For anyone that wants to see it, here’s my weekly report card. I also better explain yesterday’s trading because a few people asked me about it.
Yesterday started off with over $1000 locked in. See this picture. The cumulative net profit. https://gyazo.com/74b0d44ffc4a85c96a58e91525698516
Great day and could have called it a day. I took an NQ short and the first one worked out. There was a very large passive seller defending the area from 7308 to 7316 yesterday. He wasn’t aggressive in the sense that he was hitting bids but it was clear he was sitting there. There was a ton of volume put in at that level. To give you a sense, the value area high was up there and the point of control or the area where the most volume took place was also sitting right near the value area high. Buyers were also very aggressive at that level. With all that volume and all those aggressive buyers hitting offers, NQ couldn’t go higher. They hit it with everything they had and it wouldn’t budge. That clearly shows someone huge is accumulating a pretty sizable short position.
The first NQ trade I covered as NQ came down. Once it started to move up again, I started to build another short position. There was a chance NQ would move up again even to the highs. With a seller that size, it would be extremely rare not to be there wanting more or have more orders that need to be filled. I was happy building a position on that second NQ trade. I built a position of 5 contracts. That position did go back to the highs but the seller was still there. When it did that, I had a paper loss to eat up my entire day. NQ finally came down. At the time it came down around an hour before the close, it showed a profit of around $550. With another NG trade, I could have closed up shop and locked in $1300 for the day. Especially since it had just put me in a position to have a down day after being up $1000.
Here’s the tricky part. There was a low volume area from 7289 to 7285. NQ needed to push through and the next logical area was the 7238 area. With an area like that with low volume, there are tons of stops on the other side of that. We had downside momentum and a very large seller. I wasn’t too concerned about a bounce off that area because I’d expect traders would take profit there.
So here was my dilemma. I know it’s a low volume area and I’m going to run into problems there. I just had a trade that almost wiped out my day and now is offering a decent $1300 day. What happens if that area gets taken out is a very quick move down to 7238 or so. That was another area of support. With my position of 5 contracts, that’s an additional $6000. I actually thought at the time it was an additional $4800 but it would have been $6000. This would be on top of the $1000 already made. My upside was a huge $7000 day. My downside wasn’t terrible and there was a chance of even losing everything I made again and closing the day with a loss. I weighed all options and decided to go for it and hold the trade. We had a big seller and downside momentum. I needed to see the seller get aggressive at that time. I expected a slight bounce but wasn’t concerned with people taking profits from their short positions. I also was looking at my week. I was up for the week and I’d still likely be up even if the trade bounced and never went through that area. If I did lose for the day, it was likely an amount that I could recover from pretty quickly. If the trade took place on a Monday, I’m locking in profits and skipping the chance. If I was having a bad day, same I’m locking it in. If I didn’t have a built in profit as a buffer, I might have also skipped the trade. Considering all those factors, I went for it and missed. If I’m put in the exact same scenario, I’m going for it again. It goes through that area more often than not.
The trade played out early this morning. In trading, you have a very short window to make crucial decisions. Yesterday was one of them. Take the safe $1300 and close shop? Go for gold and a $7000 day? Risk a down day?
I had enough questions from subscribers. If they had questions, others probably are wondering the same thing. That’s why I explained the trade in the forums. I also explained the same thing in a broadcast yesterday to subscribers. Told them 7238 was where it was likely to go. NQ bottomed out today at 7245. Pretty close. The problem for me was it took place today not yesterday afternoon. Can’t always get what you want.
Have a good weekend all. It’s 5:00 somewhere. Mega Man is out.
This week
And this week’s chart
Since June 4th the start of last week
And the chart from the same period