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Here is the systems that I currently have in the pipeline, about 3 systems are not auto traded.
So far I’m up this year.
ES ST IT
Russell Trending
SNIPER FUTURES
ETF crystal ball
Volatility ETF Trade
ANTARES SP500
R Option
Event Hunter
Xiv Daily Strategy
Mr Money Tree
Zero T
Manual Trading
UVXY Trade
average expectancy26
Gold Trending
Fault tolerance Trading
SNIPER FUTURES
Do you mind to share your experience from UVXY Trade? How long have you used it n what scale do you use it? Looks interesting but the strategy is still new and don’t have back testing.
Recently just started UVXY, scaling at 20%, so far it’s ok
moneytree emailed members today. says he didn’t martingaled but had 2 different trades that crossed over. he’s doing some new stuff.
Here is the full email:
I have been receiving a lot of messages about 2 contracts traded last night. I
did not trade two contracts in a one signal. There was two different signals
activated with one contract each. The stops and limits crossed each other so it
appears on C2 as two contracts were traded. One signal hit a 0.25% stop and the
other made a profit. I have implemented new trade signals to smooth out the
profit curve overtime. The old system stays in place. This means more trades on
the system. I am still using the 0.25% stops of total contract value. More
trades on my system means the limits and stops will cross over. If any body
strongly disagrees with me changing to improve your profits can you please let
me know. All I am trying to do is increase your profits and smooth out the
profit curve. Trading can be a bumpy road and a mental challenge at times. I am
trying to reduce the anxiety that the subscribers experience. I am absolutely
confident that the system will perform well into the future. All I am doing is
improving the system for you.
Sounds like he’s now trading at least two strategies at the same time, one of which is new and not represented in past C2 data and has unknown performance. He will now sometimes trade double the contracts without warning. This is why I turned off my auto trade the moment he mentioned a change the other day–not because of the drawdown, but because who knows what he’s doing and how it will perform.
I might be back later after whatever he’s doing is proven out but right now it’s a crap shoot.
Same here. Switched off today.
Is your P/L positive overall?
After 9 months, and a lot of mistakes made, I’m at a breakeven, maybe with the fees a small loss. But I learned a lot and I’m confident for this year to come.
I am pretty confident you will break even again by the end of 2017. 
Hi Leslie,
Just wondering why you would bother to follow any system other than your own if you indeed average ~20% per month over time.
Thanks,
Mark
What most people don’t realize is that there is no inherent edge in selling over buying and buying is much safer (unless you are hedged appropriately when you write). A lot of people seem to believe selling has some built in edge due to the fact that you are collecting premium and can write options that have a low chance of being in the money. What they fail to realize is that the math of the pricing takes care of all of that and you pay up once the unlikely event occurs.
Sometimes there is a mathematical edge in selling due to mis-pricing but it is not a consistent edge over time. The same holds true for buying. Other than that, buying or selling is normally priced so that neither is better than the other and if you could buy or sell the midpoint and pay no commissions you could “pick 'em” and end up even over eternity.
Your best edge by far is to accurately determine direction and if you can do that it’s not even close, you should be buying not selling.
I agree just mindlessly selling doesn’t provide much of an edge over long time horizons (when factoring in risk free returns and no leverage). One has to be “active” in order to make it worthwhile.
I don’t agree in terms of buying though. The problem with buying is the frictional costs in general, and especially when we are talking about OTM the wait for a tail event in order to overcome the drag will have poor consequences for compound returns. That is the key, you want to compound your returns and that is more effectively accomplished by hitting a lot of “singles” instead of a lot of strike-outs before a home run is hit.
One can achieve smoother return profiles with credit spreads vs. long directional options, one can also bet that “nothing happens” with both short calls and short puts, which you can’t effectively do with long-only options (barring trading the inverse volatility instruments).
To each their own but I vastly prefer trading credit spreads vs. long options, but both can be made to work however if employed correctly and one has a directional/timing model underlying the trading activity.
Do you agree that options are normally priced so that there is no inherent edge in buying vs selling all other things being equal? (Except for deep out of the money puts which are normally mis-priced to include a small amount of extra premium)
I think there is an argument to be made that puts are overpriced when rates are at extreme lows, and calls are underpriced in the same scenario. I think barring abnormal interest rate environments, they are normally priced in liquid / modern markets except for short stints where you get some bizarre supply/demand imbalances (which are quickly fixed and liquidity is often missing once these air pockets show up - so hard to take advantage of it without some sort of HFT capability).
One could also argue that S&P 500 puts are overpriced after 1987 given the circuit breakers now in place, however there is nothing that says it can’t go limit down for days (after cascading through the smaller breakers, 20% down a day, no fills, each day). It would likely take a “real” event to do that unlike 87 which was mostly a structural issue in my opinion, sort of an analog flash crash if you will.
I find studying crash events (and melt-up events in commodities) to be a worthwhile and interesting endeavor, lately my favorite as I’ve mentioned before is the EUR/CHF crash, which was life altering for countless FX traders…
VIX DayTrader 1
Created by:
JamesFrazer
VIX DayTrader 1
Created by:
JamesFrazer
VIX DayTrader 1
Created by:
JamesFrazer
We can compare option with insurance.
Do you think insurance is normally priced so that insurance companies do not make anything on selling insurance?
I think you are on the wrong track there wmwmw.
BTW, it looks like you linked an image but I’m not sure it is showing up correctly.
Thanks.
To reduce drawdown. A group of 15 uncorrelated but similar systems will run about 5% instead of 25%
Also, I can increase leverage if different systems are uncorrelated
Les
Over how long a period has your system generated ~20% per month with max 25% draw down quarterly?
I agree with a lot of what you have stated in this thread, but the “nothing happens” bet is accounted for in the math of the pricing, so there is no additional edge there. That is just a mirage that attracts a lot of bets. The problem with “nothing happens” bets is that when something happens it erases any supposed edge you thought you had over directional plays.
Also I don’t recommend otm tail event bets and I am not sure what you are getting at with the frictional costs as they would be lower than spreads if you trade the right options.
You are muting your returns with spreads if you can truly determine direction with consistent accuracy. (I am not against spreads and use them when I believe the pricing warrants it).
We have been trading since April. Back test for -2 yrs.
Pretty consistent, BUT, makes $ in periods of higher volatility, and loses slowly in low volatility. Our system is basically a trend follower - but we track various indices that tend to lead the VIX (by a small amount) and generate a signal. We have just finished testing the C2 auto-trade system, and are starting auto-trading the model here on C2. If all works as it appears, we will move to C2 exclusively over the next month.
Currently we are in a drawdown since mid Nov. Last Sept was very good (Brexit).
