - did not get out early enough and … Otherwise, my most successful strategies have been CkNN Algo and ZeroT. Most of the systems trading Futures are back to where they started and lost most of their gains (except for ZeroT). How many strategies are you running at the same time and what is your point to get out or switch?
I autotrade through IB so there’s an account analysis that shows YTD or you can just calculate based on my current account value and starting value.
I switch or quit a system if I notice the system creator trading erratic or not sticking to their plans. I noticed this with most of the ES systems when they failed to accept the market was going higher. I am running 13 systems. Some may say it’s too much but I like the diversification. My biggest mistakes have been joining systems that had short track records.
TT3, thanks for the infos. 13 systems seems to be a lot - not for the diversification, however, if you don’t want to trade each system with 10% or so, you will need a good size account I suspect???
I had about 10 systems and stopped the bad performing ones now having 6 systems running. I normally let them run for a 3 month period before deciding what to do next unless they are -as you mentioned - getting off track.
Question: do you limit your systems to e.g. only x-amount of contracts (Futures) or setting limits?
I don’t have many futures systems left but I look at their previous trades to see how many contracts they trade. Right now I scale riskier systems smaller and more stable ones bigger or ones that are currently hot and that I have build good profit cushion with them. I will probably reduce to 10 systems soon. uvxy trade is not doing well. I suspect many of the vix systems will begin to fail soon many have already started to trade sideways the last few weeks.
5% YTD. Would have been more but I was experimenting with a few futures trading systems that ended up circling the bowl.
So far, so good! My strategy is up almost 71% YTD.
Thanks for opening this topic TT3. I am up 18% YTD and my best strategies are R Options and Dont Worry. They also have the highest allocation in my portfolio. I shut down all the VIX systems as they have not done well and I assume that they have made most of their money already.
Neural Stark is up +4.8%, Commodities is +20.8% and Citadel is down 1.1%. Trading is a bit difficult due to some political issues. Citadel got hit when Brazil issues surfaced. Saying that I am looking forward to the rest of the year. Robert
I’m off to a great year on C2–my portfolio is up 38% YTD after commissions. CkNN algo has been one of my favorite systems since I signed up a year ago. Quantimer VIX and Event Hunter are also solid performers since I added them in February, although Event Hunter’s recent drawdown has me a bit concerned. Also, credit to SystematicBlueSp500 and Carma Stocks which have made steady profits with very modest risk since I signed up for them about a year ago. FYI, I’m definitely aggressive on my allocations, and I would not recommend it unless you know what you’re getting into.
Event Hunter is doing really bad. What makes it worse is that there is absolutely zero communication from the system developer no matter how many messages you send him. It seems as if he has gotten another job and does not monitor the position at all anymore.There is no other way to understand his current position in OIL. He bought at around $49 and is holding it even though Oil is below $46. For 4 contracts thats a drawdown of around $10,000 and it has been getting worse for last few weeks/days. He also did a terrible job of shorting ES. Till date i have lost around $8K using Event Hunter.
I like CkNN. My overall performance YTD is around 10%.
Can you share you scaling on these systems. thanks
I’m not willing to share my full allocations as I don’t want to get into any sort of “giving advice” territory. However, I’m happy to share a bit of my general methodology.
In general, I look to allocate based on a fixed drawdown per system. So I have a number in my head of what I’m willing to tolerate from a system in terms of its drawdown. Then, I consider what I believe the max drawdown of a system will be. This is largely discretionary, but based on a combination of historical drawdown, any backtests or Monte Carlo tests the developer has, and the worst point of any given trade. I typically then adjust my percentage allocation accordingly. I will adjust this down if I’m less confident in a system, or up if I have successfully traded a system for a while.
For example, I’ve given a larger-than-average allocation to CkNN, because I’ve messaged the developer and followed him for a year. A lower risk system like Carma Stocks also gets an extra large allocation. I’m actively considering cutting Event Hunter, not because of recent performance in general but because of lack of communication and the tremendous risk in the single Crude Oil Trade. I believe he’s got good long term potential, but I don’t like the risk that I would suffer a huge loss of Oil gets a negative price shock. If he offerred half allocations I would do it but since he’s already trading a lot of single lots, it’s just not feasible.
On the drawdown side, I have a fixed point at which I will scale back a system (assuming I still have confidence in them–sometimes I just eliminate the system upfront). This means my position size reduces as drawdown increases, which helps make sure that a system doesn’t get too out of control. Usually, if this point is reached it means my allocation was too big to start out with.
Even though I rely heavily on uncorrelated systems, I like to make sure that I am comfortable with what would happen if every system simultaneously went into drawdown. Past experience tells me markets are not stationary and often several good systems will either go into a drawdown or stop working altogether at the same time, no matter how uncorrelated they seem up to that point. So I want to make absolutely sure my risk tolerance can handle that.
In general, my account is up or down between 5-10% on any typical month, just to give you a sense of my overall volatility. In large months it can be as much as 20% in a month. I’m comfortable with that but most people might not be.
As we enter the 2nd half of the year. How is everyone doing? my account has been sideways for about 2 months and currently stands at 16% ytd.
anyone want to share their combination of systems and how they are doing?
4.4% since early April. Selling out of the money options on SPY. TOS. Looking forward to the rest of the year. https://collective2.com/details/110848286
I had my first down month this year (June, -4%) but for the year , my system is still up over 50%. July has gotten off to a good start (+5%), particularly with the action on 07/12/2017.
Including suscription cost:
+4.2% YTD (Only 1 month)
Guys, with due respect, I think the purpose of the thread is to share personal allocation of strategies, the choices made by investors and developers for their own portfolios. Not for developers to to self- promote their strategies…