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A Strategy for YM gambler got a margin call!


#121

its official - its called KarlA’s contrarian indicator. As soon as KarlA praises a system, I am guessing he exits it :wink:


#122

aum108,

I got out of my long positions when Toni Caldaro issued his warnings (see Ominous Warnings) and while I was a little late in getting back in again I don’t regret it because I could sleep better.

BTW, I am glad I did not follow your endorsement for EF Futures and kind of regret it that I followed you Emini Volatility endorsement.


#123

I know you got out because of Toni Caldaro, well done.
I got out of this YM strategy already in February because of the poor risk-management.
You are back in this strategy after this huge DD? Really? What about Toni’s warning?

Yes, I mentioned Emini Volatility in the thread “Strategies making new all time or 52 weeks highs”
but I also mentioned that it was not a recommendation and that it will soon go south, and it did.
So far the DD is 12,6%. Makes you sleep better than 89% DD :wink:
Sorry, I don’t remember endorsing EF Futures…


#124

aum108

Yes, I am back in again for the moment, the past profits (I joined that strategy from the very beginning and before that I was a subscriber of 3 Fold) make way more up for what I lost this time.

The way I interpret Toni Caldaro’s latest update is that we can now expect a rally maybe up to 2835 (I am talking about the S&P and I expect the Dow to follow more or less) where it might be time to get out again, it could go down to about 2700, then a last rally maybe all the way to 2815 and after that the bear market will unfold in full strength. All this of course can change, the best thing is to check his site for the weekend and Wednesday updates.

Sorry, I confused you with someone else who recommended EF Futures, my bad.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend,
Karl


#125

Looks like the strategy owner is flat temporarily due to the current wild market moves. Can anyone confirm this or is he still holding some positions or changed bias to short?


#126

You should take full credit for getting out of those long positions :wink: If the analyst writes subject to interpretations, everyone is on their own, is’nt it…


#127

I’m sure he sold those 10 contracts by now. He got so lucky with the bounce back, no one in their right mind would ride this market back down again.


#128

Nope, he’s still long 9 contracts right now.


#129

When someone subscribes any models, they must forecast how much money they can lost instead of how much money they can make. It will give you better approach and risk management when the system does not work in any circumstances. I dont see any reason why holding 9 long contracts and market drop 600 points. Whats wrong with his indicator?


#130

Oh wow…whatever happened to the 6 contract limit?


#131

Another Dr Martin Gale disciple.


#132

He broke his own rules. I’m starting to get used to seeing this behavior on C2 now, more and more developers who set strict position size limits or say they have fixed stop losses and then break their own rules while everyone is watching.


#133

Thats quite troubling. Maybe thats why so many systems go bust. It seems that a track record is more important than anything else. But watch the system like a hawk and be careful he doesn’t go into too much leverage.


#134

Well least is not 11 or 15. Or else yesterday would have broken the strategy.


#135

I hate to suggest big-brother tactics but maybe C2 should OFFER strategy leaders the option to set position size limits which are then enforced by C2 so rather than the current case where the strategy leader promises to not exceed X they could actual configure those limits in C2 where everyone can see and then they have to live with that.


#136

C2 already offers that, but to subscribers, not developers. Subscribers can choose a hard limit max position size for a strategy.

This works if you just assume that every developer will break his own rules at some point and you can’t rely on him to stay inside the position limits he has set.

You can also set a fixed dollar loss limit for strategies where the developer promises fixed stops/fixed loss limits, and you want to assume that the developer will break his own rules at some point in the future.

edit: this particular strategy leader had clearly spelled out his sizing strategy in the strategy description, so it was publicly available for the whole world to see - and now it’s easy for the whole world to see how he’s gone way over it.


#137

Hi Phillip,

I am aware of the subscriber-side limits but while those are helpful they don’t solve all problems. If you put a 2 contract limit on and the system you subscribed to martingales down with 10 contracts you can end up with a trade that is closed for a loss while the strategy shows that they ended with a sizable gain (since they averaged down). So while subscriber limits can prevent big losses they can easily cause you to end up with vastly different results from the strategy even during normal trading.

If a strategy owner is stating that they will unequivocally never go over x contracts then they should be willing to accept that hard limit imposed by C2 because as we have seen time and time again, their words mean nothing when push comes to shove, even in TOS strategies.


#138

Could end up ugly if the nasdaq drops more.


#139

A guy funds a discount brokerage account with 10k. Creates a TOS strategy on C2 with a 100k model account. The guy is operating on 500 day and night margin. Enters trades at 10 contracts. Manages a drawdown of 50%. True loss…5k. Subscribers at 100% true loss…50k. If the guy charges $500 a subscription, he may be inclined to shoot for the moon in his trading. All depends on how much 5k really means to his assets. Most feel TOS is skin in the game. And certainly it is. Only the guy is exposing a slither of skin, while subscibers suffer full-body third degree burns.


#140

That is very true. There is always a way to trick the system. But c2 actually know the account balance of each acct that is connected. So technically c2 can “audit” these TOS % if they want to. But as long as the IB brokerage account is trading 5x Of trade signal he would get the 500% badge.