These market meltdowns provide a good reality check for those strategies that overleverage and try to suck in subs with unsustainable returns through hopes that the markets will rebound.
Its about time for dog zebra to burry his head in the ground!
Let say IB require for each contract 1YM $6,500 for overnight. He must have at least $65k or IB will reduce the contract. He might have more money than what it shows in here but if any subscribers has the same capital what it shows from C2, he must have already margin call. Once YM below at 23,300 ( I’m just being generous), everything is $0. Off course before reach that number, IB will stop all activies. Very very unfortunate for this model, market is always changing n one person has 300% scale.
This strategy is actually the same as 3 Fold, but with different entry and exit execution. The trade signals are identical. Some months ago I asked him why he had two identical systems and he said that when he set up 3 Fold, he wasn’t fully familiar with how C2 execution logic worked and had ended up messing up how the system enters and exits. As a result, he created A Strategy, which is 3 Fold v2.0, with better entries/exits. I don’t know if that explanation is plausible or not because I don’t know if that’s how C2 entry/exit programming works, but that’s the story. I assume he shut down 3 Fold once his 3 Fold subscribers had migrated over to A Strategy for YM.
lol. I love that when I reply to this guy he can’t answer any questions I ask. Just comes out from under his bridge and screams in the air and runs away. Definition of a troll.
I still don’t know how he can be down 50% and able to add 1 more contract?
This is daily margin we are talking about right? If it’s daily margin, then why don’t c2 or hypothetical broker close those possible when he is holding overnight?
He cut his position from 11 to 9 two days ago before close of trading, which reduced his margin requirement back under his account balance. Then yesterday when DJI rallied a bit he was able to add back one contract, using the gains from the 9 contracts. Basically he’s walking on a knife-edge right now.
He survived. A pretty good comeback after a drawdown of over 50%! This system is not for the faint of heart…lol
With most of these high leveraged systems. As long as the mkt able to bounce back or the correction doesn’t more than a month they will survive keep averaging down.
He literally survived by the skin of his teeth. Another 200-300 points down when he was at the bottom of his DD and the system would have been toast. That little puke emoticon is very appropriate.
…and he’s back to 10 lots max size. That’s ~$13k/contract right now.
He is very professional but my ball cant stand with extreme volatility, DD is 60%. When everything bad and many noise from this forum and also other gurus ( they call him self as experts ), you can’t think clearly and will lead bad executions.
My suggestions are:
- You must trade this strategy with conservatively for example , only scale 50% eventhough you have the same capital with him. U must have enough liquidity to maintain ur margin requirements. You don’t want at some points, you get margin call n IB liquidate ur position. Again, when you have big capital, it doesn’t mean you have to use all ur funds.
- You must believe his systems. To many thoughts can kill recovery results. We always hear, if the market doesn’t comeback n we are in recession, u lost all money. That’s what people feel extremely fear during October this year.
- Don’t use this system if u can’t handle extreme DD or any doubt.
Do u lost a lot of money in this model? Margin call last month?
I’m invested but scaled just under 40%. I did an analysis of the volatility of his monthly returns a while back and it led me to the conclusion that the recommended minimum capital by C2 is hugely understated, and for the $100-$150k or so that the model is trading, with 6-8 contracts, one should be scaled somewhere around 30-40%.
I rode the drawdown down (it was painful enough even with the reduced scaling, I can’t imagine what it was like for subscribers at 100%) and I’ve ridden the recovery up so far.
Don’t feel good about him breaking his max position sizing rules, right at the bottom of a huge drawdown. That’s not a good sign.
Actually, I think it would be wise to use a scaling of 15-20%. The size he uses with overnite exposure can create huge drawdowns.
To be honest, I agree with u. To give plenty room during unexpected events n overnight.
Good to hear Phillip, u survive during extreme volatility.
If this model is not TOS 500% , only 1-2 months track records, n sometimes put in Private Startegy during high DD. Everyone should avoid this model but he shows accountability.
Other developers can only do critics n shows how great their strategy without putting his real money into trades.
This strategy survived barely by 1 or maybe 2 days. If ym was down 1 more day or had 2 days of volatility. The margin call would cut the positions in half. Then it would of been completely done.
Sadly I had 2 people dm me asking why their broker margin call them completely due to the 60% drop but c2 barely margin call the strategy. So I bet a handful of subs lost a lot of money and never got the chance of the bounce back. Sad
IMO this strategy was lucky that was NOT in ym during feb, because that would have broke past 90% draw down. Oct pull back was steep and if the rebound didn’t come back as quick I don’t think he had a plan to stoploss. I’m pretty sure he would just keep adding to the position to avg down more “hoping” for a V shape rally.
To those who survived this pull back consider your self lucky. You were 250-300pt away from losing everything.
Look at his autotrade fills. At the beginning of Oct he had maybe 20 subs, now he’s down to 6 or 7. Looks like a bunch of them washed out at the bottom of the drawdown - ouch!
The motto is ‘there will always be new subs’ for these kind of strategies. Since he’s TOS he must have a very large account in order to stay afloat and not get a margin call.
It certainly would have made a killing to short in October.
His newest system had a DD of 89% because of poor risk-management. (or lack of)
Where is Karla, we need her/him to shill how the strategy has recovered wonderfully after 65-90% DD, which probably almost blew out people accounts trading through IB.
This is something Collective needs to make more clear too, which brokers the strategy is using, tradestation for example has much lower margin requirements than IB. Should have a risk warning if following through a different broker especially with margin.